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Old 06-14-2020, 10:36 PM   #31
MPRanger
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Interesting.

Thanks.
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Old 06-15-2020, 01:14 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by MPRanger View Post
I don't think you understand my question. My fault Im sure.
Forget the purse on the claimer, just go with the sale price
of 25k


How would you handicap that against a 25k allowance race?

Which is higher on the totem pole?

as a general rule an allowance race should be better than a 25k claimer at the same track. However when you get in the higher level claimers say 25k and up you are getting pretty close to allowance company if we are talking open company, no restrictions. You will see a horse that has been running claiming races jump up and win an allowance race at times. I would look a little deeper before I dismiss a 25k claimer running in an allowance race.
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Old 06-15-2020, 09:36 AM   #33
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It seems logical that 10K claimer at every track would be approximately equal, but when Andy Beyer started making figures for every track he proved that was not the case. Some 10k claimers are better than others depending on the track.

Using purses also fails because as I said earlier in the thread, the costs are different from track to track. Better horses could actually be attracted to a track with lower purse money if the bills are much lower. Horses could ultimately make their owner more money running for a somewhat lower purse.

Throw in inflated statebreds, occasional inflated casino money, and tracks like Kentucky Downs and the entire thing falls apart once you start making comparisons across tracks.

There is no simplistic way to make these class comparisons.

If you want some basic way to start, I would use Beyer Class Pars. That's the average winning figure for each class. They are available for all tracks (most classes) at DRF. Any one figure could be in error or impacted by the race development, but better horses run faster over the long haul. So the speed figure averages (PARS) at least do a decent job of capturing the average quality for a class. Then you just need method of determining if a field was strong or weak for the class. You do that by looking at the PPs of the horses that were actually in the race and then ultimately also following how they do coming out of the race.
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Old 06-15-2020, 11:58 AM   #34
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Is that how you do it?
I don't make class ratings per se, but I use purse to guide me. I prefer to see how the horse fits the conditions rather than actual class. Like MSW winners - can go to Alw nw1, str allw, or claimers. Before the break and purse cuts, starter allowances for 25000,40000, and 50000 all had purses of $55K while nwi had a purse of $66K.

So all the str alw races had the same purses, but large difference in the claiming prices referenced in the conditions. And the nw1 were better race than all of them.

NW! horses are more likely to move ahead to nw2, nw3, stks.....while the str horses are more likely to take advantage of the slower horses while they can before dropping into claimers. Generally speaking of course.

I also use the par for the race. nw1 par is 92, str 500000 is only around 80. nw1 horse who do not win but run Beyers in the low- to mid 80s can be dropping when entered in to a str 50, even superior, but they might look not so good because of poorer finishes.
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Old 06-15-2020, 12:34 PM   #35
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I like this post from 2017. But I have a question:

How would you weight or evaluate or compare between
a claiming race and an allowance race of the same tag as a purse ?

$25,000 claiming price
$25,000 allowance purse
My post you quoted is how I do my comparisons, but I have tweaked my chart.

I have not changed my stakes and allowance numbers. But I have elevated the claiming, Mdn Special and Mdn claiming, and starter allowance categories.

Now I rate as equal no conditioned Stakes purse $12,000 to $16,000 Alw to $25,000 claimer, to $32,000 Mdn Spc purse, to $100,000 Mdn Claimer, to $20,000 Starter Alw.

My previous chart had Mdn special purse Of $50,000 equal $16,000 open allowance.

I still use the 20% difference.

I made the changes so that purses compare more equally, especially at the higher class levels.

I find my Performance Class Ratings more accurate.
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