Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 10-03-2020, 12:01 PM   #31
woodbinepmi
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Baton Rouge, La
Posts: 1,403
Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy View Post
Does Hong Kong pps have running lines? Give us an idea of how the past performances look.
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...starter_r1.pdf
__________________
@ShaTinRacing
woodbinepmi is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-03-2020, 12:04 PM   #32
pandy
Registered User
 
pandy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,059
Quote:
Originally Posted by woodbinepmi View Post
Thanks.
pandy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-04-2020, 03:18 PM   #33
MPRanger
Registered User
 
MPRanger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Texas
Posts: 303
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Here's another phenomenon in models and factors I've noticed on occasion.

If you test a factor on "all" cases you will typically find that you'll lose the track take or thereabouts and tend to discard it.

I've seen cases where a factor seems to have no value at very short prices (everyone else sees it too) and very long prices (the horse may have a positive going for it but it's simply not good enough to win in today's race) but have some value among contenders that are not big favorites.

So maybe a guy like Benter incorporated the live odds into his model, but it may make sense to incorporate odds ranges also.


To account for multiple dependent variables;

Is it better to run a single multi linear regression
or multiple single regressions? Or is either way OK?
__________________
So sayeth the Ranger....
MPRanger is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-04-2020, 03:44 PM   #34
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,677
Quote:
Originally Posted by MPRanger View Post
To account for multiple dependent variables;

Is it better to run a single multi linear regression
or multiple single regressions? Or is either way OK?
That's a notch over my pay grade.

I'm doing simpler things.

I tend to test single handicapping ideas in my database to see if they have any betting value (for example showed speed against a closer bias). Then I start breaking them down into smaller and smaller categories (sprint, route, dirt, turf, stakes, claiming, favorites, longshots, turf routes, dirt sprints, projected to get loose today etc..)

If I find something negative or positive (in terms of ROI relative to the take) that doesn't look like it's due to a couple of fluky results, I create a permanent query that brings up all the horses that fit that category that are running today.

I have a bunch of queries like that to go along with my handicapping information.

I try to refine the queries over time and also try combining different factors. I also keep testing them to stay current and make sure they've been working well recently.

What I like best is when I find both a negative and positive inside the same race and the positive is a serious contender and the negative is the favorite. If the positive is probably not good enough to win, I'll see if I can construct something that makes sense where all he has to do is hit the board.

It's very hard to find sustainably positive stuff. I had one that was close to break even with no handicapping at all for a few years. Then it suddenly collapsed for over a year. I recently checked it again it's doing great in 2020 so far. So you can get whipsawed by some of this.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 10-04-2020 at 03:55 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-04-2020, 04:38 PM   #35
Poindexter
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,171
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
That's a notch over my pay grade.

I'm doing simpler things.

I tend to test single handicapping ideas in my database to see if they have any betting value (for example showed speed against a closer bias). Then I start breaking them down into smaller and smaller categories (sprint, route, dirt, turf, stakes, claiming, favorites, longshots, turf routes, dirt sprints, projected to get loose today etc..)

If I find something negative or positive (in terms of ROI relative to the take) that doesn't look like it's due to a couple of fluky results, I create a permanent query that brings up all the horses that fit that category that are running today.

I have a bunch of queries like that to go along with my handicapping information.

I try to refine the queries over time and also try combining different factors. I also keep testing them to stay current and make sure they've been working well recently.

What I like best is when I find both a negative and positive inside the same race and the positive is a serious contender and the negative is the favorite. If the positive is probably not good enough to win, I'll see if I can construct something that makes sense where all he has to do is hit the board.

It's very hard to find sustainably positive stuff. I had one that was close to break even with no handicapping at all for a few years. Then it suddenly collapsed for over a year. I recently checked it again it's doing great in 2020 so far. So you can get whipsawed by some of this.

IMO, every angle should approach losing the track take. Not claiming the market is totally efficient, but just because a horse has an angle going for him that is "hidden gold" doesn't mean the horse is going to be under bet. Most horses are over bet to some degree. Say hypothetically you have a magical computer that has the ability to give with 100% accuracy the chances of each horse winning a race. It would go something like this

computer chances, final odds

1) 3-1, 4-1
2) 5/2, 7/5
3) 6-1, 5-1
4) 6-1, 6-1
5) 7-2, 2-1

Now you multiply this type of activity by 1000s of races and the majority of horses will be bet too much, no matter what factors they have going for them. In the hypothetical race only 1 horse is has a positive roi and whether he has the "magical angle" that you are looking for is pretty random.

Let's say my magical angle is that horses that finish well beaten in last 3 races but all of a sudden show speed to the first call in their last race and are dropping significantly in class, that sounds to me like a very solid angle. The increased early speed a sign the horse is sharper (maybe even a sign the the barn is getting the horse ready so they can make a betting score), the fact he is well beaten in last 3 races so he appears off form to most, but at the same time for any number of reasons he can be over bet in this upcoming race despite having what is likely a positive angle going for him.

I have never done the angle hunting thing via computer(so I am speaking only using logic not with any experience in doing so), but I do think in general you are looking for angles that lose significantly below the track take (maybe 50% to 60% of it) or significantly above the track take(maybe 50% above), but imo these are not to make money to bet blindly but positive/negative factors that you would use to incorporate a more accurate estimation of each horses chances today (or a better odd line for those of us who believe that there is a purpose for making our own odds line).
Poindexter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-05-2020, 09:24 AM   #36
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,677
The way I see it, you looking for fundamental handicapping factors that are not fully appreciated on the odds board these days.

That could be anything from a new and improved way of calculating speed and pace figures, to a specific trainer angle that is not in the publicly available stats, to a very specific track bias situation or trip, to better pace projections, and so on etc..

It's going to be tough to find anything that's profitable on it's own. But there will be specific situations where you dislike the favorite for some reason and another horse has some hidden merit. If your information is well researched, that race is probably fertile ground for finding an actual overlay as opposed to some subjective opinion based on what could be a flawed handicapping and a flawed odds line.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-05-2020, 11:44 AM   #37
Poindexter
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,171
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
The way I see it, you looking for fundamental handicapping factors that are not fully appreciated on the odds board these days.

That could be anything from a new and improved way of calculating speed and pace figures, to a specific trainer angle that is not in the publicly available stats, to a very specific track bias situation or trip, to better pace projections, and so on etc..

It's going to be tough to find anything that's profitable on it's own. But there will be specific situations where you dislike the favorite for some reason and another horse has some hidden merit. If your information is well researched, that race is probably fertile ground for finding an actual overlay as opposed to some subjective opinion based on what could be a flawed handicapping and a flawed odds line.
You and I approach this game differently. My subjective opinion is all that matter to me. My flawed odds line is just putting my subjective opinion as a estimated probability for each horses chance of winning. My ultimate goal is to learn how to adjust (blend) my odds line so that it can be profitable, much like Benter did years ago. I am making big strides in that department and am confident I am heading in the right direction. Will I get to where I want to get too, time will tell. If I don't, I am having a great time trying, so it is all good. Worse case scenario is I can hold my own in Harness racing. I can tell you this, due to my very busy life, I don't line nearly as many races as I would like to, but I can tell you that time and time again when I do line races, I feel I gain a perspective that makes it well worth the effort. To me every race, every double, every pick 3, every pick 4, every pick 5, every exacta, every tri, every super may be a potential opportunity. Also, the scores (or too often the scores you fail to execute properly on) often come up when you least expect it. Imo as a horse bettor you have a full arsenal of weapons to really beat this game up, but if you don't put forth the effort to hone your line making skills, and do the research to figure out how to use value as a tool, I feel you just will never reach your full potential in this game. Doesn't mean you won't win, I just believe there is always room for improvement, especially in this game.
Poindexter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-05-2020, 03:29 PM   #38
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,677
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
You and I approach this game differently. My subjective opinion is all that matter to me. My flawed odds line is just putting my subjective opinion as a estimated probability for each horses chance of winning. My ultimate goal is to learn how to adjust (blend) my odds line so that it can be profitable, much like Benter did years ago. I am making big strides in that department and am confident I am heading in the right direction. Will I get to where I want to get too, time will tell. If I don't, I am having a great time trying, so it is all good. Worse case scenario is I can hold my own in Harness racing. I can tell you this, due to my very busy life, I don't line nearly as many races as I would like to, but I can tell you that time and time again when I do line races, I feel I gain a perspective that makes it well worth the effort. To me every race, every double, every pick 3, every pick 4, every pick 5, every exacta, every tri, every super may be a potential opportunity. Also, the scores (or too often the scores you fail to execute properly on) often come up when you least expect it. Imo as a horse bettor you have a full arsenal of weapons to really beat this game up, but if you don't put forth the effort to hone your line making skills, and do the research to figure out how to use value as a tool, I feel you just will never reach your full potential in this game. Doesn't mean you won't win, I just believe there is always room for improvement, especially in this game.
I have no problem with any approach that gets you to the promised land.

I tried making odds lines. I tried ranking horses in order of preference. I tried just going by feel when the odds looked way off compared to what my handicapping suggested. I had some success with all. The reason I've been changing is that I know there is information being built into the prices of some horses that I don't have access to and sometimes I simply don't understand a horse or situation well and am wrong. So I'm trying to eliminate some of that by focusing on situations I have studied and believe still have value. That's where most of my overlays used to come from when I was assigning an odds line to every horse anyway.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 10-05-2020 at 03:30 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-07-2020, 06:14 AM   #39
MPRanger
Registered User
 
MPRanger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Texas
Posts: 303
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I have no problem with any approach that gets you to the promised land.

So I'm trying to eliminate some of that by focusing on situations I have studied and believe still have value. That's where most of my overlays used to come from when I was assigning an odds line to every horse anyway.

Maybe the handicapping factors still work as before but the overlay you find is being bet down to an underlay at the last second by some group who is getting a kick back on volume. Still an overlay to them but not to you.
__________________
So sayeth the Ranger....
MPRanger is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-07-2020, 09:55 AM   #40
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,677
Quote:
Originally Posted by MPRanger View Post
Maybe the handicapping factors still work as before but the overlay you find is being bet down to an underlay at the last second by some group who is getting a kick back on volume. Still an overlay to them but not to you.
I suspect one of the problems is that major players come and go or do research and change their own betting patterns. So we are dealing with a moving target in terms of where the value is located.

That's the scarier part of the way I play now. Something can work for quite awhile but other players may be slowly chipping away at any value that exists.

When you are going bad is it some random negative distribution or has something changed?

It's hard to know.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-07-2020, 10:02 PM   #41
FakeNameChanged
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,818
What If we generated an Auto Odds Line

Using each horse's last five actual odds, we generate a predictive odds line to compare to actual odds. Then using a range, say +/- 25% we see who is falling inside or outside that range. Naturally there could be ways to make some adjustments based on finish last race or two, and class drops/rise, etc. I would make the average of the odds an exponential one, so that the last two carry more weight than previous three.

I know using a range, + or - 25%, is just a starting point. Using excel if you wanted, you could use a range within +/- 2 sigma limits or more. I know from following odds and betting for a long time, that often there will be only horse that will vary a lot from the ML. And often, there will be several.


The following chart(see link) shows three horses out of 8 that are outside those limits. Since the #1 is only slightly outside the 25% range, I'd only look at the #4, who is -61% below the predictive odds and #5 who is +45% above the predictive odds line. Is there some factor in their pp's that warrants #4 being bet much below where it usually is bet? Or does the #5 have the kind of value over its usual odds line? We've all seen a horse that's cold on the board, nothing's simple in this game.


https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...it?usp=sharing
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
FakeNameChanged is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-08-2020, 10:46 AM   #42
FakeNameChanged
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,818
Auto Odds line-rev.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged View Post
Using each horse's last five actual odds, we generate a predictive odds line to compare to actual odds. Then using a range, say +/- 25% we see who is falling inside or outside that range. Naturally there could be ways to make some adjustments based on finish last race or two, and class drops/rise, etc. I would make the average of the odds an exponential one, so that the last two carry more weight than previous three.

I know using a range, + or - 25%, is just a starting point. Using excel if you wanted, you could use a range within +/- 2 sigma limits or more. I know from following odds and betting for a long time, that often there will be only horse that will vary a lot from the ML. And often, there will be several.


The following chart(see link) shows three horses out of 8 that are outside those limits. Since the #1 is only slightly outside the 25% range, I'd only look at the #4, who is -61% below the predictive odds and #5 who is +45% above the predictive odds line. Is there some factor in their pp's that warrants #4 being bet much below where it usually is bet? Or does the #5 have the kind of value over its usual odds line? We've all seen a horse that's cold on the board, nothing's simple in this game.
Revised the auto odds line chart to show current odds more like tote board. That change takes the #1 out of consideration from previous statement.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...it?usp=sharing
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.

Last edited by FakeNameChanged; 10-08-2020 at 10:49 AM. Reason: correction
FakeNameChanged is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-08-2020, 12:33 PM   #43
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 39,075
My analysis centers about normalization. Recently, in my multiple re-reads of the book "Chaos Theory" I was curious about a term I read, renormalization. Look it up. It seems well beyond my pay grade. Would it have any application to horse racing analysis? Actually I may be doing it without knowing it🙂
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-08-2020, 01:58 PM   #44
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 16,625
Thumbs up

Quote:
Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged View Post
Using each horse's last five actual odds, we generate a predictive odds line to compare to actual odds. Then using a range, say +/- 25% we see who is falling inside or outside that range. Naturally there could be ways to make some adjustments based on finish last race or two, and class drops/rise, etc. I would make the average of the odds an exponential one, so that the last two carry more weight than previous three.

I know using a range, + or - 25%, is just a starting point. Using excel if you wanted, you could use a range within +/- 2 sigma limits or more. I know from following odds and betting for a long time, that often there will be only horse that will vary a lot from the ML. And often, there will be several.

The following chart(see link) shows three horses out of 8 that are outside those limits. Since the #1 is only slightly outside the 25% range, I'd only look at the #4, who is -61% below the predictive odds and #5 who is +45% above the predictive odds line. Is there some factor in their pp's that warrants #4 being bet much below where it usually is bet? Or does the #5 have the kind of value over its usual odds line? We've all seen a horse that's cold on the board, nothing's simple in this game.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...it?usp=sharing
I just wanted to congratulate you on discovering what many of us who follow money flow have realized for quite some time. While the handicappers attempt to develop their own subjective odds line for each entry based on PP data, others like us realize that the actual odds line has already been presented, and itís completely objective.
How itís interpreted is another story, but it looks like youíre headed in the right direction.
GL
Nick
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-09-2020, 10:35 AM   #45
MPRanger
Registered User
 
MPRanger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Texas
Posts: 303
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post

others like us realize that the actual odds line has already been presented, and itís completely objective.

Nick
Well, why didn't you just say so? Why all the beating around the bush?
Is there anything else you're not telling us?

Interesting.
__________________
So sayeth the Ranger....
MPRanger is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
preferred pick 5 type
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:57 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2021 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.