Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I wish the poster Awsi Dooger was a member of this site. That was a great reply...but I don't know how to reproduce it on this page. Great gambling advice!
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Simple, copy/paste.
Professional gambler in unique investment situation
Postby alwaysonit » Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:22 pm
I think my situation is unique and don't think I should use general rules of thumb. I’m 27 and am a professional gambler. I’m worth €600,000, all of which is sitting in demand deposit accounts. No debt.
I gamble an average of €15,000 per week over 200 different events with an expected profit of just over €1,000 a week. It is of course volatile, with this year only yielding an average of €500 per week and last year an average of €5,000 per week. I have lost €7,000 in a day and €68,000 over 9 months before. I have the risk of “losing my job” as people I win money from don’t want to take bets from me anymore, although I’ve found ways around this, albeit with a lower expected profit. If I were to be unable to place any more value bets, I would not get a job and instead try to live from what I have.
One rule of thumb is “Own your age in stocks”. As my income is not fixed, should I own more than my age?
Another rule of thumb is maximum tolerable loss x2 to determine stock allocation, How do I determine maximum tolerable loss? I know if I lost half of my stash I would be very upset, but be able to continue living my lifestyle for 10 more years on the other half.
Is it ok to up my equity percentage after a few years when I can assess my risk much better, for example if I experience a crash and realize that I can deal with losing 200k? Or should I have my life of investments fully planned out before I dive in and stick with it for life?
Vanguard’s investment risk calculator suggests either 60-40 or 70-30 weighted towards equity, but one question I cannot answer is the first one – “I plan to begin taking money from my investments in how many years”. Giving different answers to this I’m told to hold anywhere between 20% or 50% bonds. 4 other risk calculators called my risk levels moderate, 2 called me moderate to aggressive and 3 called me aggressive. However lots of these questions I’m answering are not specific to me so any input from Bogleheads is much appreciated