Union Rags and the Triple Crown?

[GARY Z]

great looking horse, with tremendous promise early on, who
couldn't get a decent trip due to jockey error and, as stated above,
beat a second tier field due to another idiotic ride by Mike Smith
on Paynter about 50' from the finish line. Note Paynter
began his career in Feb! and UR was all out to win
the race. I can't envision UR would have beaten Bodemeister
were the same slow fractions were set by him in the Belmont.

One could make the case that a Jockey other than Smith on Bode' would not
have placed IAH in the position of a Triple Crown winner.

On the other hand, based upon the finish and final speed #
of UR in the Belmont,there is no dount a sound IAH
would have destroyed this lackluster field.

[Leparoux]

Originally Posted by GARY Z

great looking horse, with tremendous promise early on, who
couldn't get a decent trip due to jockey error and, as stated above,
beat a second tier field due to another idiotic ride by Mike Smith
on Paynter about 50' from the finish line. Note Paynter
began his career in Feb! and UR was all out to win
the race. I can't envision UR would have beaten Bodemeister
were the same slow fractions were set by him in the Belmont.

One could make the case that a Jockey other than Smith on Bode' would not
have placed IAH in the position of a Triple Crown winner.

On the other hand, based upon the finish and final speed #
of UR in the Belmont,there is no dount a sound IAH
would have destroyed this lackluster field.

I will agree that JL had a bad ride in the Florida Derby but after Rags broke slow in the Derby, his chances were already gone. How is that jockey error?

[Bullet Plane]

Just checked to see how Union Rags stacks up historically in this race. I looked at the final quarter fraction and the Beyer speed figures for the last 6 years for the Belmont Stakes. I got my information from the ARM.

Union Rags: 96, 26

Drosselmeyer: 94, 26 1/5

Summer Bird: 100, 25

Da' Tara: 99, 26 2/5

Rags to Riches: 107, 23 4/5

Jazil: 102, 25 1/5

He's in the bottom half in speed and final fraction.

Somebody compared him to Drosselmeyer. I'm going to look that horse's career up and get back to you...

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by Bullet Plane

Somebody compared him to Drosselmeyer. I'm going to look that horse's career up and get back to you...

Drosselmeyer did well in the JCGC and the BC Classic (won) in his 4th year. Only way UR can equal that is to do those.. and if he does it in his 3rd year, he betters that!

[nijinski]

Originally Posted by Bullet Plane

Just checked to see how Union Rags stacks up historically in this race. I looked at the final quarter fraction and the Beyer speed figures for the last 6 years for the Belmont Stakes. I got my information from the ARM.

Union Rags: 96, 26

Drosselmeyer: 94, 26 1/5

Summer Bird: 100, 25

Da' Tara: 99, 26 2/5

Rags to Riches: 107, 23 4/5

Jazil: 102, 25 1/5

He's in the bottom half in speed and final fraction.

Somebody compared him to Drosselmeyer. I'm going to look that horse's career up and get back to you...

Don't think so much that UR is being compared to Drosselmeyer .
I know I've brought him up because of the slow Belmont time .
Thunder Gulch won the Belmont in 232:02 .
He went on to win the Swaps and the Travers.
I'm not so sure of the relevance of time in a mile in half race is
looking at TG . Maybe the speed and pace figure guys here can elaborate,

[Rapid Grey]

Originally Posted by nijinski

Don't think so much that UR is being compared to Drosselmeyer .
I know I've brought him up because of the slow Belmont time .
Thunder Gulch won the Belmont in 232:02 .
He went on to win the Swaps and the Travers.
I'm not so sure of the relevance of time in a mile in half race is
looking at TG . Maybe the speed and pace figure guys here can elaborate,

There is no relevance imo unless you have more data on how other dirt races were playing on the days of those other Belmonts. I'm no speed or pace figure maker but I would guess that at a mile and half Saturday Belmont (the track) was playing at least two seconds slow and would surmise that it was probably even slower than that the day of Thunder Gulch's Belmont.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by Rapid Grey

I'm no speed or pace figure maker but I would guess that at a mile and half Saturday Belmont (the track) was playing at least two seconds slow and would surmise that it was probably even slower than that the day of Thunder Gulch's Belmont.

Belmont track speed was close to normal on Saturday. It was close to two seconds slow over 12f on the day that Thunder Gulch won.

[Rapid Grey]

Originally Posted by RXB

Belmont track speed was close to normal on Saturday. It was close to two seconds slow over 12f on the day that Thunder Gulch won.

Yep, and posters on here thought it was normal on Met Mile day too.

[toetoe]

Okay, I'll say it: East Coast bias.

This horse may be the next Commendable, Jazil or Da Tara. Is that a good thing ? N-n-no.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by Rapid Grey

Yep, and posters on here thought it was normal on Met Mile day too.

Float your idea that the track was "at least two seconds slow" for 12f to some of the best figuremakers in the business-- one of whom is a moderator for this forum. See what kind of support you get.

In fact, the track on Saturday was quite near its average speed.

[Rapid Grey]

Originally Posted by RXB

Float your idea that the track was "at least two seconds slow" for 12f to some of the best figuremakers in the business-- one of whom is a moderator for this forum. See what kind of support you get.

In fact, the track on Saturday was quite near its average speed.

it's an opinion, like most everything else pertaining to playing the game. going forward I'll play the final time of the Belmont to be better/faster than evidently you and "some of the best figuremakers in the business" do, maybe it will help me cash a ticket in the future, maybe it won't. Either way I'll not fall prey to the herd mentality of looking at a final time on paper and judging a horse's effort, relative to his peers, on it.