NYRA- The Best Circuit to Play, Everyday

[Murph]

In the Wenseday finale 8th race I'm spotting longshot
Little Chiseler (NY) 3/F L $25,000 D Davis 117 G Sciacca 15/1

I've handicapped him to near second choice odds here. The ML fave
Sapporo (NY) 5/M L $25,000 K Carmouche 124 B N Levine 2/1 appears vulnerable to more than one runner on the ratings for this field. The top pick by my odds line is
Party Mint Star (NY) 3/F L $25,000 A J Ayala 1107 C F Martin 4/1

Considering getaway action it looks like to me all 3 could use a purse bump for moving expenses, esp GS. I favor Little Chiseler over Party Mint Star based on running style and a slight LP advantage.

If anyone is interested in the full card selections I was posting in the other thread I'll be happy to put them here (with moderators permission, I'm not trying to start more trouble here.) for this week to end of the meeting. Then I will stop with that type format for awhile.

A talented handicapper wrote years ago ..
"The perfect selection method, of course, is one that produces a good percentage of winners at moderate prices, but which also points out a winner now and then at really high odds. It isn't easy to find this happy combination."
Ray Taulbot

[Murph]

No takers, eh? Word!

Ending this AQU meeting early cannot be bad for anybody.

NYRA Spring Break

[PaceAdvantage]

I've forced myself to come up with three semi-interesting races at NYRA today...

Race 5:
6/5
3/1

Race 6:
9/5
2/1

Race 8:
5/2
5/1
6/1
13/1

I'll let you all know if any real $$ goes on any horse in those three races...because I know you're all dying to know...

PS. None of these races qualify as VRH races (and if you don't know what that means, check out my Value Races and Horses threads in Selections)

[whodoyoulike]

Aqu 04/19/17 BPP#1

race 4 8f T MC75k $52k f/m 3up relentless miss (NA 6) (9/5) (0/7 FTS)

race 5 7f cl20k $40k f 3yo jetsam six (P 1) (4/1)

race 6 8f sAlw57n1x f/m 3up abounding spirit (E/P 6) (3/1)

race 8 6f sMC25k $31k f/m 3up sapporo (P 1) (2/1) (1/13 FTS)

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I've forced myself to come up with three semi-interesting races at NYRA today...

Race 5:
6/5
3/1

Odds are too good...I've been sucked into betting both of them

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Odds are too good...I've been sucked into betting both of them

Loser + Loser = Loser

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Race 6:
9/5
2/1

won and technically both were bettable but I passed the race

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Murph

In the Wenseday finale 8th race I'm spotting longshot...

I thought that this was probably the most interesting race on the card because a quick breeze over the past performances and it sure looks like Sapporo is supposed to tow these around the track at 4-5.

But, there are a few interesting layoff horses coming back or firsters or secondsters or first time in the right spot types all over the field.

As I went through a second time, your pick of Little Chiseler was the first one to grab me and try to present a case for playing her. I don't keep the copious notes that I once did especially since I can usually tune into pre-game show and find out if I really care about a particular scenario, but I have a hard time giving Chiseler the credit for early speed that was part and parcel of liking her here. That Saratoga turf course if memory serves me seemed like it was a never-ending parade of wicked splits for much of the meet, so I'm not too sure what to make of her approach here.

This one I need to see a price on, but I stewed on With One Exception for a while. This one ran like a turkey in her debut against allowance maiden breeds, but we get a lot of what appear to be positive moves for the second attempt.

First the swift drop in to face bottom maidens, then the addition of Lasix, then putting blinkers on (31%, +ROI for barn), and best of all for me of course, an aberrant sharp work for her - presumably with a dose of lasix and some blinkers. I think that there's a pretty good chance that this one improves a lot. She needs to in order to actually outrun Sapporo, but up near double-digits in this field, I think she's a really attractive proposition.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Race 8:
5/2
5/1
6/1
13/1

On

Obviously, I did something wrong here? lol 4 & 2 are mega boxcars

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

On

Obviously, I did something wrong here? lol 4 & 2 are mega boxcars

How freakin' sweet was that?

Am I a handicapping GOD or what?

26-1 baby

[HuggingTheRail]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

How freakin' sweet was that?

Am I a handicapping GOD or what?

26-1 baby

Can't believe you give this away for free


Nice one!!

[PaceAdvantage]

And I'd just like to point out, every pick I've put on this board the last month or so...I have not once watched a replay, taken a trip note, noted any track bias, consulted any jockey or trainer stats...nothing but pure, cold numbers and betting overlays on my line. That's been my objective all along. To see how long I can maintain some sort of positive ROI without doing one lick of trip handicapping or anything outside the realm of NUMBERS.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

How freakin' sweet was that?

Am I a handicapping GOD or what?

26-1 baby

sa wheat... had the looks of the right race to play, but i couldn't find the 4.

[HuggingTheRail]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

And I'd just like to point out, every pick I've put on this board the last month or so...I have not once watched a replay, taken a trip note, noted any track bias, consulted any jockey or trainer stats...nothing but pure, cold numbers and betting overlays on my line. That's been my objective all along. To see how long I can maintain some sort of positive ROI without doing one lick of trip handicapping or anything outside the realm of NUMBERS.

Heck, it doesn't matter if you're using a Ouija board, a chant, and 11 herbs and spices - keep on going!

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Aqu 04/19/17 BPP#1

race 4 8f T MC75k $52k f/m 3up relentless miss (NA 6) (9/5) (0/7 FTS)

race 5 7f cl20k $40k f 3yo jetsam six (P 1) (4/1)

race 6 8f sAlw57n1x f/m 3up abounding spirit (E/P 6) (3/1)

race 8 6f sMC25k $31k f/m 3up sapporo (P 1) (2/1) (1/13 FTS)

race 4 8f T MC75k $52k f/m 3up relentless miss (NA 6) (9/5) (0/7 FTS)
Finished 3rd @ 1.15 0.00 0.00 3.10 Winner BPP#3 in 97.13

RELENTLESS MISS broke out at the start bumping and squeezing back JONQUIL in tandem with RUN BLONDIE RUN, established the front and showed the way in hand along the inside, came under coaxing nearing the quarter pole, spun three wide for home set down for the drive, inched away to the eighth pole, came under growing threat from a pair, dug in fighting on to the wire but was caught late by both and forced to settle for the show honors.

race 5 7f cl20k $40k f 3yo jetsam six (P 1) (4/1)
Finished 6th @ 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Winner BPP#6 in 86.14

JETSAM SIX raced two wide on the turn, was ridden four wide into the lane to no avail.

race 6 8f sAlw57n1x f/m 3up abounding spirit (E/P 6) (3/1)
Finished 1st@ 2.90 7.80 4.00 3.00 in 99.03

ABOUNDING SPIRIT prompted the pace from the four path down the backstretch, tucked to the two path half a mile from home, came under coaxing taking command nearing the quarter pole and swung three wide at that station, inched away under a drive to the eighth pole, dug in and held safe to prevail kept to task.

race 8 6f sMC25k $31k f/m 3up sapporo (P 1) (2/1) (1/13 FTS)
Finished 2nd @ 1.15 0.00 3.50 2.70 Winner BPP#8 in 73.60

SAPPORO broke out at the start bumping LITTLE CHISELER, chased just off the inside from mid pack, came under coaxing three furlongs from home, angled three to four wide into upper stretch bumping with PARTY MINT STAR, offered up a mild kick to secure the place honors.