NYRA- The Best Circuit to Play, Everyday

[NorCalGreg]

AQUEDUCT 4/9

1ST DARK ROAST 10-1

3RD JAYS WAY 5-1

6TH BOBBY FAB 10-1

7TH BREEZE BURNER 3-1


I'll total up after--NCG

[BETA]

Here are three potential plays:

AQU1) #2 Crowd Funding (MLO 8/1).... Like the turnback, turf-to-dirt, 141 day freshening and worktab...Figures to get a nice stalking trip.

AQU4) #8 General Bellamy (MLO 7/2).... Like the brief freshening and key jock switch for sharp trainer...Also, figures to get nice stalking trip.

AQU9) #4 Holiday Disguise (MLO 6/1).... Second time starter for sharp connections...Figures to improve stretching out to 7f off sharp recent work.

BOL!

[Murph]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

I feel better now having posted this one in the other magic money contest thread now that I know that you have it too. You, on the other hand, might want to hope for a scratch now that you know that I have it.

What is the draw to this FTS? Are you looking for the best 20-1 in the field? I would like to ask what makes him look worth it. I wouldn't have mentioned it unless two sharps, like you guys, were on the same beast.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Murph

What is the draw to this FTS? Are you looking for the best 20-1 in the field? I would like to ask what makes him look worth it. I wouldn't have mentioned it unless two sharps, like you guys, were on the same beast.

1) I found most of the field almost indecipherable from one another.

1a) I'm generally not someone who loves long easy works leading into a debut race unless the race is a two-turn mile or something like that. But, I really like his most recent work. Not the time or anything, just the decision to breeze five-eighths from the gate with a little pep in the step on the eve of a seven furlong debut.

1c) Rajiv. Not so much the fact that he's the best all-around full-time NYRA rider in my opinion, but that he lands here. I posted about a dozen more sentences originally to support this a bit, but I was way down in the rabbit-hole and it was going to make this factor seem like an important one when it isn't. It's just perhaps a little counterbalance to a minor dislike.

2) The potential for a price. Getting back to the plain one, I didn't find many in here to be much more likely than this selection. Maybe the connections of others have better numbers in this context or maybe the runner was a $2.774B KEE suckling sale purchase, but the prices in this field are probably largely going to be a product of those statistics. Which also means that Belle of the Spa should remain double-digits as a product of those numbers. And ultimately, without much disparity in my line, I'm going for something (admittedly at least partially for the contest that I had to come up with something without knowing the actual off-price) that I think will certainly exceed in odds the number I dream up based on my opinion of chance-o-win here.

3) The distance. Seven furlongs is always known as the tricky distance, but I like it for firsters like this in a field of maidens like this. Everyone seems to want the ones who 'ran out of racetrack' going shorter, generally, or one that they believe should handle the distance based on a route pedigree. I want the one that is going to ridden away from there and put into the race. If you can win at five-eighths, unless everyone rides the middle part of the race in contrast to almost every race I seem to watch from NYRA, you can't get a much breather mid-race as a speedster than you get at this distance. I think this horse is going to try for it, and I envision him breaking well in his most recent work, getting that breather for a good quarter or so, then being asked to finish a little. Perfect work to lead into a race like this where initiative is probably going to be the key to winning if nobody turns out to be some kind of steamer and they are, in fact, just a field of run-o-the mill maidens.

I should preview since I typed way too fast and probably reads terribly, but I gots to do some work.

[Dahoss9698]

I thought #4 Storm the Shore was very interesting in the 4th. This is the level he fits at and I've seen Gregory Deprima do this too many times to ignore it. First off the claim he steps up horses and then second off claim he drops them back down...usually within 1-2 weeks, thus the huge ROI second off claim. If he can avoid dueling with Try Flying he has a big shot at a price.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

1) I found most of the field almost indecipherable from one another.

1a) I'm generally not someone who loves long easy works leading into a debut race unless the race is a two-turn mile or something like that. But, I really like his most recent work. Not the time or anything, just the decision to breeze five-eighths from the gate with a little pep in the step on the eve of a seven furlong debut.

1c) Rajiv. Not so much the fact that he's the best all-around full-time NYRA rider in my opinion, but that he lands here. I posted about a dozen more sentences originally to support this a bit, but I was way down in the rabbit-hole and it was going to make this factor seem like an important one when it isn't. It's just perhaps a little counterbalance to a minor dislike.

The 5f gate breeze is good to see but nothing else on the w/o pops to my eye. Can't complain with a positive switch to Maragh. His stats for FTS are superior in this field in fact. So good I am not going to post them.

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

2) The potential for a price. Getting back to the plain one, I didn't find many in here to be much more likely than this selection. Maybe the connections of others have better numbers in this context or maybe the runner was a $2.774B KEE suckling sale purchase, but the prices in this field are probably largely going to be a product of those statistics. Which also means that Belle of the Spa should remain double-digits as a product of those numbers. And ultimately, without much disparity in my line, I'm going for something (admittedly at least partially for the contest that I had to come up with something without knowing the actual off-price) that I think will certainly exceed in odds the number I dream up based on my opinion of chance-o-win here.

I don't like to mention "the cap horse" around here too loudly. I put these FTS's in the same bean can and tossed them all out at once. Now look where I am ?!?

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

3) The distance. Seven furlongs is always known as the tricky distance, but I like it for firsters like this in a field of maidens like this. Everyone seems to want the ones who 'ran out of racetrack' going shorter, generally, or one that they believe should handle the distance based on a route pedigree. I want the one that is going to ridden away from there and put into the race. If you can win at five-eighths, unless everyone rides the middle part of the race in contrast to almost every race I seem to watch from NYRA, you can't get a much breather mid-race as a speedster than you get at this distance. I think this horse is going to try for it, and I envision him breaking well in his most recent work, getting that breather for a good quarter or so, then being asked to finish a little. Perfect work to lead into a race like this where initiative is probably going to be the key to winning if nobody turns out to be some kind of steamer and they are, in fact, just a field of run-o-the mill maidens.

I should preview since I typed way too fast and probably reads terribly, but I gots to do some work.

I ran 5 years, all maiden races stats on the sire for the tricky 7F distance only. I found a positive win rate of 20% and 50% ITM 46 starts, 9 wins, 23 ITM and average mutuel of 9.80. Positive 9% roi. This is the best rating in the field among these sires. Pure Prize is well bred and a proven sire over time. Rock solid with a FTS too but I suspect you may have already scoped this one out.

Dog gone it! This 9th race is important for me today. I am not likely to change my mind at this point but I'll be disappointed if one of these FTS's gets up for a win here. Unless it is Belle of the Spa that is.

Nice book on this runner, thanks JHS. I expect you still have some work to do on your inner eyelid survey.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Murph

Dog gone it! This 9th race is important for me today. I am not likely to change my mind at this point but I'll be disappointed if one of these FTS's gets up for a win here. Unless it is Belle of the Spa that is.

Nice book on this runner, thanks JHS.

I don't love this horse by any means. If you have one you love or a few you like, I'll root for them. I won't bet this race in all likelihood, it just looked like a spot where if you didn't have any very strong opinion and could make a circumstantial case for something at a price, you better take a shot.

This, for me anyway, was really nothing more than taking a stand against anything under 10-1.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

I don't love this horse by any means. If you have one you love or a few you like, I'll root for them. I won't bet this race in all likelihood, it just looked like a spot where if you didn't have any very strong opinion and could make a circumstantial case for something at a price, you better take a shot.

This, for me anyway, was really nothing more than taking a stand against anything under 10-1.

I understand my play is vulnerable and so the questions keep comming. Easy enough to pik3 what I like better and pass this late leg. One of these days I am going to have to take a risk though. AHH
There's always tomorrow!

[PaceAdvantage]

Let's try my line on a bunch of races today...the only race I am going to bet real money on at AQU is race #6 (will officially be in my Value Races & Horses thread of the day)...but let's see how it goes in others...

Race #1:

8/5
9/5

[Murph]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Let's try my line on a bunch of races today...the only race I am going to bet real money on at AQU is race #6 (will officially be in my Value Races & Horses thread of the day)...but let's see how it goes in others...

Race #1:

8/5
9/5

Will you post your line for the 9th race today, please?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Murph

Will you post your line for the 9th race today, please?

How can I with all those first time starters?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Let's try my line on a bunch of races today...the only race I am going to bet real money on at AQU is race #6 (will officially be in my Value Races & Horses thread of the day)...but let's see how it goes in others...

Race #1:

8/5
9/5

The temptation to bet the at 7-1 is too overwhelming...I'll be putting some real money on this horse, but it's still not going in the VRH thread...

[johnhannibalsmith]

I'll use this as a great excuse to not do anymore work and throw some magic money around even in this first, which I didn't like very much.

Dark Roast - Old decent main track races and a schedule that looks like they wanted to keep this one off the inner as often as they could find a race elsewhere are part of the idea. But, mainly sits at 7-1 and might very well be the one to be pot committed to a hard send on a drying track.

I think I'm stuck fifty magic bucks.

$20 Win = $20

$1 tri: ALL = $20

$2 pick 3: 3 - 2 - ALL = $10

stuck $100 in magic

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The temptation to bet the at 7-1 is too overwhelming...I'll be putting some real money on this horse, but it's still not going in the VRH thread...

Definitely think twice as i was composing a manifesto on that one as you posted this.

[PaceAdvantage]

just went from 7-1 to 5-1...