NYRA- The Best Circuit to Play, Everyday

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Exotic1

Don't make fun . Andy's presentation of stats on Linda's horses are remarkable. He's made the correct point a few times - for some reason stats on her placement patterns (and ultimate results) are meaningful.

It would be true making fun if it wasn't a real consideration for me. I have some difficulty making an entire decision based upon some of the obscure stats he comes with, but in the case of Rice it does seem as though when he pulls one of these out and it boils down to a real positive stat or a real negative stat - the stat does seem to imply the eventual outcome a lot of the time when I'm paying attention.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Exotic1

Come on, that's understood by everyone. You take the hypothetical $2 wager and multiply it by a factor. That get us to the reality.

On the surface, it should be understood by everyone. However, such is not the case, as we still have those who "misinterpret" the information that is given, sometimes intentionally....I find it easier to always be a straight-shooter, that way there is little to no room for shenanigans of ridicule and nefarious nonsense.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

On the surface, it should be understood by everyone. However, such is not the case, as we still have those who "misinterpret" the information that is given, sometimes intentionally....I find it easier to always be a straight-shooter, that way there is little to no room for shenanigans of ridicule and nefarious nonsense.

Guess my mind is totally soiled; I thought that it was all just a setup to boast on your unit size.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

Guess my mind is totally soiled; I thought that it was all just a setup to boast on your unit size.

You'll have to go elsewhere for the person you're alluding to....

[Robert Fischer]

4th race could be a betting race

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

It would be true making fun if it wasn't a real consideration for me. I have some difficulty making an entire decision based upon some of the obscure stats he comes with, but in the case of Rice it does seem as though when he pulls one of these out and it boils down to a real positive stat or a real negative stat - the stat does seem to imply the eventual outcome a lot of the time when I'm paying attention.

With Rice for sure. The thing is, when you throw ROI into the stat analysis it could be misleading if you're just trying to "get through" the race in a multi-race sequence. Sure the ROI on a particular stat is important in that you don't want to bet undervalued horses. But if your goal is to "be alive" into a mid-price or long shot in your multi-race bets, then it's win % that becomes just as or even more important than ROI - to some degree obviously. If your intent is to make it to the next race, it's not our fault that the public is betting the right horse causing a high win % but low ROI. jmo of course. Not saying it's the right way to operate.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

On the surface, it should be understood by everyone. However, such is not the case, as we still have those who "misinterpret" the information that is given, sometimes intentionally....I find it easier to always be a straight-shooter, that way there is little to no room for shenanigans of ridicule and nefarious nonsense.

Ok, got it.

[Exotic1]

R3, have to agree with tlg. Of the #3, #4 and #5, the #5 is the best alternative to the #2.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

On the surface, it should be understood by everyone. However, such is not the case, as we still have those who "misinterpret" the information that is given, sometimes intentionally....I find it easier to always be a straight-shooter, that way there is little to no room for shenanigans of ridicule and nefarious nonsense.

I know I didn't misinterpret the information given, so I'd like to know who you're talking about. I read the whole thread 3x, don't see where anyone misinterpretted things.

Regardless, Race 9, Ouro Verde looks like a solid A in the last. 1,3 and 9 should set up enough pace for Cancel to rally up late (like Beach Hut ). If Ouro runs out of time, I think it's 94.

So win $100 4, $20 49 EX box. $200 place 4.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I know I didn't misinterpret the information given, so I'd like to know who you're talking about. I read the whole thread 3x, don't see where anyone misinterpretted things.

Regardless, Race 9, Ouro Verde looks like a solid A in the last. 1,3 and 9 should set up enough pace for Cancel to rally up late (like Beach Hut ). If Ouro runs out of time, I think it's 94.

So win $100 4, $20 49 EX box. $200 place 4.

Let's stay on point, pls. Just let me get the last word in

If RR is tabulating results based off of a hypothetical fixed base bet, then comparing his P&L results to someone who's bet size will vary greatly between bets, well let's say it get's difficult. While it's true that we're not in a head to head contest per PA's instructions, the waters still get a little muddied. In other words, RR's actual base maybe a $2000 factor or maybe more. His actual bets may increase based on winnings. Also and perhaps foremost, RR was the first to post his selections and chosen format... Having said all of this and just from a completely selfish view point, I appreciate both presentations. But no mistake about it, RR is the real deal and I'm sure you'll agree.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Okay fine, I'll come with another bum in the fourth since this one is back up where I thought he'd need to be to consider:


Quai Voltaire getting back to the main track.

Gimme $40 win and box in a $8 exacta with 3 and 5 for $$72.

If lose I'm playing one of those million dollar show parlays.

[EMD4ME]

I can NOT believe I'm about to say this.........


AWESOOOOMEE ride by mike luzzi

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Sunday April 2nd, 2017 thoughts:

......

Race 4: Almost anyone can win.

1) Like the way he's finished in last 2. (4YO vs 3YO)
2) FTS. Sire 1/37 with FTS but anything Rosario rides for Cannizzo I am interested in.
3) Hideous 1st out. Looks to be Need the Lead type. Drops. Hushion 3/6 with 2TS MDS to MDCL.
4) Best race can win it, decent Trainer change, Luzzi off, Maragh up. Likely. (4YO vs 3YO)
5) 2TS, can improve
6) not really liking (only 1 of 2 spds, what if 3 breaks bad?)
7) Not in love but is likely and do you want to blow a P5 to a 5/2? (4yo VS 3yo)
8) Maybe cut back helps closing kick? Big rider change

Using ALL on 1 ticket, then 47 to have it extra times, 1 extra ticket to the 125.

........

Is it too late for me to buy in?

[Robert Fischer]

So, Andy is hinting that Joe Parker's TIME SQUARED isn't to be trusted here.

Looking to hedge a DD of 1 to the 4 NO HAYNE.

388 is somewhat interesting albeit overbet @2-1...
Very Dull effort last time, and Diaz kind of fell asleep when he could have let the filly join the front-runners under her own power, but opted instead to take hold off the slow pace and then swing wide prematurely into the far turn, outside of phantom traffic.
In spite of the dull effort and flaky ride, she still caught the 3 for place and galloped out well.

The underlay is actually a potential positive sign (if it isn't just 'gravitation' to Linda).
Rare 'Post Parade' appraisal horse. Show me some life today, baby

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

...

If lose I'm playing one of those million dollar show parlays.

6 ran well. Oh well. Instead of a million, I guess I'll make it $28 so I only lose $100 playing magic money.

$28 show Archumybaby --> Dynamax Prime --> Mainpulated --> Verve's Tale --> Ouro Verde