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Old 04-06-2017, 01:50 AM   #16
boys at tosconova
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1. Glennrichment, Rudy Rodriguez, Kendrick Carmouche, 15-1

2. Mo Town, Tony Dutrow, Javier Castellano, 6-1

3. Battalion Runner, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 2-1

4. Bonus Points, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 20-1

5. True Timber, Kiaran McLaughlin, Paco Lopez, 12-1

6. Stretch’s Stone, Bruce Levine, Manny Franco, 15-1

7. Cloud Computing, Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz, 5-2

8. Irish War Cry, Graham Motion, Rajiv Maragh, 7-2

doesn't look like cloud computing would be advised to leaving in here. seems like there will be plenty of cheap speed up front. i don't know what that does to his chances, but if he doesn't leave for position he could be last.

seems like it's pletcher's race was again. all these horses seem a notch below. that is if war cry completely shit it.
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Old 04-06-2017, 01:55 PM   #17
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Notes:
Glennrichment - RAN sire line, Buckpasser-x. Massive step up in class coming off maiden score. Modest improvement in figures could yield yield a board hit if others falter.
Mo Town - Hit the distance on the surface in Remsen. A repeat of that performance would easily put him in contention for the win. Bill and Coo in tail female, the same tail of Secretariat. Nothing wrong with JC piloting.
Battalion Runner - RAN top line, Buckpasser-x. Dosage profile including two professional points suggests distance is no problem. Pletcher factor alone will make this one over-bet. When I was comparing him to Always Dreaming I thought BR looked better on paper. Will need to pick up the middle pace to avoid being too far back. Had same concerns with Dreaming which ended up being non-factor. JV a winning pilot.
Bonus Points - Another Pletcher. This one has some fancy inbreeding including Buckpasser and also contains Buckpasser-x. Has not yet shown he can keep up with stronger competition but not humiliated either. These 3 year olds can sometimes pop suddenly but this would be a big pop. Hitting bottom of super would not be a shock.
True Timber - Another Buckpasser-x. Lots of those this year. This one lost ground his last two at shorter distances so I cannot expect him to suddenly gain it. A repeat of Withers run makes a mild threat to hit the board if it's a speed favoring day.
Stretches Stone - I usually think sprinter when I see City Zip in the sire line. This is further supported by the 7.00 DI. I simply cannot use at 9F. Perhaps a repeat of last out could hold for bottom of super but I doubt it with this class.
Cloud Computing - RAN plus Buckpasser-x. Gets a better pilot this time. Gotham repeat very much puts him in contention for the win.
Irish War Cry - RAN plus Buckpasser-x (sound familar yet?). If you're willing to draw a line through the FOY which reminded me of Frosted practically stopping then a possible wire job at reasonable odds.

Tough race to wager. I'll certainly use the & on top of whatever I play.
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Old 04-06-2017, 04:57 PM   #18
Robert Fischer
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tough race

Mo Town appears to be the best value, but I'm not eager to bet.

Cloud Computing is almost certain to run his win-contending race, although it looks like he may go off as the post-time favorite , and this is a parimutuel game. If he's really 5/2, it could be as simple as a win bet.

Irish War Cry is a horse that I wanted to bet. Thought he may be good, and he had to urge from the gate last time into a hot pace @ GP. However, he could end up with a wide trip into fast pace. Lot of risk here. Lot of bad trade-offs.

Battalion Runner appears to have the worst value, but I'm not eager to bet-against.


so maybe you key Mo Town top/bottom of those 3?... I don't know.


underneath: True Timber may have actually been at a peak level last race, for all we know. Now his value is at an all-time high as well. Think we'll see some fear/respect of the pace in the heart of KMAC, and instructions to PACO... Think we'll see his style revert back to the stalking Jerome and MDN races, after trading pace-punches last couple. A lot of models are pointing to this guy as a key 3rd/4th... who knows

Stretch's Stone is in over his head. If he sucks up, he can try to be a poor-man's True Timber, letting others do the work and trying to get 3rd/4th. A bit of a 'stretch'.
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Old 04-06-2017, 08:05 PM   #19
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Give me Irish War Cry at 9/2 or better.

Battalion Runner looks to be extremely overrated to me.

I can be an easy Ex and Tri Box and call it good.
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Old 04-06-2017, 08:24 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
Stretch's Stone is in over his head. If he sucks up, he can try to be a poor-man's True Timber, letting others do the work and trying to get 3rd/4th. A bit of a 'stretch'.
nothing says comedy like being compared to true timber, and then saying it's a stretch.

you're almost forced to use the 8 after the 37373737373 because of lack of alternatives..but for triples the wheel is your friend.

now if you can ever get the 3 or 7 to run third and have one of the turds run second, well, then you'll have a 100 triple.. but it still doesn't sound nice does it?........ lol
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Old 04-06-2017, 08:55 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
nothing says comedy like being compared to true timber, and then saying it's a stretch.

you're almost forced to use the 8 after the 37373737373 because of lack of alternatives..but for triples the wheel is your friend.

now if you can ever get the 3 or 7 to run third and have one of the turds run second, well, then you'll have a 100 triple.. but it still doesn't sound nice does it?........ lol
game-planning something like
tri 2/378/5 =$1.50
tri 378/2/5 =$1.50
super 2/378/3678/5 =$0.90
super 378/2/3678/5 =$0.90
super 378/378/2/5 =$0.60
$5.40

Guessing that True Timber will be allowed to stalk just a bit, and that Mo Town will work a good trip. If I'm wrong I lose $5.40. If I'm right, I win bragging rights and a few bucks.
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Old 04-07-2017, 12:55 AM   #22
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Quote:
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game-planning something like
tri 2/378/5 =$1.50
tri 378/2/5 =$1.50
super 2/378/3678/5 =$0.90
super 378/2/3678/5 =$0.90
super 378/378/2/5 =$0.60
$5.40

Guessing that True Timber will be allowed to stalk just a bit, and that Mo Town will work a good trip. If I'm wrong I lose $5.40. If I'm right, I win bragging rights and a few bucks.
seems like a lot of excitement for not a lot of money being bet.

nothing wrong with that or betting against a $40 triple

i might just make a big win bet

Last edited by boys at tosconova; 04-07-2017 at 12:56 AM.
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Old 04-07-2017, 11:45 AM   #23
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more I look at this , the better Battalion Runner looks.

I actually like him a little better than Cloud Computing.
Players are going out of their way to explain Cloud Computing.
His inexperience, how close he was to the pace, how he didn't quit when a rival blew past him in the Gotham, etc.. etc...
Great, if he's not the co-favorite.
He could certainly win. He could also finish another flat second, after showing a lot of good qualities.

Mo Town and Irish War Cry feel like reaches.

I could always hammer Battalion Runner @ 2-1, thinking he's slightly more likely than Cloud Computing, but I like my 2-1's to be less contested.

PASS. No bet. Going to watch and root for Cloud Computing to win.
If Cloud Computing wins, half of New York will think they geniuses and he'll take a ton of money in the Derby.
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Old 04-07-2017, 01:28 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
more I look at this , the better Battalion Runner looks.

I actually like him a little better than Cloud Computing.
Players are going out of their way to explain Cloud Computing.
His inexperience, how close he was to the pace, how he didn't quit when a rival blew past him in the Gotham, etc.. etc...
Great, if he's not the co-favorite.
He could certainly win. He could also finish another flat second, after showing a lot of good qualities.

Mo Town and Irish War Cry feel like reaches.

I could always hammer Battalion Runner @ 2-1, thinking he's slightly more likely than Cloud Computing, but I like my 2-1's to be less contested.

PASS. No bet. Going to watch and root for Cloud Computing to win.
If Cloud Computing wins, half of New York will think they geniuses and he'll take a ton of money in the Derby.

Apollo curse... but I see Cloud Computing as a good bet for the Belmont or Travers. Think this horse will be a force later in the year
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Old 04-07-2017, 04:05 PM   #25
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David Aragona's analysis of the Wood:

https://timeformusblog.com/2017/04/0...wood-memorial/
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Old 04-07-2017, 06:50 PM   #26
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Quote:
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I could always hammer Battalion Runner @ 2-1, thinking he's slightly more likely than Cloud Computing, but I like my 2-1's to be less contested.
it's going to be interesting to see what the odds will be on the 3 and 7.

i thought cloud was an underlay in the gotham @ 6-1 in a seven horse field when nobody was taking about him.

it's pretty safe to assume that you will likely have to settle for less than you think with a win bet on either. it is possible that batallion can be 6/5 and cloud not far behind.
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Old 04-08-2017, 01:39 AM   #27
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Who is this Battalion horse? I wouldn't bet him with your money...anyhoo...this looks like a chalk fest to me...

My line:

Cloud Computing 8/5
Irish War Cry 2/1
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Old 04-08-2017, 01:46 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
Who is this Battalion horse? I wouldn't bet him with your money...anyhoo...this looks like a chalk fest to me...

My line:

Cloud Computing 8/5
Irish War Cry 2/1
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Old 04-08-2017, 06:59 AM   #29
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How "bout" some BUTE...cures all ailments...common as Lasix now.

https://www.gaming.ny.gov/pdf/04.06.17.WoodMemorial.pdf
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Old 04-08-2017, 07:45 AM   #30
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How "bout" some BUTE...cures all ailments...common as Lasix now.

https://www.gaming.ny.gov/pdf/04.06.17.WoodMemorial.pdf
is that normal? almost every horse in the race has something wrong with him
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