2020 US Presidential election odds

[davew]

Trump indicted for what?

[hcap]

Even Peggy Noonan staunch conservative is giving up on Trump.
From the WSJ...

The Week It Went South for Trump
He hasn’t been equal to the crises. He never makes anything better. And everyone kind of knows.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-wee...mp-11593127733

......On Wednesday a Siena College/New York Times poll found Joe Biden ahead 50% to 36%. It’s a poll four months out, but it’s a respectable one and in line with others. (A week before, a Fox News poll had Mr. Biden leading 50% to 38%. The president denounced it as a fantasy.) This week’s poll had Mr. Biden leading among women by 22 points—a bigger lead than Hillary Clinton enjoyed in 2016. He has moderates by 33 points, independents by 21. On Thursday a separate Times/Siena poll had Mr. Trump losing support in the battleground states that put him over the top in 2016. His “once-commanding advantage among white voters has nearly vanished,” the Times wrote.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Track Collector

No, Democrats pander and give lip service to minorities, but do little to help them.

That is absolutely true, Track Collector.

(since I am not a partisan-zombie-lockstepper, I can see these things more objectively. )

They also noticed they've not been helped by Republicans either.

Originally Posted by Track Collector

You would think that some day people would wake up and realize that same old, same old, has not been working.

And, that's exactly what is happening.



Right wing provocateurs arguing about pronouns, or whether somebody is a commie, socialist, and late night tweets from politicians on either side don't impress them.

They are looking for meaningful movement on policy issues.


And they will vote for those who they believe can deliver on that. It might be a piecemeal enchilada but they will look for some incremental improvement.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by clicknow

(since I am not a partisan-zombie-lockstepper, I can see these things more objectively. )

Clearly.

[biggestal99]

Betfair next president market

Biden 1.68
Trump 2.90

The market has given up trump for the time being.
Nobody is playing him.

Allan

[lamboguy]

519 Republican Nominee wins Florida -120
520 Democratic Nominee wins Florida -120

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by hcap

I agree partially with Joe Scarborough. If Trump thinks the odds are he will not win, he would rather avoid that world of hurt probably seeking asylum with one of his autocratic friends in Russia, Turkey or wherever extradition does not apply.

Hyperbole much?

[biggestal99]

Betfair next president market

Biden 1.68
Trump 2.94

The market has given up trump for the time being.
Nobody is playing him.

Allan

[lamboguy]

2020 US Presidential Election - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
111 Republican wins Presidential Election +155
112 Democrat wins Presidential Election -175
113 Republican wins Presidential Election +155
114 Field wins Presidential Election -175
115 Democrat wins Presidential Election -171
116 Field wins Presidential Election +151
117 Libertarian wins Presidential Election +48000
118 Field wins Presidential Election -96000
119 Green wins Presidential Election +60000
120 Field wins Presidential Election -120000
121 Republican/Democrat wins Election -60000
122 Libertarian/Green wins Election +20000
2020 US Presidential Election - Propositions - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
131 Joe Biden wins Popular Vote -500
132 Donald Trump wins Popular Vote +400
133 Biden wins Elections & Popular Vote -165
134 Any other result +125
135 Biden loses Elections & Popular Vote +400
136 Any other result -600
137 Biden wins Elections loses Popular Vote +1100
138 Any other result -2300
139 Biden loses Elections wins Popular Vote +160
140 Any other result -210
United States Congress - Majority Control of Senate - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
181 Democratic Senators in 117th Congress -160
182 Republican Senators in 117th Congress +120
United States Congress - Majority Control of The House of Representatives - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
183 DEM Representatives in 117th Congress -635
184 REP Representatives in 117th Congress +415
United States Congress - Control of Senate & House of Representatives - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
185 DEM control House REP control Senate +155
186 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -195
187 Democrats control House & Senate -140
188 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 +100
189 Republican control House & Senate +420
190 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -650
191 REP control House DEM control Senate +5000
192 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 -20000
2020 US Presidential Election - Democratic Party Sweep - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
193 DEMS win Election + Senate + Lower House -140
194 Any other balance of power on 01/21/21 +100
2020 US Presidential Election - Electoral Votes Winner - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
501 Republican Nominee wins Alabama -2600
502 Democratic Nominee wins Alabama +1200
503 Republican Nominee wins Alaska -975
504 Democratic Nominee wins Alaska +525
505 Republican Nominee wins Arizona +100
506 Democratic Nominee wins Arizona -140
507 Republican Nominee wins Arkansas -1700
508 Democratic Nominee wins Arkansas +800
509 Republican Nominee wins California +1850
510 Democratic Nominee wins California -5550
511 Republican Nominee wins Colorado +500
512 Democratic Nominee wins Colorado -900
513 Republican Nominee wins Connecticut +850
514 Democratic Nominee wins Connecticut -1750
515 Republican Nominee wins Delaware +1200
516 Democratic Nominee wins Delaware -2600
517 Republican Nominee wins Dist of Columbia +3150
518 Democratic Nominee wins Dist of Columbia -11450
519 Republican Nominee wins Florida +115
520 Democratic Nominee wins Florida -155
521 Republican Nominee wins Georgia -160
522 Democratic Nominee wins Georgia +120
523 Republican Nominee wins Hawaii +2050
524 Democratic Nominee wins Hawaii -6150
525 Republican Nominee wins Idaho -5400
526 Democratic Nominee wins Idaho +1800
527 Republican Nominee wins Illinois +1375
528 Democratic Nominee wins Illinois -3425
529 Republican Nominee wins Indiana -900
530 Democratic Nominee wins Indiana +500
531 Republican Nominee wins Iowa -190
532 Democratic Nominee wins Iowa +150
533 Republican Nominee wins Kansas -1200
534 Democratic Nominee wins Kansas +600
535 Republican Nominee wins Kentucky -1500
536 Democratic Nominee wins Kentucky +700
537 Republican Nominee wins Louisiana -2000
538 Democratic Nominee wins Louisiana +1000
539 Republican Nominee wins Maine +325
540 Democratic Nominee wins Maine -475
541 Republican Nominee wins Maryland +1100
542 Democratic Nominee wins Maryland -2300
543 Republican Nominee wins Massachusetts +1450
544 Democratic Nominee wins Massachusetts -4050
545 Republican Nominee wins Michigan +215
546 Democratic Nominee wins Michigan -295
547 Republican Nominee wins Minnesota +250
548 Democratic Nominee wins Minnesota -350
549 Republican Nominee wins Mississippi -1500
550 Democratic Nominee wins Mississippi +700
551 Republican Nominee wins Missouri -750
552 Democratic Nominee wins Missouri +450
553 Republican Nominee wins Montana -900
554 Democratic Nominee wins Montana +500
555 Republican Nominee wins Nebraska -2300
556 Democratic Nominee wins Nebraska +1100
557 Republican Nominee wins Nevada +330
558 Democratic Nominee wins Nevada -490
559 Republican Nominee wins New Hampshire +220
560 Democratic Nominee wins New Hampshire -300
561 Republican Nominee wins New Jersey +700
562 Democratic Nominee wins New Jersey -1500
563 Republican Nominee wins New Mexico +550
564 Democratic Nominee wins New Mexico -1050
565 Republican Nominee wins New York +2100
566 Democratic Nominee wins New York -6300
567 Republican Nominee wins North Carolina -110
568 Democratic Nominee wins North Carolina -130
569 Republican Nominee wins North Dakota -2600
570 Democratic Nominee wins North Dakota +1200
571 Republican Nominee wins Ohio -140
572 Democratic Nominee wins Ohio +100
573 Republican Nominee wins Oklahoma -2600
574 Democratic Nominee wins Oklahoma +1200
575 Republican Nominee wins Oregon +900
576 Democratic Nominee wins Oregon -1850
577 Republican Nominee wins Pennsylvania +185
578 Democratic Nominee wins Pennsylvania -265
579 Republican Nominee wins Rhode Island +950
580 Democratic Nominee wins Rhode Island -1950
581 Republican Nominee wins South Carolina -900
582 Democratic Nominee wins South Carolina +500
583 Republican Nominee wins South Dakota -1850
584 Democratic Nominee wins South Dakota +900
585 Republican Nominee wins Tennessee -1500
586 Democratic Nominee wins Tennessee +700
587 Republican Nominee wins Texas -285
588 Democratic Nominee wins Texas +205
589 Republican Nominee wins Utah -975
590 Democratic Nominee wins Utah +525
591 Republican Nominee wins Vermont +1500
592 Democratic Nominee wins Vermont -4500
593 Republican Nominee wins Virginia +500
594 Democratic Nominee wins Virginia -900
595 Republican Nominee wins Washington +1150
596 Democratic Nominee wins Washington -2450
597 Republican Nominee wins West Virginia -2600
598 Democratic Nominee wins West Virginia +1200
599 Republican Nominee wins Wisconsin +175
600 Democratic Nominee wins Wisconsin -245
601 Republican Nominee wins Wyoming -3600
602 Democratic Nominee wins Wyoming +1400
2020 US Presidential Election - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
101 Joe Biden wins Presidential Election -171
102 Donald Trump wins Presidential Election +151
2020 US Presidential Election - Electoral College Winning Margin - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
201 Trump wins by 280+ electoral votes +1100
202 Any other result -2300
203 Trump wins by 210-279 electoral votes +3500
204 Any other result -13500
205 Trump wins by 150-209 electoral votes +2500
206 Any other result -7500
207 Trump wins by 100-149 electoral votes +1400
208 Any other result -3600
209 Trump wins by 60-99 electoral votes +1000
210 Any other result -2000
211 Trump wins by 30-59 electoral votes +800
212 Any other result -1700
213 Trump wins by 10-29 electoral votes +1150
214 Any other result -2450
215 Trump wins by 1-9 electoral votes +1500
216 Any other result -4500
217 Electoral College tied 269-269 +3300
218 Electoral College not tied 269-269 -12100
219 J.Biden wins by 280+ electoral votes +450
220 Any other result -750
221 J.Biden wins by 210-279 electoral votes +500
222 Any other result -900
223 J.Biden wins by 150-209 electoral votes +500
224 Any other result -900
225 J.Biden wins by 100-149 electoral votes +350
226 Any other result -530
227 J.Biden wins by 60-99 electoral votes +600
228 Any other result -1200
229 J.Biden wins by 30-59 electoral votes +1000
230 Any other result -2000
231 J.Biden wins by 10-29 electoral votes +1375
232 Any other result -3425
233 J.Biden wins by 1-9 electoral votes +1500
234 Any other result -4500
2020 US Presidential Election - Popular Vote Winning Margin - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
251 Trump wins popular vote by 10.5% or more +3800
252 Any other result -14600
253 Trump wins popular vote by 9% - 10.49% +3500
254 Any other result -13500
255 Trump wins popular vote by 7.5% - 8.99% +3500
256 Any other result -13500
257 Trump wins popular vote by 6% - 7.49% +3300
258 Any other result -12100
259 Trump wins popular vote by 4.5% - 5.99% +3000
260 Any other result -11000
261 Trump wins popular vote by 3% - 4.49% +2500
262 Any other result -7500
263 Trump wins popular vote by 1.5% - 2.99% +1200
264 Any other result -2600
265 Trump wins pop vote by less than 1.49% +925
266 Any other result -1875
267 Biden wins popular vote by 10.5% or more +525
268 Any other result -975
269 Biden wins popular vote by 9% - 10.49% +1167
270 Any other result -2500
271 Biden wins popular vote by 7.5% - 8.99% +550
272 Any other result -1050
273 Biden wins popular vote by 6.00% - 7.49% +350
274 Any other result -530
275 Biden wins popular vote by 4.5% - 5.99% +440
276 Any other result -720
277 Biden wins popular vote by 3% - 4.49% +500
278 Any other result -900
279 Biden wins popular vote by 1.5% - 2.99% +850
280 Any other result -1750
281 Biden wins pop vote by less than 1.49% +900
282 Any other result -1850
2020 US Presidential Election - Propositions - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
901 Trump wins every state he won in 2016 +550
902 Trump loses a state he won in 2016 -1050
903 Trump loses every state he lost in 2016 -280
904 Trump wins a state he lost in 2016 +200
905 Winner of pop vote wins elect college -280
906 Winner of pop vote loses elect college +200

[highernote]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Betfair next president market

Biden 1.68
Trump 2.94

The market has given up trump for the time being.
Nobody is playing him.

Allan

Hillary was the huge favorite last time. Trump was a great bet at about 30-1.

Not much value here.

The more interesting bet to me is who will be the dem VP.

I'm thinking Warren is more likely to be picked because if Biden wins the VP will most likely be the leading candidate in 2024 because Biden may not be able to run due to age or health.

Warren is a more popular presidential candidate than Harris.

[barahona44]

Originally Posted by highernote

Hillary was the huge favorite last time. Trump was a great bet at about 30-1.

Not much value here.

The more interesting bet to me is who will be the dem VP.

I'm thinking Warren is more likely to be picked because if Biden wins the VP will most likely be the leading candidate in 2024 because Biden may not be able to run due to age or health.

Warren is a more popular presidential candidate than Harris.

I disagree about Warren.She's a humorless scold.Harris I think would have more appeal to independents and the infamous "soccer moms" and she's closer to the traditional Democrat centrist demographic.

[lamboguy]

2020 US Presidential Election - Electoral Votes Winner - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 AM
501 Republican Nominee wins Alabama -1750
502 Democratic Nominee wins Alabama +850
503 Republican Nominee wins Alaska -600
504 Democratic Nominee wins Alaska +400
505 Republican Nominee wins Arizona +140
506 Democratic Nominee wins Arizona -180
507 Republican Nominee wins Arkansas -1350
508 Democratic Nominee wins Arkansas +650
509 Republican Nominee wins California +2500
510 Democratic Nominee wins California -7500
511 Republican Nominee wins Colorado +550
512 Democratic Nominee wins Colorado -1050
513 Republican Nominee wins Connecticut +650
514 Democratic Nominee wins Connecticut -1350
515 Republican Nominee wins Delaware +1250
516 Democratic Nominee wins Delaware -2750
517 Republican Nominee wins Dist of Columbia +4000
518 Democratic Nominee wins Dist of Columbia -16000
519 Republican Nominee wins Florida -105
520 Democratic Nominee wins Florida -135
521 Republican Nominee wins Georgia -140
522 Democratic Nominee wins Georgia +100
523 Republican Nominee wins Hawaii +2400
524 Democratic Nominee wins Hawaii -7200
525 Republican Nominee wins Idaho -3000
526 Democratic Nominee wins Idaho +1300
527 Republican Nominee wins Illinois +1700
528 Democratic Nominee wins Illinois -5100
529 Republican Nominee wins Indiana -750
530 Democratic Nominee wins Indiana +450
531 Republican Nominee wins Iowa -150
532 Democratic Nominee wins Iowa +110
533 Republican Nominee wins Kansas -900
534 Democratic Nominee wins Kansas +500
535 Republican Nominee wins Kentucky -1700
536 Democratic Nominee wins Kentucky +800
537 Republican Nominee wins Louisiana -1350
538 Democratic Nominee wins Louisiana +650
539 Republican Nominee wins Maine +385
540 Democratic Nominee wins Maine -585
541 Republican Nominee wins Maryland +1200
542 Democratic Nominee wins Maryland -2600
543 Republican Nominee wins Massachusetts +1500
544 Democratic Nominee wins Massachusetts -4500
545 Republican Nominee wins Michigan +220
546 Democratic Nominee wins Michigan -300
547 Republican Nominee wins Minnesota +280
548 Democratic Nominee wins Minnesota -400
549 Republican Nominee wins Mississippi -1200
550 Democratic Nominee wins Mississippi +600
551 Republican Nominee wins Missouri -720
552 Democratic Nominee wins Missouri +440
553 Republican Nominee wins Montana -825
554 Democratic Nominee wins Montana +475
555 Republican Nominee wins Nebraska -1500
556 Democratic Nominee wins Nebraska +700
557 Republican Nominee wins Nevada +340
558 Democratic Nominee wins Nevada -510
559 Republican Nominee wins New Hampshire +245
560 Democratic Nominee wins New Hampshire -335
561 Republican Nominee wins New Jersey +1000
562 Democratic Nominee wins New Jersey -2000
563 Republican Nominee wins New Mexico +550
564 Democratic Nominee wins New Mexico -1050
565 Republican Nominee wins New York +2500
566 Democratic Nominee wins New York -7500
567 Republican Nominee wins North Carolina +105
568 Democratic Nominee wins North Carolina -145
569 Republican Nominee wins North Dakota -2000
570 Democratic Nominee wins North Dakota +1000
571 Republican Nominee wins Ohio -135
572 Democratic Nominee wins Ohio -105
573 Republican Nominee wins Oklahoma -1700
574 Democratic Nominee wins Oklahoma +800
575 Republican Nominee wins Oregon +1050
576 Democratic Nominee wins Oregon -2150
577 Republican Nominee wins Pennsylvania +210
578 Democratic Nominee wins Pennsylvania -290
579 Republican Nominee wins Rhode Island +1000
580 Democratic Nominee wins Rhode Island -2000
581 Republican Nominee wins South Carolina -600
582 Democratic Nominee wins South Carolina +400
583 Republican Nominee wins South Dakota -2000
584 Democratic Nominee wins South Dakota +1000
585 Republican Nominee wins Tennessee -1350
586 Democratic Nominee wins Tennessee +650
587 Republican Nominee wins Texas -230
588 Democratic Nominee wins Texas +170
589 Republican Nominee wins Utah -750
590 Democratic Nominee wins Utah +450
591 Republican Nominee wins Vermont +1800
592 Democratic Nominee wins Vermont -5400
593 Republican Nominee wins Virginia +450
594 Democratic Nominee wins Virginia -750
595 Republican Nominee wins Washington +1200
596 Democratic Nominee wins Washington -2600
597 Republican Nominee wins West Virginia -1600
598 Democratic Nominee wins West Virginia +760
599 Republican Nominee wins Wisconsin +160
600 Democratic Nominee wins Wisconsin -210
601 Republican Nominee wins Wyoming -3000
602 Democratic Nominee wins Wyoming +1300

[lamboguy]

the republican states are starting to turn against this liberal. i don't think any of us have ever seen republicans unloyal to republican candidates. this is happening right now. Trump is holding his own in the democratic states, hardly budging, but he was pretty weak in those states to start out with.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by highernote

Hillary was the huge favorite last time. Trump was a great bet at about 30-1.

Trump was 30-1+ before he was nominated to run.
After that, those odds were long gone.

Still, he was a good size underdog much of the time.
Even on election night, you could have gotten close to double digits.

[ElKabong]

Those numbers won't change until the debates

Or when Biden chickens out of the debates

Then the numbers turn upside down.