Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapper's Corner


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 07-02-2020, 01:43 PM   #1
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Which Long Shot

To profit from exotic betting requires a mix of contenders and long shots. Picking the right long shots is critical. We all know the frequency and payback is directly correlated to the odds. I believe it is necessary to consider the longest ones possible to show a profit. Unfortunately, they seldom hit the board so run outs are long and painful.

Dave Schwartz in his study "Percentages and Possibilities, 2012", analyzed 90,020 horses with a morning line 15:1 or higher. They won 3.3% of the time and lost 35% of the money bet on them to win. Of course, one must be super selective when picking horses in this category. The only way to tell if your "good ones" are really good, is to keep track of both your picks and the ones you do not pick. You will quickly learn if you have any skill in finding those with possibility.

Looking backwards, I think I may be able separate possible ones from the impossible ones. But the proof is in picking them going forward. These long shots need not necessarily win. In exactas, trifectas, and supers one of these long shots coming in to place or show can be profitable. Races with less than 7 entries before scratches will not be considered. In cases of scratches, I'll correct the ML to 120%.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2020, 01:48 PM   #2
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
7/2/20

Bel 2

Maybe = PP#3
Pass = PP#4
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2020, 02:15 PM   #3
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Ind 1

Pass = #2,#6
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2020, 02:32 PM   #4
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
BTP 5

Maybe =#6
Pass= #4,#7,#9,#11
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2020, 02:54 PM   #5
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Bel 4

Pass = #4, #8
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2020, 03:15 PM   #6
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Ind 3

Maybe = #7, #11
Pass = #2,#8,#10,#12
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2020, 03:23 PM   #7
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
BTP 7

Pass = #1
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2020, 03:30 PM   #8
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Bel 5

Maybe #3
Pass #2,#4
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2020, 03:37 PM   #9
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Elp 4

Maybe #3, #8
Pass #1
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2020, 03:49 PM   #10
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Ind 4

Maybe #4
Pass #1, #3
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2020, 04:02 PM   #11
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Bel 6

Pass #1, #5, #6
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2020, 04:22 PM   #12
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Ind 5

Maybe #1
Pass #2
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2020, 04:30 PM   #13
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Bel 7

Pass #1, #4
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2020, 04:47 PM   #14
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Ind 6

Pass #5, #8
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2020, 05:00 PM   #15
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Bel 8

Maybe #2
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:36 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.