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Old 10-02-2014, 04:51 PM   #1
fmhealth
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"Professional Gambler" Follow-up

Posted the original thread about a month ago. Subsequently, there have been quite a few sage insights added. Thought my fellow compatriots would find this a bit enlightening.

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http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/view...ewpost=2210720
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Old 10-02-2014, 05:38 PM   #2
thaskalos
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I wish the poster Awsi Dooger was a member of this site. That was a great reply...but I don't know how to reproduce it on this page. Great gambling advice!
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Old 10-02-2014, 05:54 PM   #3
ReplayRandall
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I wish the poster Awsi Dooger was a member of this site. That was a great reply...but I don't know how to reproduce it on this page. Great gambling advice!

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/styl...ost_target.gifby Awsi Dooger » Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:31 am

I'm a sports bettor. That's where all my money came from. You're not betting nearly enough. That's the only aspect that jumped out at me from your summary. I wouldn't worry about other investments at all until you have your gambling act together. If those percentages are correct you should be betting many times your current weekly amount. Study the Kelly Criterion.

Of course, I moved to Las Vegas at age 24 and didn't have much trouble getting down as much as I wanted. Well, in most cases. Harrah's banned me from betting golf and enforced it for more than a decade. Many spots limited my action on basketball totals so I had to send in runners to bet for me. Relying on websites and offshore outfits I could see how it would be more problematic than I faced, although since you are not a United States citizen and subject to the nonsense inspired by Bill Frist in the lame duck senate of 2006, it shouldn't be much of an obstacle.

I want to commend you on betting hundreds of events per week. That is absolutely the correct approach. Volume and an edge. Neither one is any good without the other. And it's the mistake novice and cynics and no-chance bettors invariably make, by cherry picking a game here and there while otherwise defaulting to fear. It's much easier to go 120-90 than 25-4 but the net units are virtually identical. If you ask, "What if I lose every one?" then you shouldn't be doing this. I'm sure you don't ask that question. Sewing club types ask that question.

Also, make sure it is not a full time profession. I can't emphasize that enough. I studied my butt off in the early years to develop mechanical systems based on stats along with situational trends. I stayed up until 4 or 5 AM nightly to develop those angles so that I wouldn't have to rely on subjectivity. Nothing is more destructive to a gambler than subjectivity. When I worked behind the counter as sportsbook supervisor briefly I was stunned at how few decisions are made. Hang a number and absorb. I realized I had to replicate it as close as possible as a bettor. No second guessing that way. Virtually everything I do is plug and plug and it's been that way for two decades. My time expenditure is very low. See what fits, grab the best number and go. Off to the golf course. I also don't sweat games in progress, at least not nearly as much as I used to, or compared to the typical gambler.

From an early age I loved sports, math and puzzles. This was a perfect combination. I have no idea what somebody means by stigma. When I'm among my college buddies everybody wants to hear my gambling stories and laments what a comparatively boring life they've led. As I've emphasized here, Las Vegas sportsbooks make a ton of unbelievable errors. Those tales are inevitably the highlight of the story telling, and the mistakes have accounted for a chunk of the profit. As an early friend in Las Vegas told me, the only thing better than a great system is a dumb bookmaker

Last edited by ReplayRandall; 10-02-2014 at 05:56 PM.
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Old 10-02-2014, 06:09 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I wish the poster Awsi Dooger was a member of this site. That was a great reply...but I don't know how to reproduce it on this page. Great gambling advice!
Simple, copy/paste.

Professional gambler in unique investment situation
Postby alwaysonit » Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:22 pm

I think my situation is unique and don't think I should use general rules of thumb. I’m 27 and am a professional gambler. I’m worth €600,000, all of which is sitting in demand deposit accounts. No debt.

I gamble an average of €15,000 per week over 200 different events with an expected profit of just over €1,000 a week. It is of course volatile, with this year only yielding an average of €500 per week and last year an average of €5,000 per week. I have lost €7,000 in a day and €68,000 over 9 months before. I have the risk of “losing my job” as people I win money from don’t want to take bets from me anymore, although I’ve found ways around this, albeit with a lower expected profit. If I were to be unable to place any more value bets, I would not get a job and instead try to live from what I have.

One rule of thumb is “Own your age in stocks”. As my income is not fixed, should I own more than my age?

Another rule of thumb is maximum tolerable loss x2 to determine stock allocation, How do I determine maximum tolerable loss? I know if I lost half of my stash I would be very upset, but be able to continue living my lifestyle for 10 more years on the other half.

Is it ok to up my equity percentage after a few years when I can assess my risk much better, for example if I experience a crash and realize that I can deal with losing 200k? Or should I have my life of investments fully planned out before I dive in and stick with it for life?

Vanguard’s investment risk calculator suggests either 60-40 or 70-30 weighted towards equity, but one question I cannot answer is the first one – “I plan to begin taking money from my investments in how many years”. Giving different answers to this I’m told to hold anywhere between 20% or 50% bonds. 4 other risk calculators called my risk levels moderate, 2 called me moderate to aggressive and 3 called me aggressive. However lots of these questions I’m answering are not specific to me so any input from Bogleheads is much appreciated
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Old 10-02-2014, 06:21 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/styl...ost_target.gifby Awsi Dooger » Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:31 am

I'm a sports bettor. That's where all my money came from. You're not betting nearly enough. That's the only aspect that jumped out at me from your summary. I wouldn't worry about other investments at all until you have your gambling act together. If those percentages are correct you should be betting many times your current weekly amount. Study the Kelly Criterion.

Of course, I moved to Las Vegas at age 24 and didn't have much trouble getting down as much as I wanted. Well, in most cases. Harrah's banned me from betting golf and enforced it for more than a decade. Many spots limited my action on basketball totals so I had to send in runners to bet for me. Relying on websites and offshore outfits I could see how it would be more problematic than I faced, although since you are not a United States citizen and subject to the nonsense inspired by Bill Frist in the lame duck senate of 2006, it shouldn't be much of an obstacle.

I want to commend you on betting hundreds of events per week. That is absolutely the correct approach. Volume and an edge. Neither one is any good without the other. And it's the mistake novice and cynics and no-chance bettors invariably make, by cherry picking a game here and there while otherwise defaulting to fear. It's much easier to go 120-90 than 25-4 but the net units are virtually identical. If you ask, "What if I lose every one?" then you shouldn't be doing this. I'm sure you don't ask that question. Sewing club types ask that question.

Also, make sure it is not a full time profession. I can't emphasize that enough. I studied my butt off in the early years to develop mechanical systems based on stats along with situational trends. I stayed up until 4 or 5 AM nightly to develop those angles so that I wouldn't have to rely on subjectivity. Nothing is more destructive to a gambler than subjectivity. When I worked behind the counter as sportsbook supervisor briefly I was stunned at how few decisions are made. Hang a number and absorb. I realized I had to replicate it as close as possible as a bettor. No second guessing that way. Virtually everything I do is plug and plug and it's been that way for two decades. My time expenditure is very low. See what fits, grab the best number and go. Off to the golf course. I also don't sweat games in progress, at least not nearly as much as I used to, or compared to the typical gambler.

From an early age I loved sports, math and puzzles. This was a perfect combination. I have no idea what somebody means by stigma. When I'm among my college buddies everybody wants to hear my gambling stories and laments what a comparatively boring life they've led. As I've emphasized here, Las Vegas sportsbooks make a ton of unbelievable errors. Those tales are inevitably the highlight of the story telling, and the mistakes have accounted for a chunk of the profit. As an early friend in Las Vegas told me, the only thing better than a great system is a dumb bookmaker
Thanks Randall.
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Old 10-02-2014, 06:22 PM   #6
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Old 10-02-2014, 07:11 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spiderman
Simple, copy/paste.
You might want to re-phrase that in the future........a bit inappropriate.
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