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08-29-2018, 10:26 AM
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#5056
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 4
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amrican muscle
classic cars good horses & NFL
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08-29-2018, 05:34 PM
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#5057
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by caretaker69
classic cars good horses & NFL
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That would make a good country song...unless there already is one
Who's betting Retama today? I have one question....
...WHY?
All I can think of is a win parlay, but for whatever payout you might get, mathematically the risk is heck of a lot bigger than any potential reward. No $100 mutuals today.
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08-30-2018, 07:21 AM
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#5058
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Time to get back to more conventional handicapping. SPEED DEMONS just isn't getting it done.
I did a study of mile races with PLATINUM. I'm still in the middle of it, but I can tell you this: AVOID ROUTES AT GPX & EVD.
That's the only thing I got, really. One other thing (mile races only)--the contender MUST be 1st or 2nd in either EPS or ABILITY,
and eliminate any "S" style horses. E/P'S DOMINATE.
I'll have plenty more in the coming days.
Good luck today
-NCG
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08-30-2018, 06:19 PM
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#5059
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 349
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Delmar race Dislitleagle has some good things going good pick
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08-31-2018, 01:52 AM
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#5060
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Timonium
Yeah....they're all good picks until the gate opens
I always thought "Timonium" was some kind of cheese. One of my horses from stable watch is entered here today. Shows a 3F tightener couple days ago---hard to figure out the intention here. This is 4F --is this part of her prep? The 3F w/o on the 28th is an indication today is a serious effort to win. She's gotta get out of the gate without mishap.
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08-31-2018, 05:42 AM
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#5061
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Six workouts in last 2 months. How much tighter does Nana need to be. Let'er rip.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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08-31-2018, 07:02 AM
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#5062
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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The horse is a 2yo filly with one lifetime start....and she blew that one by stumbling out of the gate. Her rider kept her completely even with the leader albeit six lengths back--that's what caught my attention. 6 works in 57 days is not really a lot, is it? For a 2yo it's not.
I'm gonna track a couple PLATINUM spot plays...one a data base study was done--not extensive, but enough to be interesting. The spot play is called "ABILITY/POWER" It was profitable @ 4-1 min ML...so that's where I'll draw the line, 4-1 and up.
Another is a longshot method of PLATINUMs...The button to get any selections is labeled "LONGSHOT 2" it won't select a horse that is below 10-1. I've seen it--and you may have as well, nail some monsters. In a few weeks at different tracks, we should have a sample to amuse ourselves with.
The horses at the bottom are just regular selections--nothing fancy.
Good luck ya'll
-NCG
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08-31-2018, 07:07 AM
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#5063
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Greg, well I go by comparison on w/o's. She stumbles out of gate in her very first race, and comes close to matching the highest speed rating of the probable fav's after they've had 2-3 races. Any improvement she's likely winner, and I'm calling her as the probable favorite, although don't bank on my words.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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09-01-2018, 07:05 AM
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#5064
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Greg, well I go by comparison on w/o's. She stumbles out of gate in her very first race, and comes close to matching the highest speed rating of the probable fav's after they've had 2-3 races. Any improvement she's likely winner, and I'm calling her as the probable favorite, although don't bank on my words.
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When I bet and don't see any races...I like to first look at my ADW balance before knowing any results. It showed a nice increase so I assumed NANA'S SHOES had won.
I checked results--NaNa's Shoes did not win--not even close. The bump in my bankroll was from Del Mar horses in the 3rd and 4th. I didn't even look at the chart for Timonium. Unless that horse comes right back in two weeks--I'm done with her.
Here's today's spot plays I'm tracking:
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09-01-2018, 09:36 AM
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#5065
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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DM Double
No time for any serious handicapping today--just the early double @ Del Mar:
1ST #8 RED SHELBY 6-1 & #2 HELEN'S TIGER 6-1
TO
2ND #8 TIME AND CHANCE 3-1 & #6 EMMY AND I 15-1
Good Luck today all
-NCG
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09-02-2018, 09:51 AM
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#5066
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Timonium 09/02
Not much in the way of the 2 spot plays we're tracking:
ABILITY/POWER
TIMONIUM
10TH PURRING VALENTINE 4-1
LONGSHOT2
DEL MAR
8TH MAJESTIC EAGLE 15-1
TAKE A LOOK AT BEST-5 PICKS FOR TIMONIUM--3 TOP PICKS ARE 4-1 ...9TH RACE EXACTA -LOOKS LIKE A BOX SHOULD GET THE MONEY
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09-03-2018, 04:56 AM
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#5067
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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TRACKING PLATINUM SPOT PLAYS
so far........
ABILITY/POWER
1 FOR 7
WAGER $14.00
RETURN =$50.40
+$36.40
LONGSHOT 2
0 FOR 8
WAGER $16.00
RETURN =$0.00
-$16.00
Since I'm tracking spot plays...Ima add a couple more plays that I'm curious about. One play never saw the light of day...it wasn't ever released. It's called the "I-92" play. It's a variation of EARLY/LATE on an old test program. I had another board member that had a copy for testing...we stood and watched this play hit 5 of 6 longshots in a week. It went cold the next couple weeks--and was forgotten about.
The other: you can find it today on your PLATINUM program labeled "1M+". Most everything I do is based on speed--early speed. In routes speed is also important, as you all know.. You want a horse that is close to the leaders--if he loses contact right away, he's probably done. He can't be credited for any Pace Ratings--because he wasn't part of the pace. It's all good and well for a horse to suck along and draft behind the lead group...just don't bet it to win.
I'll break these two out and soon as I can find "I-92" again. I don't recall the name/version of the program it's on, but I know I have it.
BBL
-NCG
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09-03-2018, 02:48 PM
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#5068
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 349
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"I-92 Late " button on Paceview .
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09-04-2018, 09:53 AM
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#5069
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horseplayer
"I-92 Late " button on Paceview .
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What PaceView? Pro, or what? It isn't on a Pro copy I have, Bob.
Presque Isle has a couple LONGSHOT 2 plays:
3RD PLAY FOR PLAY 15-1
6TH POQUITO ROSE 12-1
AND ONE 1M + PLAY
1ST DON'S BEACH 10-1 For Platinum users...notice the *> designation for that horse. He's going from a sprint to route today.
That last race looks like a public workout--the trainer doesn't instill much confidence, though. We'll have to wait and see.
FINGER LAKES
Nothing much here...there is one 1M+ qualifier:
3RD SPLASHY RISE 6-1
FOLLLOWING IS THE TOP POWER HORSES FOR FINGER LAKES--AND THE TOP-2 POWER FOR PRESQUE.
It's interesting @ Presque 3rd race PLAY FOR PLAY is ranked #1 in PLATINUM POWER---but almost dead last in PRIME POWER
Good Luck guys,
-NCG
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09-04-2018, 11:47 AM
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#5070
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 349
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ok "1-92 and Late" to be specific
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