odds change

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by mountainman

While the process of constructing personalized oddslines is frequently discussed (and discussed..and discussed...) here on pace, nobody ever brings up the importance of a player's ability to predict actual closing odds.
How can value be identified unless a horse's true chances can be compared to its final price? And the odds can change so dramatically within a min or so to post-and even AFTER a race is underway- that smart wagers can be rendered stupid when it's too late for the player to cancel or adjust.

no arguement there mark, my problem is when a horse leaves the gate with $10,000 bet on him in the win pool, and arives in the winners circle with only $7000. my question is where did all the money go in less than 2 minutes?

[BombsAway Bob]

Originally Posted by Imriledup

Its the oldest trick in the book. Bet down a horse to odds to scare away other players and at the last second, create real value for yourself by cancelling a bunch of wagers. The pools there are too small, so if you want to gain an edge as a big bettor, you have to try some sleight of hand.

I noticed a variation of that ruse @ LosAL last year. Many bettors play LosAL as a "get out" track, since they run late. Someone was putting down a decent win bet on a hopeless longshot in the first race, opening leg of the guaranteed Pick-4. Since the pools are small, between $500 & $900 bet early on a horse knocks his odds waaaay down. People putting together quick Pick-4 plays would see the "odds-on" fave in race 1, and include it in their tickets. Then, between 5 and 2 minutes to post, when the majority of win bets came in, the "steam horse" win money would be pulled from the pool as more "tote-followers" money came on the stiff.
I contacted Orlando G. at LosAL about the ruse. He did a search of cancelled bets on one race I noticed, & the bets were mostly $50 & $100 Win tickets, cancelled close to posttime. After I had him have his mutuels dept.check on the abnormality, the practice seemed to come to a halt.
With TVG bets now open to cancellation by the player, I wonder if someone will try to manipulate win pools at a small track in the future?

[supercap]

If you let the odds effect your choice of a horse is that really handicapping? Are you not letting the betting public influence your selection? Give me your number I will gladly take your money!

[supercap]

Do you go to the track and just look at the tote board , go to the window and bet?

[Frontenac]

Originally Posted by supercap

If you let the odds effect your choice of a horse is that really handicapping? Are you not letting the betting public influence your selection? Give me your number I will gladly take your money!

No odds = No bet!

That's why it's frustrating for serious horse players to see the odds swing so wildly after post time.

[cj]

There is simply no way this should be allowed. Anything in racing that is going to even give the hint of impropriety should be illegal.

[2low]

Post Time should mean "post the final odds time". The button is pushed when the clock hits zero.

GG puts a timer up on their feed. I shouldn't be able to enter a bet (or take one back) once that clock hits zero.

By the time the horses are loaded, we should have the simulcast money accounted for if it were done this way. At least the lag time would be short enough they could hold the horses until given the final odds go sign.

[ryesteve]

Originally Posted by supercap

If you let the odds effect your choice of a horse is that really handicapping?

No, it's wagering. You need to separate the two.

[dav4463]

I've heard conspiracies that horses may be getting bet after they leave the gate. How do you explain this one?

Yesterday, there was a horse at Turf Paradise (Brown Wrapper in race 8) who was 9/2 when I bet him. He got stuck in the gate at the start and was dead last by a good margin.

Then he hit his stride and passed the field and won for fun.

His odds magically dropped to 8/5.

[completebill]

Many years ago, on the California Fair Circuit, when my son was training in California, I would play some parimutuel "games" to try to influence the pools and the prices. The pools were fairly small at that time.
In particular, I would often have some fairly solid "inside" opinion on a horse about whom I felt strongly. To attempt to maximize my price, I would often make one or more LARGE bets, throughout the pre-race betting period, on another horse that looked like a solid contender and that figured to get solid mutual support in any case.
The theory, which worked well in practice, is that my big early wagering would draw even more than the expected action on the "other" horse, driving down its odds, and enhancing my odds on the horse I actually intended to play
The last step, of course, was late cancellation of my early bets, moving the money to my intended wager at the last moment. At that time, at least, bet cancellations were NOT a problem at the windows.
I don't bet at the track anymore, but I'm sure similar games are still being played

[supercap]

This is why I bet what I handicap! regardless of odds.Why would you let the publics opinion influence your selection? Take Saratoga for example, a great place to handicap for the mere fact that it is more tourists than horseplayers, they see a 2 to 1 shot and go crazy just because they dont know any better meanwhile your 4 to 1 shot slowly rises to 8. My selection is never changed by the odd board.

[cj]

Originally Posted by supercap

This is why I bet what I handicap! regardless of odds.Why would you let the publics opinion influence your selection? Take Saratoga for example, a great place to handicap for the mere fact that it is more tourists than horseplayers, they see a 2 to 1 shot and go crazy just because they dont know any better meanwhile your 4 to 1 shot slowly rises to 8. My selection is never changed by the odd board.

If you are betting without regards to odds, I'll take your action...all of it.

[dartman51]

Originally Posted by cj

If you are betting without regards to odds, I'll take your action...all of it.

Yeah...no kidding. The name of the game is VALUE. IMHO a horse going off @ 1/5, or 4/5 offers NO value no matter what I think of the horse. As they say, "anything can happen in a horse race.......and usually does." It's all about VALUE.

[lamboguy]

the thing that gets me these days is that i watch betfair, i see they have more money bet on their system than what makes the track parimutual pools.

do you think if there was some integrety to the wagering pools the handles would go up? i say they would easily.

[takeout]

Originally Posted by cj

There is simply no way this should be allowed. Anything in racing that is going to even give the hint of impropriety should be illegal.

Agree totally, and the list of stuff that needs attention is a very long one.