Late changing odds

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Well (and I am sure you know this from poker), winrates are always a very small percentage of total handle, which is why it's very hard to "make a living" at 8/16 or 20/40 limit, or $500nl. You need to be betting large enough sums that your profit margin compensates you for all the work you put into the enterprise.

So perhaps the long term profit margins of these folks are small enough that they need to place large enough bets that they would, indeed, come to the attention of the bookmakers?

Here's how I look at it:

The enterprising bettor who is indeed profit-motivated should realize that he needs to branch out into baseball and basketball if he wants to end up betting enough money to make his venture "worthwhile". And...if he applies himself adequately enough in these daily games, then he should be able to secure a nice 6-digit income for himself without having to suffer the indignity of alienating the paranoid bookmakers. Of course, if our hero is more ambitious than that...then he needs to bring more creativity and legwork into his operation.

[Jeff P]

And if the enterprising profit-motivated bettor wants to scale up in order to earn a 7 figure income?

The creativity and legwork that goes with that might make for an interesting story.


-jp

.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If you place bets online or through a casino app...then your action can be tracked and your "success" could attract negative attention. But if you walk up to a sportsbook counter and bet $2,000 on a given game...what reputable sportsbook will turn away your action? Is it too much trouble to go to 5 separate sportsbooks in order to put down, say, $10,000 on a given game? These guys who complain that they "can't bet very large sums of money without getting turned away"...how much money are they trying to bet? And, if they are such serious operators...why don't they place their wagers in Vegas...where the betting outlets are so numerous?

It doesn't take Las Vegas sportsbooks too long to figure out whether you are a sharp or a square. The sharp players can be very helpful in both balancing action and moving lines in the right direction. The news of a sharp player making a bet in one sportsbook travels very quickly usually necessitating runners to get the bets in. All of which I am sure you know.

[lamboguy]

in the newly opened Encore Casino, Boston Harbour, they have $1-$3 no limit holdem, $2-$5 nl, $10-$20 nl. all of them have the same rake, 10% up to 5 dollars and a dollar for the bad beat.

they also offer up double zero roulette, dealer hits soft 17 and blackjack pays 6/5.

they wonder why they have to layoff 40% of their staff because along with their table games they have empty slot machines which have ultra high rake i am told.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

in the newly opened Encore Casino, Boston Harbour, they have $1-$3 no limit holdem, $2-$5 nl, $10-$20 nl. all of them have the same rake, 10% up to 5 dollars and a dollar for the bad beat.

they also offer up double zero roulette, dealer hits soft 17 and blackjack pays 6/5.

they wonder why they have to layoff 40% of their staff because along with their table games they have empty slot machines which have ultra high rake i am told.

I live in Southern California. We'd kill for that rake, and our cardrooms are filled with players.

[FantasticDan]

The 6th today at Parx.. 15/1 ML Quench My Thirst is 11/1 going in the gate. 9/1 when the gate opens. 9/2 on the backstretch.

[cj]

It was the 7th, just so people aren't looking at the wrong race.

Always good to look at the will pays. Sometimes it helps, sometimes not, but it is better than nothing.

These were the off odds, favorite down:

5-2
7-2
9-2
9-2

So the was the co-third choice, just a few bucks between them.

Double will pays went like this:

16.80
24.40
29.40
48.40
63.00
67.60

So there, was pretty much the co-fifth choice,

In the Pick 3, the was a solid 3rd choice.

The problem with this is that there wasn't much money in either the double (~12k) or P3 (~10k) compared to the ~43k in the win pool. I do think it was pretty clear the would never be 11-1, or even 9-1.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by cj

It was the 7th, just so people aren't looking at the wrong race.

Always good to look at the will pays. Sometimes it helps, sometimes not, but it is better than nothing.

These were the off odds, favorite down:

5-2
7-2
9-2
9-2

So the was the co-third choice, just a few bucks between them.

Double will pays went like this:

16.80
24.40
29.40
48.40
63.00
67.60

So there, was pretty much the co-fifth choice,

In the Pick 3, the was a solid 3rd choice.

The problem with this is that there wasn't much money in either the double (~12k) or P3 (~10k) compared to the ~43k in the win pool. I do think it was pretty clear the would never be 11-1, or even 9-1.

the people with conditional wagering and computer groups are alway going to lower that horse at the last minute. i highly doubt that horse got his money after the bell. (but there are plenty others that do!)

[cj]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the people with conditional wagering and computer groups are alway going to lower that horse at the last minute. i highly doubt that horse got his money after the bell. (but there are plenty others that do!)

I certainly wasn't suggesting any money came in after the bell, quite the opposite actually.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by FantasticDan

The 6th today at Parx.. 15/1 ML Quench My Thirst is 11/1 going in the gate. 9/1 when the gate opens. 9/2 on the backstretch.

13/2 on betfair a 31% better price on the x.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by cj

It was the 7th, just so people aren't looking at the wrong race.

Always good to look at the will pays. Sometimes it helps, sometimes not, but it is better than nothing.

These were the off odds, favorite down:

5-2
7-2
9-2
9-2

So the was the co-third choice, just a few bucks between them.

Double will pays went like this:

16.80
24.40
29.40
48.40
63.00
67.60

So there, was pretty much the co-fifth choice,

In the Pick 3, the was a solid 3rd choice.

The problem with this is that there wasn't much money in either the double (~12k) or P3 (~10k) compared to the ~43k in the win pool. I do think it was pretty clear the would never be 11-1, or even 9-1.

On the x it was

11: 5/2
2: 5
8: 11/2
10: 13/2

Allan

[cj]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

On the x it was

11: 5/2
2: 5
8: 11/2
10: 13/2

Allan

How much was actually on that race? Doesn't really help most of us anyway since we don't live in New Jersey.

[cj]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

13/2 on betfair a 31% better price on the x.

Allan

What about after the fees? I seem to remember these never really pay as good as they sound from the days when I had TVG. Am I off base?

[trifecta]

10th at Prx today, the Deep Canyon (15/1 ml), took the lead a few strides out of the gate at 27/1. Wired the field. Odds on my TwinSpires feed showed 27/1 the whole race. After the race was declared official, there was a 4 or 5 minute tote delay and then, when the results were put up, the winner paid $40.80.

Usually Keith Jones gets a little excited and will say something like "she's 27/1 or "hello" after a 27/1 wins, but in this race he didn't say anything other than call the winner and announce a tight finish for second. Then, well after they declared the race official, the track graphics said "Tote Delay". And then the $40.80 win price went up.

A little suspicious.

[cj]

Originally Posted by trifecta

10th at Prx today, the Deep Canyon (15/1 ml), took the lead a few strides out of the gate at 27/1. Wired the field. Odds on my TwinSpires feed showed 27/1 the whole race. After the race was declared official, there was a 4 or 5 minute tote delay and then, when the results were put up, the winner paid $40.80.

Usually Keith Jones gets a little excited and will say something like "she's 27/1 or "hello" after a 27/1 wins, but in this race he didn't say anything other than call the winner and announce a tight finish for second. Then, well after they declared the race official, the track graphics said "Tote Delay". And then the $40.80 win price went up.

A little suspicious.

There was obviously a problem as no odds were shown during the race, and Parx does show them above the top 4 runners usually. Possible Jones didn't get excited as he also couldn't see the odds. It would be nice if tracks were a little more forthcoming than just telling us there is a "tote delay", I mean WTF does that even mean?