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Old 01-10-2021, 12:55 PM   #31
Robert Fischer
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post

IMO, the value is in information not publicly available or especially that's being misunderstood by other serious players.
Efficient market. "Priced in".

100% agree


Yes, the general, publicly available info is accurate for most horses. If you are using the same info and speed figures, in the same ways, you will be splitting your takeout-reduced winnings with a bunch of other players, and it will be a negative ROI in the long term.

Wildcard
Playing with public info, or exclusive info, occasionally 'unknown' horses do occur.
Good example of a winning type = Chilean-bred SANENUS in yesterday's Grade 3, La Canada Stakes at Santa Anita. $17Win.

I don't have a good strategy for wildcard/unknown types. I'll glance at the board, but true unknowns tend to hover in the mid-range prices.

Exclusive Inside Info: These can come from your own insight as you watch races. Unfortunately, I don't have all the big trainers, grooms and jockeys in my DMs/on speed dial. Occasionally the money talks. You see a horse hot or cold, and it's worth considering.

Misunderstood: 'Hype' overrated are the easiest, but not very frequent. You have to do some digging in the pace figures, and pace projector, and/or watching races in order to form an occasional disagreement with the consensus betting market.
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Old 01-10-2021, 01:03 PM   #32
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I think we are have the same theology but have a different approach. I think your example is trying to find the missing information, my approach is to sit back and let others, like you, tell me what the missing information is via the public markets. So where your approach will be limited to watching the races at NYRA tracks, I can use my approach from Belmont to Longchamp to Sha Tin to Flemmington.
If you can use the betting markets to find overlays everywhere that's great. I'd way rather not watch hours of replays every week.

I don't bet NYRA as much anymore. I focus on higher quality races around the country, but even when NYRA has high quality races or race days, the fields tend to be small, dominated by some logical favorite, or my views seem fully reflected on the board. I'm playing more turf these days where the fields are larger, but who wants to spend their life trying to find a single Chad Brown horse that's not a threat to move forward or get a perfect trip to beat you.

I kind of like CD, KEE, OP, GP, TAM, FG, MTH etc.. I'm not sure if it's the efficiency of the pools or something else, but I just seem to find more playable races for what I am doing.
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Old 01-10-2021, 02:39 PM   #33
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As somebody stated earlier in the thread, identifying a vulnerable odds-on favorite is all fine and good, but if you don't have positive insights into viable alternatives, you're still stuck at the fork in the road, with little to help to decide which way to go.

I prefer identifying the alternative before concerning myself whether the fav is viably vulnerable. I'll usually be excited about a horse I think is being disrespected on the tote, then assess the favorite's chances.

It's best to know where you want to go, then figure out how you'll get there. Meaning, know your target, then determine if anything is in the way of you hitting it.
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Old 01-10-2021, 03:32 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Onesome View Post
I think we are have the same theology but have a different approach. I think your example is trying to find the missing information, my approach is to sit back and let others, like you, tell me what the missing information is via the public markets. So where your approach will be limited to watching the races at NYRA tracks, I can use my approach from Belmont to Longchamp to Sha Tin to Flemmington.
Nice to see that someone else understands the objective realities of this game. Until those people who have a sincere interest realize that this game is all about money, they will continue to pursue that fleeting goal through their experiences using limited information and its subjective interpretation. The markets can certainly be considered “public” (domain), but those making up a portion of the betting population and consistently having a major influence are anything but public.
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Old 01-10-2021, 04:12 PM   #35
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Misunderstood: 'Hype' overrated are the easiest, but not very frequent. You have to do some digging in the pace figures, and pace projector, and/or watching races in order to form an occasional disagreement with the consensus betting market.
That's the most interesting category because it's so complex.

Most of these are either horses with very good records but slower speed figures or horses with fast figures that haven't faced a stern test of their quality.

Most people these days allow the figures to dictate their thinking.

I think some of those slower horses with outstanding records are capable of running faster, but some are just not as good as their record indicates.

I think some of the fast horses that faced weak competition will wilt under quality pressure and some will run even faster when pressured.

The skill is in knowing what you are dealing with before they reveal it by being tested.
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Old 01-10-2021, 06:30 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
..........................



I will dutch 3 or 4 horses against the fave picking those that I think have the best chance to beat him



comments?



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Grinding it out has never worked for me, it's horizontal bets with the occasional big hit that keeps me going.
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Old 01-11-2021, 10:17 AM   #37
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Occasionally the money talks. You see a horse hot or cold, and it's worth considering.
Frustrating yesterday. Had 3 horses in 3 different races. Won the first pick. Horse slammed at break, and then in a race long drive, surging through traffic, finishing 2nd for a $45/1 ex. Narrowly missed a nice dime super with a horse I considered including 4th. Still a solid win. Losing focus and attention, so I opted towards passing the rest of the day.
Next pick came up, and I glanced at him, and ICE COLD on the board. So, I figure; "Money Talks" maybe shouldn't be the favorite, but should be obvious as a threat from a top barn, - and so that it's most likely that the horse isn't at his best today. Wins at a big price. Then the 3rd horse won at a big price.



was good to have had some luck with the selections, but the betting and the woulda-coulda-shoulda was frustrating
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Old 01-11-2021, 11:45 AM   #38
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Next pick came up, and I glanced at him, and ICE COLD on the board. So, I figure; "Money Talks" maybe shouldn't be the favorite, but should be obvious as a threat from a top barn,
I suspect the "Money Talks" angle works better with horses that gamblers have to guess about like first time starters, layoffs, first time turf, some shippers, a consistent horse that ran poorly last time for no obvious reason, horses that usually work regularly but have gaps in their workouts recently and things like that. Those are the kinds of situations where insiders have a clear edge in knowing the talent of the horses, the status of the horse, whether it's ready for an "A" race etc..

Some of the other situations where people are yelling "they knew" are more likely to be the opposite. The person yelling "they knew" simply "didn't know" what a lot of other people did.

Maybe the are using a different set of figures, missed a bias or trip, missed a trainer pattern, or misunderstood a certain trip or situation, but they are starting from the perspective that they know everything and are always right. So they conclude it had to be some insider when it was just the public doing a better job on that race.
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Old 01-11-2021, 12:47 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
Frustrating yesterday. Had 3 horses in 3 different races. Won the first pick. Horse slammed at break, and then in a race long drive, surging through traffic, finishing 2nd for a $45/1 ex. Narrowly missed a nice dime super with a horse I considered including 4th. Still a solid win. Losing focus and attention, so I opted towards passing the rest of the day.
Next pick came up, and I glanced at him, and ICE COLD on the board. So, I figure; "Money Talks" maybe shouldn't be the favorite, but should be obvious as a threat from a top barn, - and so that it's most likely that the horse isn't at his best today. Wins at a big price. Then the 3rd horse won at a big price.
was good to have had some luck with the selections, but the betting and the woulda-coulda-shoulda was frustrating
Re: the 2nd race....does your process consider tote action normally?

If the answer is no then why did you care about it in this race and just follow your process?

If the answer is yes then why did you care about the result of the race? You obviously made a judgment that 'this scenario isn't profitable' for you (either via data or 'gut').

Results are just variance, they don't matter, only the process does.
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Old 01-11-2021, 01:10 PM   #40
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Re: the 2nd race....does your process consider tote action normally?

If the answer is no then why did you care about it in this race and just follow your process?

If the answer is yes then why did you care about the result of the race? You obviously made a judgment that 'this scenario isn't profitable' for you (either via data or 'gut').

Results are just variance, they don't matter, only the process does.
Good stuff.


-Tote Action: Yes, I consider the tote for horses that are somewhat of a wildcard, with some unknowns. In this case, (Tampa r8 pps=spendthrift, Cross Traffic sire)there was no standout in my opinion, and the favorite was in a low% barn. The was in the barn of a trainer that I follow. He had weird form running at PRM and WRD, and just 1 race at Gulfstream for $25k. Today's race was Tampa OC16Nx1?... I knew he was a wildcard, but the tote opened up at 12-1 or so with the smaller bettors, and dropped to his morning line of 6-1 at off... Pace was fast, and he was able to establish a stalking position, inherit the lead, take first run, and grind home. $15.40 $7.60 $4.80

literally had the PPs scrolled and fixed on the horse, but I had doubts


I agree w/ being 'Process Oriented' and unaffected by Results.

Greed etc... gets me a bit, and also want to be sure that a trial-and-error process is running
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Old 01-11-2021, 01:37 PM   #41
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...................


I strongly disagree that the public always or almost always prices horses correctly

I'm going to point to one race and I'm fully aware that one race doesn't prove anything

the Malibu Stakes


several posters here, posted that Charlatan looked like the much stronger horse than Nashville - he had Grade 1 experience as did all the other horses in the race. and had run in longer races. he also had higher speed figures - Nashville had only run in a minor stakes. Nashville's best race was at 6, now he was going to have to go 7 furlongs - he had never gone that far - it was pretty obvious to many here that there was a good chance the G1 horses would run him down

and all those posters here who said that were right

Nashville finished a weak 4th more than 8 lengths back

But Nashville was made the fave at 1.3/1

I'm all but sure it had nothing to do with insiders

it had to do with the public mistakenly guessing that Nashville was going to be sensational because of his one excellent race at a shorter distance


this is just one example - but there are lots
it may not happen often - but it happens sometimes



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Old 01-11-2021, 01:49 PM   #42
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It's just your post like it's something brilliant or unique is funny.


excuse me Sir,

this is what I posted:



Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
....................


- when I wrote something new

I meant new for me

I'm well aware that many others have done this before me

*


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Old 01-11-2021, 01:57 PM   #43
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I know what you SAID, but you still made repeated posts defending your "logic". I don't even get the point of why you posted, but then I feel that way with most of what I read here lately.
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Old 01-11-2021, 02:23 PM   #44
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I don't even get the point of why you posted, but then I feel that way with most of what I read here lately.
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Old 01-11-2021, 04:43 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
...................


I strongly disagree that the public always or almost always prices horses correctly

I'm going to point to one race and I'm fully aware that one race doesn't prove anything

the Malibu Stakes


several posters here, posted that Charlatan looked like the much stronger horse than Nashville - he had Grade 1 experience as did all the other horses in the race. and had run in longer races. he also had higher speed figures - Nashville had only run in a minor stakes. Nashville's best race was at 6, now he was going to have to go 7 furlongs - he had never gone that far - it was pretty obvious to many here that there was a good chance the G1 horses would run him down

and all those posters here who said that were right

Nashville finished a weak 4th more than 8 lengths back

But Nashville was made the fave at 1.3/1

I'm all but sure it had nothing to do with insiders

it had to do with the public mistakenly guessing that Nashville was going to be sensational because of his one excellent race at a shorter distance


this is just one example - but there are lots
it may not happen often - but it happens sometimes



*
Of course the public makes mistakes and always will. There are 2 problems with your strategy.

1) Overbet odds on favorites (as a group) are probably the most accurately prices horses in racing. Odds on favorites are already very accurately priced and if you add in the fact that they are dramatically overbet, you are adding a lot of "smart money" into the equation. Just to give you an example (from harness racing but same idea) I find that odds on horses I make 3-1 or higher win just as often as odds on favorites as do horses I make 2-1 or less. Logically that doesn't make a lot of sense to me but it tells me that when that kind of heavy money is going down on a horse there is usually a very good reason.

2) Lets assume that despite point 1 you are still very good at finding vulnerable odds on favorites. The problem with your strategy is you are often wasting money on poor value horses. Also because you are dutching you are weighting them equally based off public odds and not your opinion.

Let's take a hypothetical race.

The 4 is 3/5
The 2 is 4-1
The 5 is 6-1
The 8 is 10-1
The 12 is 12-1

in your opinion you feel these the 2-5-8-12 is the dutch against the overbet 4. So it cost you $51 to potentially get back $100. IMO (obviously you feel differently) a 3/5 shot that you thing is way overbet will still win about half the time. You would have to win 100% of your dutches to just break even.

Looking it a different way your 4 horse dutch will likely win 85% of the time the favorite loses(a little less on larger fields, a little higher on shorter fields).
Since your break even point is about 51% you would need the odds on favorites to win only 40% of the time along with your 85% hit rate on the dutch to break even(.60*.85 is equal to 51%).

Now if you can get 3-5 shots to win only 40%(which is a tall order but maybe you are that sharp and selective) of the time and you are getting nice rebates (maybe 5 or 6%) this can work for you. But for a layperson just trying to beat "overbet" odds on favorites with no rebate, this would be a terrible strategy. My opinion, you have to be very good and have to get nice rebates to make this work. If you are able to get those kind of rebates and are good enough to get it to work, it is a high probability play, so you can grow a bankroll pretty quickly. Personally I would prefer this strategy more for the pick 4 and pick 5 pools. Because in those pools people need singles and will latch on to 3/5 shots. Of course not every race is the start of a pick 4 or pick 5 (but a lot of tracks have rolling pick 3's-same idea but not nearly as effective since many really do not need singles in a pick 3).
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