Pro gambler tearing up Jeopardy

[horses4courses]

James Holzhauer is on a roll - shattered the one day win figure...$298687 so far
Unorthodox contestant makes for an interesting story.
I'm glad I don't book his action

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...=.db67c2ed19bb

[kingfin66]

That is awesome!

[Suff]

“My approach isn't complicated: Get some money, hit the Daily Doubles, bet big, and hope I run hot,”

https://www.wired.com/story/jeopardy...auer-strategy/

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

James Holzhauer is on a roll - shattered the one day win figure...$298687 so far
Unorthodox contestant makes for an interesting story.
I'm glad I don't book his action

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...=.db67c2ed19bb

The guy is quick with numbers. He made his final bet such that the final winnings would match his daughter's birthday, 11/09/14.

[pandy]

He concentrates on in-game betting because he says the odds makers lines aren't as accurate. He's obviously a math wiz.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by pandy

He concentrates on in-game betting because he says the odds makers lines aren't as accurate. He's obviously a math wiz.

I wonder why this math wiz isn't concentrating on horse races...

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by pandy

He concentrates on in-game betting because he says the odds makers lines aren't as accurate. He's obviously a math wiz.

i saw those in progress lines, sometimes it goes you get +200 on the underdog and lay -500 on the favorite. you would have to be not only a math wizard but have a very close relationship to the great Houdini to win at those things.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i saw those in progress lines, sometimes it goes you get +200 on the underdog and lay -500 on the favorite. you would have to be not only a math wizard but have a very close relationship to the great Houdini to win at those things.

That's assuming a high number of wagers made.
Yes - that sort of vig will kill you over the long run.

However, identifying weak lines (regardless of vig),
and picking your spots carefully, will keep you in the black.

The reality of the situation is that modern bookmaking outfits
will cut off anyone who is successful, or reduce their max bet
to such a low number that it's not worth their time.

These books have to compensate for their weaker traders
who put up lines in-running that can be beaten.
Unreasonably high vigorish is a by-product of this.
These books are constantly searching for suckers.

Bettors like James Holzhauer aren't welcome with most
of these outfits. Having an edge and taking advantage
of it will get you backed off in a hurry. Eventually, he
will have to resort to getting his action down through
others. Good luck with that.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

That's assuming a high number of wagers made.
Yes - that sort of vig will kill you over the long run.

However, identifying weak lines (regardless of vig),
and picking your spots carefully, will keep you in the black.

The reality of the situation is that modern bookmaking outfits
will cut off anyone who is successful, or reduce their max bet
to such a low number that it's not worth their time.

These books have to compensate for their weaker traders
who put up lines in-running that can be beaten.
Unreasonably high vigorish is a by-product of this.
These books are constantly searching for suckers.

Bettors like James Holzhauer aren't welcome with most
of these outfits. Having an edge and taking advantage
of it will get you backed off in a hurry. Eventually, he
will have to resort to getting his action down through
others. Good luck with that.

there have been millions of beards in the desert.

i beat Eugene Mayday with split-line hockey back in 1974 and 1975. that was the only time i ever had an edge in sports for such a long period of time, and it came with sucker split lines.

[lansdale]

Just heard about this guy from a sports gambler who otherwise has zero interest in this show. Now up to 942k after 13 winning days. Not bad. Told me he won the North American Trivia Championship a few years back. The game theory approach is 100% legit, but still won't work this way unless you can answer 96% of the questions you buzz in on, as he has so far. Thinking this guy can bankrupt the show.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by pandy

He concentrates on in-game betting because he says the odds makers lines aren't as accurate. He's obviously a math wiz.

Sometimes I wonder about all these guys that claim to have won millions gambling on sports. I've seen Haralabos Voulgaris post things about basketball and other subjects on twitter that I am certain he was wrong about or did not fully understand.

He eventually quit sports gambling and got a job. He works for the Dallas Mavericks now.

I guess as long as you know what you know and stay within that circle of competence you can do really well for awhile even if you don't know everything. But when that edge dries up (and it usually does with all the brilliant minds out there analyzing all the data available) you are sort of screwed.

He supposedly had an edge on under/over by knowing how certain coaches adjusted their team's playing style to certain opponents. He also supposedly had some good referee data before it was available publicly. But if he quit gambling to take a job, I'm guessing his edge is gone, he wasn't winning as much as people think, or he was especially lucky for an extended period of time on his biggest bets and then it started to catch up to him.

I don't know what the Mavs are paying him. I'm sure it's a lot, but it can't be the kind of money he was supposed to be making gambling.

[classhandicapper]

Here's an interesting read, HV posts as coltranedog

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...is-bob-763371/

[rastajenk]

I'm tired of this guy. The show's are less fun watching what may be otherwise decent competitors getting rolled night after night. I wonder if they can cap his winnings after a mill or so.

I took the test a couple weeks ago. I've taken it several times before; this time was my worst performance ever, but that's neither here nor there; usually, I feel like I get about 45 out of 50 but have never got the call. if there's a point there, it's that the line between being good enough to get on and thousands of near misses is pretty small. Imagine the excitement of getting the call, then find out you're going against that guy. They're getting smoked five or six questions and a DD into it. That's no fun.

If they let him keep going, I'll stop watching. I know it's taped, but nothing's been leaked as far as I know about an eventual outcome. What would the show's exec's choose to do: hope someone defeats him (unlikely) or keep going until the end of their "season"?

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

I'm tired of this guy. The show's are less fun watching what may be otherwise decent competitors getting rolled night after night. I wonder if they can cap his winnings after a mill or so.

I took the test a couple weeks ago. I've taken it several times before; this time was my worst performance ever, but that's neither here nor there; usually, I feel like I get about 45 out of 50 but have never got the call. if there's a point there, it's that the line between being good enough to get on and thousands of near misses is pretty small. Imagine the excitement of getting the call, then find out you're going against that guy. They're getting smoked five or six questions and a DD into it. That's no fun.

If they let him keep going, I'll stop watching. I know it's taped, but nothing's been leaked as far as I know about an eventual outcome. What would the show's exec's choose to do: hope someone defeats him (unlikely) or keep going until the end of their "season"?

I agree with you.

If I was the producer, I'd have staff analyze his play.
Any common denominator on his weakest categories?
If they can find it, load Daily Doubles strategically.
Sooner or later, he will come up empty.

He's a hell of a player and has changed the game.
Others will attempt to wager like he does - it won't work for most people.
Been fun watching him - it's time for a change pretty soon, though.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Sometimes I wonder about all these guys that claim to have won millions gambling on sports. I've seen Haralabos Voulgaris post things about basketball and other subjects on twitter that I am certain he was wrong about or did not fully understand.

He eventually quit sports gambling and got a job. He works for the Dallas Mavericks now.

I guess as long as you know what you know and stay within that circle of competence you can do really well for awhile even if you don't know everything. But when that edge dries up (and it usually does with all the brilliant minds out there analyzing all the data available) you are sort of screwed.

He supposedly had an edge on under/over by knowing how certain coaches adjusted their team's playing style to certain opponents. He also supposedly had some good referee data before it was available publicly. But if he quit gambling to take a job, I'm guessing his edge is gone, he wasn't winning as much as people think, or he was especially lucky for an extended period of time on his biggest bets and then it started to catch up to him.

I don't know what the Mavs are paying him. I'm sure it's a lot, but it can't be the kind of money he was supposed to be making gambling.

I don't know how much Voulgaris was winning at gambling...but he is a hilariously entertaining guy...and there can be no doubt that he was one of the biggest sports bettors in the world during his active years. It's fun to have guys like that in a chat room. Our site here should be as lucky...IMO.