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Old 07-09-2018, 01:48 PM   #541
lamboguy
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Be careful, all you gold lovers.

With the Trump economy just beginning to take off, the US dollar will get stronger, not weaker. Add to this the risk of a clueless Federal Reserve talking up a possible rise in long term interest rates. This bodes for gold dropping even more.
gold is only an insurance play. it happens to look great right now, but hopefully it doesn't run forever.
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Old 07-09-2018, 01:51 PM   #542
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ETFs are the absolute worst investments an investor could make. Ignore all the TV chatter about them. They are very risky and ETF buyers must own the bad and poorly run companies as well as the Apple, Netflix, Gilead holdings they may have in that ETF portfolio.

Also, most ETFs are more expensive than many of the same individual companies they may hold, such as those I named above.

Buying individual companies at the right price is the only ticket to stock investing success. All three named above are selling at a fraction of their intrinsic value, even Netflix, a stock now kissing $420 -- $300 dollars more than when I was first asked about it on this very site.

If Netflix worries you because of the sharp run-up, then Apple, Accenture, Gilead, Johnson and Johnson, Lazard, Master Card and a few more unnamed smaller companies are still dirt cheap by my methodology and analysis.

Don't be afraid. The business media will destroy the frightened investor of all stripes with their doom and gloom and mistaken analysis. Ignore them and those hack experts they interview.

I will not mislead you -- go for it but be smart and judicious.
The only ETF I own is XOP, mostly I have individual E&Ps and REITs.
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Old 07-09-2018, 01:56 PM   #543
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The Fed seems quite dovish to me on interest rates, reckless, and I think you're not considering the impact of this so-called "trade war."

Gold/silver due for a little bump this summer.
The 'trade' war is a farce, perpetuated by the hate Trump politicians and Wall Street speculators along with their ill-informed hacks in business media.

There are hundreds of billions of dollars in trade deficits between the USA and China, the EU and both Canada and Mexico. Trade deficits are not good for America, American workers and the US economy.

All these countries are in worse shape fiscally than the USA and you can go to the bank that they will blink first and fast. We will win this 'war' hands down, and we will close the huge trade deficit gap in time.

But, the same trade 'war' headlines could make the stock markets being jumpy, I don't dispute that.

Yes, Mike, you are correct about the Fed hinting otherwise ... but I saw that as the Fed Chairman Powell simply being somewhat unsure of where to go with future rates. Remember the Fed only looks out for the best interests of their masters -- the large international banking system and Central governments, and not us.

We could never take what the Fed says at face value, regardless of how we personally feel about economics, finance or politics.
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Old 07-09-2018, 02:07 PM   #544
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The only ETF I own is XOP, mostly I have individual E&Ps and REITs.
I have owned HollyFrontier for years and have a nice capital gains but I have no interest in selling at this time, despite a big runup. I did own Statoil for a long time, but sold that months ago to free up some cash. It's a higher now by a few points but that's the way it goes.

My very first stock purchase right out of high school was Texaco, and that success made me a life-long believer in stock investing.

What type of REITs are you in? I always thought they were not the best way to invest money, especially those involved in shopping malls and E & Ps ... just my opinion.

Good luck with all your investments.
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Old 07-09-2018, 02:30 PM   #545
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Apartments and campus housing mainly, one farmland REIT, one healthcare. The interest rate scare has pushed the stock prices down some so it's a little bit contrarian with dividends paid.
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Old 07-10-2018, 06:51 AM   #546
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Apartments and campus housing mainly, one farmland REIT, one healthcare. The interest rate scare has pushed the stock prices down some so it's a little bit contrarian with dividends paid.
Sounds like you're doing well; good for you. Do you think the new Trump Tax Bill will favor REITs investors since many dividends paid out from REITs are actually Return on Investment income?

Good luck with all your investments.
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Old 07-10-2018, 12:51 PM   #547
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40,000 Dow by 2025

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/03/here...0-by-2025.html
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Old 07-10-2018, 12:51 PM   #548
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I believe the dividends are just ordinary dividends so no net effect. MLP distributions are usually return of capital so not taxable, govco has been messing with them but I haven't got any MLPs so haven't been keeping up with the tax changes.
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Old 07-10-2018, 01:09 PM   #549
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i hope it gets there, stays there for about 5 years and that i am around to see it!
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Old 07-10-2018, 03:08 PM   #550
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i hope it gets there, stays there for about 5 years and that i am around to see it!
I am not picking any date when the Dow eventually hits 30-35-even 40,000.

I have already posted that the Dow will hit 30,000 long before it hits 15,000, which will give the Trump haters another deserving bout of agita.

This will be another thumb in the eye of all the Trump bashers and knuckleheads who say Trump is clueless; Manhattan real estate is different than world-business; Trump's a dope; corporations will clean his clock; companies won't return to the USA, Romney's resume is more impressive than Trump's, etc., etc.

You know, simple stupidity of the highest order.

This yuuuuge run in stock market prices since Nov. 2016 lay directly at the feet of Trump economic policies, (future) trade deals and tariffs, ending ObamaCare with the elimination of the Individual and Corporate mandate -- the heart and soul and the nuts and bolts of Obama Care; ending onerous regulation, plus both business and consumer confidence that has regularly tilted upward since Inauguration Day.

The common sense deniers and the Trump haters may say differently, but who cares what they say or even think? They've been so wrong all the time that any opinion of theirs about Trump should be met with laughter -- or better yet, be totally ignored.
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Old 07-10-2018, 03:11 PM   #551
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I believe the dividends are just ordinary dividends so no net effect. MLP distributions are usually return of capital so not taxable, govco has been messing with them but I haven't got any MLPs so haven't been keeping up with the tax changes.
That's good. Are you of the age where dividend income is more important to you than capital gains?
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Old 07-11-2018, 11:25 AM   #552
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ETFs are the absolute worst investments an investor could make. Ignore all the TV chatter about them. They are very risky and ETF buyers must own the bad and poorly run companies as well as the Apple, Netflix, Gilead holdings they may have in that ETF portfolio.

Also, most ETFs are more expensive than many of the same individual companies they may hold, such as those I named above.

Buying individual companies at the right price is the only ticket to stock investing success. All three named above are selling at a fraction of their intrinsic value, even Netflix, a stock now kissing $420 -- $300 dollars more than when I was first asked about it on this very site.

If Netflix worries you because of the sharp run-up, then Apple, Accenture, Gilead, Johnson and Johnson, Lazard, Master Card and a few more unnamed smaller companies are still dirt cheap by my methodology and analysis.

Don't be afraid. The business media will destroy the frightened investor of all stripes with their doom and gloom and mistaken analysis. Ignore them and those hack experts they interview.

I will not mislead you -- go for it but be smart and judicious.
I’m going to chime in here agreeing with reckless on the issue of ETF’s and mutual funds in general. The biggest flaw in their structure is that managers are hamstrung by withdrawals and the need to sell assets into market downturns as their retail base panics. The theoretical best money manager in the world simply HAS TO SELL regardless of the buying opportunities presented when they are faced with a declining market and demand for withdrawals.

It’s a case of the client telling the experienced manager what to do. Regardless of your own risk tolerance, you are along for that ride when you own an ETF or mutual fund.

I make a carve out for closed end funds where the fixed number of shares eliminates that risk. It also opens up the opportunity to own shares at below NAV. The bond portion of my portfolio is divided into 3 CEF’s co-managed by 3 of the best bond managers on the planet and I’m still shocked that I was able to buy each at a significant discount to their actual value.

There are plenty of other risks in this space (leverage and high management fees are common) but for me the 40% of my portfolio in bonds isn’t something I can manage on my own and this has turned out (so far) to have been a great solution.

There are lots of equity CEF’s also. It’s a space that has little coverage in most of the business media. But if you want to own a professionally managed portfolio and like the idea of buying $100 in stock for $95, CEF’s can offer that opportunity.
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Old 07-11-2018, 11:34 AM   #553
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The bond portion of my portfolio is divided into 3 CEF’s co-managed by 3 of the best bond managers on the planet and I’m still shocked that I was able to buy each at a significant discount to their actual value.
Just curious Don, what underlying reason did you come up with to explain the significant discount you believed you received?
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Old 07-11-2018, 11:41 AM   #554
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Just curious Don, what underlying reason did you come up with to explain the significant discount you believed you received?
The underlying value of a CEF is it’s net asset value which is published daily. That number is simply the market value of all it’s holdings divided by the number of shares outstanding (the latter is a constant for a CEF). The market price on a CEF can often vary widely from the NAV.

I use this website:

http://cefdata.com/funds/dsl/

to monitor discounts/premiums. That link is going to return one of my bond funds but you can use the search function in the upper right corner to research any CEF.

The bond CEF universe is dominated by retail investors, probably more so than the mutual fund and ETF industries. There is very little institutional ownership because of the higher management fees and the fact that any institution would in effect be charging a fee over these fees to any clients.

Retail investors are, in general, a skittish bunch. They tend to move in a pack and those flows create (in a CEF) buying and selling opportunities as the funds market price responds independent of the actual NAV.

Specifically, I bought these bond funds when there was a narrative that bond yields would be rising and ALL BOND PRICES would fall off a cliff. That created discounts on the funds I purchased of from 8-10%. Although that narrative still exists, the discount on 2 of the 3 funds I own has evaporated while the NAV has also increased on all of them.

Last edited by _______; 07-11-2018 at 11:50 AM.
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Old 07-11-2018, 11:46 AM   #555
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The underlying value of a CEF is it’s net asset value which is published daily. That number is simply the market value of all it’s holdings divided by the number of shares outstanding (the latter is a constant for a CEF). The market price on a CEF can often vary widely from the NAV.

I use this website:

http://cefdata.com/funds/dsl/

to monitor discounts/premiums. That link is going to return one of my bond funds but you can use the search function in the upper right corner to research any CEF.

You must have a great deal of faith in "whom" assigns the net asset value, unless you believe it's totally non-human driven.

"Whom" gives you the market value of all it’s holdings.....Trust factor these figs are legit

"Whom" gives you the number of shares outstanding......Trust factor these figs are accurate

Last edited by ReplayRandall; 07-11-2018 at 11:51 AM.
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