What could you do with a model that accurately predicts final race time?

[Dave Schwartz]

What if you throw out the first 2f. Consider the time 2f through Final the actual time of the race. Based off that time, create speed ratings and track variants the same way you normally would. Would this change anything? Would this be more reliable?

Is this a worthless thought or something worth messing with? Thanks in advance.

Actually, the chaotic part comes later.


No sarcasm or snarkiness intended, but, yes, you are off-base with this.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by bob60566

Read statement in one of the racing books way back when.

Time is only for those behind bars

Isn't that one of the stupidest clichés in history though? The idea that the time a horse can run doesn't matter AT ALL....I mean, if you told that to track athletes, that their times didn't matter, they'd laugh you out of the room. And yes you need to understand the variables involved, but of course how fast you can run matters in a race.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Isn't that one of the stupidest clichés in history though? The idea that the time a horse can run doesn't matter AT ALL....I mean, if you told that to track athletes, that their times didn't matter, they'd laugh you out of the room. And yes you need to understand the variables involved, but of course how fast you can run matters in a race.

You know there are reasons why certain statements are made about some of the intricacies of the horse racing game. Many of them revolve around the subject of “Time”.

Just because you can’t comprehend something doesn’t make the statement “stupid”. In fact, it might just make you look that way for not having the knowledge to understand its true meaning.

I doubt those track athletes you mentioned could tell you how a head-wind, tail-wind or cross-wind might affect their time. But the wind is only one factor to consider. The actual moisture in the racing surface is another. But perhaps the biggest factor in the horse racing game to consider would be the influence of Class.

But rather going into lots of additional detail, you might be interested in reading some worthwhile info by successful player on this topic:
Racing Maxims and Methods of Pittsburg Phil - CHAPTER 5 -- Handicapping by Time
http://colinsghost.org/wp-content/up...Chapter_05.pdf

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Isn't that one of the stupidest clichés in history though? The idea that the time a horse can run doesn't matter AT ALL....I mean, if you told that to track athletes, that their times didn't matter, they'd laugh you out of the room. And yes you need to understand the variables involved, but of course how fast you can run matters in a race.

Maybe that is why athletes do not have a jockey onboard. lol

[thaskalos]

To handicap entirety by time is misguided...but to ignore time as if it doesn't matter is sheer lunacy. When I hear a handicapper say that "time counts only when you are in jail"...my natural instinct is to try and book his wagers...assuming that he's got any betting money left.

[Robert Fischer]

Some of Pittsburgh Phil's wisdom still rings true.

"Time only counts in jail" = One of the timeless horse racing debates.

Originally Posted by Nitro

You know there are reasons why certain statements are made about some of the intricacies of the horse racing game. Many of them revolve around the subject of “Time”.

Just because you can’t comprehend something doesn’t make the statement “stupid”. In fact, it might just make you look that way for not having the knowledge to understand its true meaning.

I doubt those track athletes you mentioned could tell you how a head-wind, tail-wind or cross-wind might affect their time. But the wind is only one factor to consider. The actual moisture in the racing surface is another. But perhaps the biggest factor in the horse racing game to consider would be the influence of Class.

But rather going into lots of additional detail, you might be interested in reading some worthwhile info by successful player on this topic:
Racing Maxims and Methods of Pittsburg Phil - CHAPTER 5 -- Handicapping by Time
http://colinsghost.org/wp-content/up...Chapter_05.pdf

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

To handicap entirety by time is misguided...but to ignore time as if it doesn't matter is sheer lunacy. When I hear a handicapper say that "time counts only when you are in jail"...my natural instinct is to try and book his wagers...assuming that he's got any betting money left.

I’m not sure if good old Pittsburg Phil used that terminology about “Time”, but from what I read it sounds like he might have agreed with that statement. In any case, I highly doubt you would have wanted to take any of his action.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I would find a bookie that would take the over/under for race time.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I’m not sure if good old Pittsburg Phil used that terminology about “Time”, but from what I read it sounds like he might have agreed with that statement. In any case, I highly doubt you would have wanted to take any of his action.

Pittsburg Phil was the one-eyed king in the land of the blind. If he dared to ignore time in today's game...then he would have died on welfare.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Pittsburgh Phil was the one-eyed king in the land of the blind. If he dared to ignore time in today's game...then he would have died on welfare.

Pittsburgh Phil would be a monster in today's game.



Time?

Thaskalos, I say you can successfully 'ignore' time


but, only if you 'meticulously take notice' of time, - and then reserve your wagers for those few opportunities where the market misprices one of those rare counterintuitive races.

This game has so many models, but only a handful carry the heavy freight of a typical race card/meet.

Some of these minor models can occasionally be rewarded with a big price, but they are so few and far between.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Pittsburgh Phil would be a monster in today's game.



Time?

Thaskalos, I say you can successfully 'ignore' time


but, only if you 'meticulously take notice' of time, - and then reserve your wagers for those few opportunities where the market misprices one of those rare counterintuitive races.

This game has so many models, but only a handful carry the heavy freight of a typical race card/meet.

Some of these minor models can occasionally be rewarded with a big price, but they are so few and far between.

Of course, it is all supposition, but my guess would be that PitPhil would get eaten alive.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Of course, it is all supposition, but my guess would be that PitPhil would get eaten alive.

Game evolved too much? Whales? CAW??


TBH, my argument of Pittsburgh Phil dominating 'today's game' is in the spirit of good fun.

I don't know Pittsburgh Phil other than reading his 'maxims'.
I don't even agree 100% with his advice, and I wonder how much is 'artistic license' as a writer, vs. how much is historical fact, but he has some legitimate wisdom mixed in, and his writing is interesting/motivational.

It's fun to have some historical 'legends' and hall-of-famers.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Game evolved too much? Whales? CAW??


TBH, my argument of Pittsburgh Phil dominating 'today's game' is in the spirit of good fun.

I don't know Pittsburgh Phil other than reading his 'maxims'.
I don't even agree 100% with his advice, and I wonder how much is 'artistic license' as a writer, vs. how much is historical fact, but he has some legitimate wisdom mixed in, and his writing is interesting/motivational.

It's fun to have some historical 'legends' and hall-of-famers.

The thing is...it wasn't Phil who wrote that book. Edward Cole was supposedly a good friend of Phil's...and he supposedly interviewed the legendary horseplayer, vowing to release the book only after Phil's death. I've read the book as well, and, judging by its contents...Ole Phil took his real betting secrets to the grave with him.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Pittsburg Phil was the one-eyed king in the land of the blind. If he dared to ignore time in today's game...then he would have died on welfare.

I think you ought seriously reconsider your position because your statement gives others unfamiliar with the era of Piittsburg Phil the impression that he was operating in a vacuum. This couldn’t be further from the truth because anyone who is familiar with that period knows first of all that there were many top notch players. Some of them were very well recognized and others purposely inconspicuous.

If he "dared" to play today with the insight he projected in his axioms I doubt the “Time” factor would be any more significant then it was then. In all likelihood he would have been just as successful as he was then.

I find it very ironic though that another top notch horse player, named Bill Benter (who BTW also resides in Pittsburg) had no background in horse racing what-so-ever. Yet he developed a computer program where “Time” was only 1 of over a 117 variables involved in an algorithm that produced the capability to create millions of dollars in profit. Unfortunately, other than the significance that he placed on how the public’s wagering impacted his method of play, I never came across anything that identified the individual weighted importance of the 117 variables.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Pittsburgh Phil would be a monster in today's game.

I think that’s an understatement! How about a Killer Whale?

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by bob60566

Maybe that is why athletes do not have a jockey onboard. lol

That's a good point---carrying around one of those characters around could really throw off the final times, not to mention some backs and knees.