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Old 09-17-2020, 11:10 AM   #121
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Drug trainers in general turn me off to the product. The last few years I couldn't bet Monmouth, a track I like, because Servis and Navarro had too many horses. To me, that completely ruins the racing because if one of them has a horse in the race that they just got in their barn, you couldn't really handicap the race because if that horse reacted well to the crap they were using, it was going to win easily. These corrupt trainers are a scourge to the industry.
I'm always very honest here (even if I'm mistaken) .

Back when I was a kid in the days of Barrera, Ferriola and others I didn't mind that some trainers might be cheating because I was young, trying to cash bets, it was mostly limited to claiming races (Shifty Sheik excepted) and there was less info in the DRF and other sources. So there was a chance I could get an edge from it too.

Now that I'm older or let's call it more mature, I realize how much the cheating is impacting other trainers, owners, breeder's, riders, and most importantly potentially the health of the horses. But what's even worse, the cheating (or rule bending if you want to call it that instead) imo is now more prevalent in Graded Stakes races. To me, it's bad enough when some old claiming horse with back class jumps back up after a few weeks in a new barn, imo Graded Stakes is a line that should not be crossed or tolerated at all.
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Old 09-17-2020, 11:48 AM   #122
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Unfortunately, rules aren't the only things being bent, broken, and shattered.


With cheaters you always have to ask yourself "how far will they go to win?" and then wonder how many horses have been held together with *whatever*......... to win just one more race.

And much to their detriment and comfort.
People love the horses, but in the end they are a vehicle to economic sustainability, they are live stock and not pets.

No one wants to hear that and obviously the scale on feelings about stuff like that will vary but my personal experience working in Ky at both the farm and the track you certainly get that feeling a bit.
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Old 09-17-2020, 12:21 PM   #123
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I'm always very honest here (even if I'm mistaken) .

Back when I was a kid in the days of Barrera, Ferriola and others I didn't mind that some trainers might be cheating because I was young, trying to cash bets, it was mostly limited to claiming races (Shifty Sheik excepted) and there was less info in the DRF and other sources. So there was a chance I could get an edge from it too.

Now that I'm older or let's call it more mature, I realize how much the cheating is impacting other trainers, owners, breeder's, riders, and most importantly potentially the health of the horses. But what's even worse, the cheating (or rule bending if you want to call it that instead) imo is now more prevalent in Graded Stakes races. To me, it's bad enough when some old claiming horse with back class jumps back up after a few weeks in a new barn, imo Graded Stakes is a line that should not be crossed or tolerated at all.
Lava Man may be the horse that pissed me off the most, for precisely that reason. It was so obvious. Every time he left California, he couldn't duplicate his form.
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Old 09-17-2020, 03:00 PM   #124
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Lava Man may be the horse that pissed me off the most, for precisely that reason. It was so obvious. Every time he left California, he couldn't duplicate his form.
I felt the same way about Sky Beauty.
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Old 09-17-2020, 04:01 PM   #125
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Arrogate was a generational talent.
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Baffert has had more than his share of generational talents
touché
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Old 09-18-2020, 12:27 AM   #126
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I'm always very honest here (even if I'm mistaken) .

Back when I was a kid in the days of Barrera, Ferriola and others I didn't mind that some trainers might be cheating because I was young, trying to cash bets, it was mostly limited to claiming races (Shifty Sheik excepted) and there was less info in the DRF and other sources. So there was a chance I could get an edge from it too.

Now that I'm older or let's call it more mature, I realize how much the cheating is impacting other trainers, owners, breeder's, riders, and most importantly potentially the health of the horses. But what's even worse, the cheating (or rule bending if you want to call it that instead) imo is now more prevalent in Graded Stakes races. To me, it's bad enough when some old claiming horse with back class jumps back up after a few weeks in a new barn, imo Graded Stakes is a line that should not be crossed or tolerated at all.
Absolutely. What Baffert has done is much worse then doping claimers. He has altered the course of sports history, robbing racehorses of their rightly place in the history of the sport, robbing owners, jockeys, trainers, of major wins in prestigious races. And, think of how it affects the breeding industry.

Since the industry, and especially the CHRB, has protected him, what I'd like to see is tracks start to make him put all of his stakes shippers into detention barns under 24-hour surveillance. Based on his horrible record of horse deaths and drug infractions, I think this is warranted.
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Old 09-18-2020, 11:44 AM   #127
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Absolutely. What Baffert has done is much worse then doping claimers.
Just for the record, I'm on board with all your goals, but I am clueless as to what Baffert is doing, if anything, other than the positives we know about. I just know he gets great stock, some of them perform in other worldly fashion, some have huge quick jump ups, and others defy my own handicapping judgement more often than for most other top trainers with good stock.

On the flip side, we already have evidence and arrests of others that were cheating and using PEDs in stakes with rumors of more to come.
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Old 09-18-2020, 01:00 PM   #128
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Just for the record, I'm on board with all your goals, but I am clueless as to what Baffert is doing, if anything, other than the positives we know about. I just know he gets great stock, some of them perform in other worldly fashion, some have huge quick jump ups, and others defy my own handicapping judgement more often than for most other top trainers with good stock.

On the flip side, we already have evidence and arrests of others that were cheating and using PEDs in stakes with rumors of more to come.
Setting beside Authentic, who are these horses who defied your handicapping judgement?

And is that more an indictment of your handicapping than of anything that baffert is doing that others are not?

And remember Baffert runs in all these jurisdictions, to my knowledge he has never had a positive at NYRA or Ky.
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Old 09-18-2020, 04:51 PM   #129
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Setting beside Authentic, who are these horses who defied your handicapping judgement?
I'd have to spend a some time looking through his horses to make a list, but I already discussed that imo Arrogate's jump up was not typical. I'd put Gamine's jump up into that category also.

Lightly raced horses get better al the time. Occasionally one will run a single huge race with a favorable trip or bias. But horses usually don't jump up from what I would consider high level prospect to "all time great" level in a few weeks. They also don't usually stagger at 9F twice and then repulse bids and rebreak at 10F without breaking a sweat just a few weeks later.

It's not unusual for me to handicap a race and say to myself "if this was anyone other than Baffert, I'd have confidence leaving him out" but from experience I know those horses will often outrun their PPs.
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Old 09-18-2020, 05:01 PM   #130
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I'd have to spend a some time looking through his horses to make a list, but I already discussed that imo Arrogate's jump up was not typical. I'd put Gamine's jump up into that category also.

Lightly raced horses get better al the time. Occasionally one will run a single huge race with a favorable trip or bias. But horses usually don't jump up from what I would consider high level prospect to "all time great" level in a few weeks. They also don't usually stagger at 9F twice and then repulse bids and rebreak at 10F without breaking a sweat just a few weeks later.

It's not unusual for me to handicap a race and say to myself "if this was anyone other than Baffert, I'd have confidence leaving him out" but from experience I know those horses will often outrun their PPs.
Would you put say Bellamy Roads performance in the Wood in that category?

Most of these horses are odds on or at the very least well backed. (Authentic was third choice, Justify was odds on in just about every race he ran, and they were all very fast efforts (including his maiden against no one when there is no reason to use some super chemical).

Baffert is cheating, most are, he is just better at it than most with better stock. I dont think there is any comparison though with the chemicals that Service used and those that baffert uses. His horses often hold form for many races and there are very few 1 off efforts or horses running 50 beyers and now run 100's.
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Old 09-19-2020, 12:12 AM   #131
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Would you put say Bellamy Roads performance in the Wood in that category?

Most of these horses are odds on or at the very least well backed. (Authentic was third choice, Justify was odds on in just about every race he ran, and they were all very fast efforts (including his maiden against no one when there is no reason to use some super chemical).

Baffert is cheating, most are, he is just better at it than most with better stock. I dont think there is any comparison though with the chemicals that Service used and those that Baffert uses. His horses often hold form for many races and there are very few 1 off efforts or horses running 50 beyers and now run 100's.
Baffert's approach to the business has changed over the years. Not that he wasn't always trying to win the big races but now it seems like he is only trying to get 10 or 12 races out of his best horses. He wants to win a few big two-year-old races and then get them ready for the triple crown. Justify only ran 6 times. American Pharoah 11 times. Arrogate 11 times. Years ago he had horses that were lasting longer. I'm not so sure that horses like Silver Charm and Real Quiet were juiced like the horses he's had in the last several years.

With whatever he's giving them, he doesn't have to worry as much about inconsistent form or hurting the horse's siring ability because he's only going to race them a handful of times.

Personally, I don't think most of the trainers that have a lot of classy horses in their barns are cheating. Pletcher's horses run the way horses are supposed to run, if they get used in a fast pace, they slow down in the last quarter. In the top 10 this year, the most obvious cheats besides Baffert are Brad Cox, Diodoro, and Broberg, but they are more like raceway trainers.
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Old 09-19-2020, 12:30 AM   #132
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Personally, I don't think most of the trainers that have a lot of classy horses in their barns are cheating.
Didnt pletcher have a group of horses suddenly and inexplicably die at saratoga a few years back, similar to baffert?

The name left bank sticks in my head but maybe that is wrong, was a tabor horse, and there were others less known.
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Old 09-19-2020, 10:36 AM   #133
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Would you put say Bellamy Roads performance in the Wood in that category?
No.

I thought AQU was very kind to speed that day (last race on the card excepted when all the riders finally figured it out and got overly aggressive) and made a major play against him in the Derby given there was a lot of other speed drawn inside him on top of his race in the Wood being overrated by hype.
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Old 09-19-2020, 11:07 PM   #134
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Didnt pletcher have a group of horses suddenly and inexplicably die at saratoga a few years back, similar to baffert?

The name left bank sticks in my head but maybe that is wrong, was a tabor horse, and there were others less known.


This happened in 2002, here's a clip from an article on the topic:


"Left Bank's colic was the first in a grim series of events for Pletcher. Two days after Left Bank departed for his initial surgery, Padua Stables' graded stakes winner Freedom's Daughter succumbed to a case of the intestinal disease colitis X. Nine days after that, the Grade 3-placed colt Warners died after developing laminitis"


http://www.espn.com/horse/news/2002/1008/1443227.html
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Old 09-20-2020, 12:05 AM   #135
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People love the horses, but in the end they are a vehicle to economic sustainability, they are live stock and not pets.
There is a lot of miles between "livestock" and "pets".

And a lot of "horse people" do not consider horses to be livestock. They are considered companion animals, i.e. to work and be around humans.

Livestock is mostly bred for the table. By calling horses livestock you are putting them more on the level of swine, cows, chickens, etc.

Many little horses are now being trained as seeing eye horses. You don't do that with livestock.

And there's a reason we don't turn livestock into athletes.

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