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Old 10-04-2019, 11:34 PM   #16
AltonKelsey
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Bad news for you conspiracy theorists re:last second betting


EVEN if you're right, this is the LEAST of your problems with beating the game .


And you're probably not right.
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Old 10-05-2019, 12:00 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by AltonKelsey View Post
Bad news for you conspiracy theorists re:last second betting


EVEN if you're right, this is the LEAST of your problems with beating the game .


And you're probably not right.
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Old 10-05-2019, 12:11 AM   #18
Robert Fischer
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There most certainly can be coding done for one or more entities which could allow for wagers to be placed at the point when all wagering has been fully aggregated from offsite and on-track. That is, there is a point in time when the odds actually do stop changing, as such, it is entirely known what overlays exist vs these various entities own lines. Their bets can then be allowed as the final wagers. They may well be submitted conditionally hours before the race is run making it 'legal', but my point is those bets are 'allowed' to be submitted last. Yes I am speculating, however if this is ever truly audited is there anyone who doesn't believe you would consistently see the same entities are somehow betting last race after race?
conditional, 'last'-batch betting makes sense... I don't know if this is feasible or existent. 'Late'-batch conditional wagering is certainly part of the game.

taking it a step further - a "cancel delay" is something that apparently is not used in today's game, but is a related topic for discussion/concern. I don't know anything about cancel delays.

this is all outside of my competence

best way is to learn from the real deal
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Old 10-05-2019, 02:06 AM   #19
The_Turf_Monster
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I have a hard time believing that if somebody or group is paying for access to the tote system, and they're playing horizontals, that they don't know what the will pays are on any given combo before they bet
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Old 10-05-2019, 09:07 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by MJC922 View Post
There most certainly can be coding done for one or more entities which could allow for wagers to be placed at the point when all wagering has been fully aggregated from offsite and on-track. That is, there is a point in time when the odds actually do stop changing, as such, it is entirely known what overlays exist vs these various entities own lines. Their bets can then be allowed as the final wagers. They may well be submitted conditionally hours before the race is run making it 'legal', but my point is those bets are 'allowed' to be submitted last. Yes I am speculating, however if this is ever truly audited is there anyone who doesn't believe you would consistently see the same entities are somehow betting last race after race?
All it takes is the existence of 2 teams with the same access to invalidate this. The tote isn't able to aggregate the wagers until after the race has started. Even if the teams could see all the wagers "on the way" it'd still be impossible, because there'd be another team doing the same thing. I don't believe any person or entity can tell you exactly what the payouts will be until after the race has started and betting has stopped. However, I do believe it's possible to fairly accurately estimate this, and I'm positive people are doing that.
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Old 10-05-2019, 09:44 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
We're on different pages here.

I have been speaking about online wagering.
Oh, so you're one of these people who don't support
your local simulcast outlet. I heard about guys like you.

Last tick conditional betting is a benefit big money gets.
OK, got it. But they are converting overlays to underlays
which can't help them anymore than the guy they just
stole the value from.

Why would they do this unless they are getting rebates
for the big money they are betting which makes betting
the underlays they created profitable for them?

Are you denying that big money bettors are getting rebates
for their last tick money dumps into the system?
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Old 10-05-2019, 10:22 AM   #22
Lemon Drop Husker
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Syndicates, or whatever you want to call them, are essentially computer program number crunchers to an extreme. What they have greatly changed in the game are the 'value' plays of horses that used to be 8/1 to 15/1 or so that are now rightly placed at odds of 7/2 to 5/1.



What the syndicates will never replace is good ol' fashioned handicapping, intuition, and years in the game of seeing something that just doesn't fit. There are still 10/1 or greater horses that win in this game. Yes, they are much much tougher to find, and patience is indeed extreme, but they are still there to find.


IMO, if you are complaining about syndicates, whales, and power players making the game too hard, then you have already lost before you've even made a wager.
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Old 10-05-2019, 10:40 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post

IMO, if you are complaining about syndicates, whales, and power players making the game too hard, then you have already lost before you've even made a wager.
Say, you sound like a guy who knows what's going on.
Do you know who it is that pays rebates for big money bets
going into the co-mingled tote system?

Is that the ADW entity?

Does Twinspires?
TVG?
Etc;?

Or maybe no one is paying rebates to anyone.

Can you help a brotha out if you know?
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Old 10-05-2019, 11:08 AM   #24
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Here's an article in Bloodhorse that discusses the competition to attract
whales with rebates:

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...mit-to-rebates
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Old 10-05-2019, 11:18 AM   #25
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Here's another one:
https://pws.usracing.com/twin-spires
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Old 10-05-2019, 11:29 AM   #26
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Now that that's established, what to do about it?
Everyone should demand betting exchanges.
But that's not gonna happen.

The one little jewel I have gotten from this thread
somewhere up the chain is that making a realistic
morning line might be a good starting place.
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Old 10-05-2019, 11:34 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by MPRanger View Post
Oh, so you're one of these people who don't support
your local simulcast outlet. I heard about guys like you.

Last tick conditional betting is a benefit big money gets.
OK, got it. But they are converting overlays to underlays
which can't help them anymore than the guy they just
stole the value from.

Why would they do this unless they are getting rebates
for the big money they are betting which makes betting
the underlays they created profitable for them?

Are you denying that big money bettors are getting rebates
for their last tick money dumps into the system?
Of course not.

Is this what you meant by "kick backs?"

BTW, none of "them" use "conditional betting."

They bet using similar mechanisms to how any of us can do it online.
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Old 10-05-2019, 11:36 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by MPRanger View Post
Now that that's established, what to do about it?
Everyone should demand betting exchanges.
But that's not gonna happen.

The one little jewel I have gotten from this thread
somewhere up the chain is that making a realistic
morning line might be a good starting place
.
Yes, we should. Oh, wait. I've been talking about doing that for a couple of weeks in another thread.

Betting exchanges:
I love the idea of exchange wagering.

But, are you ready to give up all the exotics?

Same with fixed odds: no exotics.
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Old 10-05-2019, 11:38 AM   #29
Jeff P
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MPRanger View Post
Say, you sound like a guy who knows what's going
Is that the ADW entity?
Yes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MPRanger View Post
Does Twinspires?
TVG?
Etc;?
Yes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MPRanger View Post
Or maybe no one is paying rebates to anyone.
No.

The ADW/Bet Taker/Rebate House is the entity that pays rebates to the player.

In order to get rebates, the player has to be betting a large enough amt volume-wise to make it worth the ADW/Bet Taker/Rebate House's while.

Basically, the player negotiates a deal with the ADW/Bet Taker/Rebate House.

Several of the biggest bettors on the planet (or corporations as Dave calls them) are based outside the US.

This lets them avoid source market fee.

Fyi, if you or I were based in NY, PA, VA, CA, etc., the ADW or bet taker where you or I have an account is subject to that state's source market fee.

If I were based in (say) NY where there is a 5% source market fee or in VA where there is a 10% source market fee:

My ADW/Bet Taker has to pay me lower rebates than they would a player based in better state or outside the US.

In a nutshell, that's how it works.


-jp

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Old 10-05-2019, 11:42 AM   #30
Jeff P
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
Yes, we should. Oh, wait. I've been talking about doing that for a couple of weeks in another thread.

Betting exchanges:
I love the idea of exchange wagering.

But, are you ready to give up all the exotics?

Same with fixed odds: no exotics.
Imo:

It's not an either or thing.

If exchange wagering were offered across the US:

Parimutuel exotics in all forms would still be available (similar to what happened in Australia.)


-jp

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Last edited by Jeff P; 10-05-2019 at 11:44 AM.
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