The $12M Pegasus World Cup Thread

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

Jay Privman (@DRFPrivman) tweeted at 3:24 PM on Thu, Jan 26, 2017:
Baffert showed me Arrogate has 3/4 right hind shoe, preventing small abscess on inside 1/4 from becoming 1/4 crack. He said, "No excuses."
(https://twitter.com/DRFPrivman/statu...616482304?s=09)

Baffort today in an XBTV interview when asked about this tweet, said that it is not an abscess, he put's 3/4 shoes on a lot of his horses to even them out. Take it for what it's worth. Horse looks great in gallops.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Wiley

Baffort today in an XBTV interview when asked about this tweet, said that it is not an abscess, he put's 3/4 shoes on a lot of his horses to even them out. Take it for what it's worth. Horse looks great in gallops.

Why would missing a half of one side of a shoe "even him out"?

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Why would missing a half of one side of a shoe "even him out"?

Not sure what he means, have to ask Baffort or maybe a horseman around here. That's how I heard it.

He just made it sound like it is not a big issue and he does the same thing with some of his other horses.

[ribjig]

Two races within one race?

Two horses vying for win $$.
Ten horses vying for show $$.

Trainers+Jockeys of latter strategizing
ONLY about how to beat nine other horses...

Oppositional evidence??!!

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Why would missing a half of one side of a shoe "even him out"?

I think a three quarter shoe is symmetric, just not as long as a regular shoe. Usually they're used to protect the heel area, I believe.

Mule

[PhantomOnTour]

My apologies if this has been asked and answered already, but how does this race get a Gr1 rating in it's first year of existence?
My apologies again for my ignorance on this, but has any race been given Gr1 status in it's initial running?

[Doza]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

My apologies if this has been asked and answered already, but how does this race get a Gr1 rating in it's first year of existence?
My apologies again for my ignorance on this, but has any race been given Gr1 status in it's initial running?

I believe the race is the Donn Handicap, just being renamed this year.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Kudos to Frank Stronach.

For all the shit he took on here while this race was proposed and being put together, it turns out this is the most exciting thing to ever happen in January in horse racing in like...forever...

Forget the betting part...I can't remember the last time I looked forward this much to a race that wasn't a Triple Crown or BC race...going back at least a decade+.

+1

[Vinnie]

I know that this is going to come off as totally absurd or outrageous as I fully realize that CC and Arrogate are quite frankly the 2 best dirt horses in the world right now. However, is there any possibility in anyone's estimation that coming from out of the #12 hole (CC) and Arrogate from the #1. What if CC got off a step or two slow and Arrogate were to get pinned or delayed for a moment or two (kind of boxed in) at the start. Is there any possibility in anyone else's prism of thinking that say maybe a horse such as Noble Bird would have any possibility in getting away and possibly wiring the field? He has shown that he can have excellent early speed and on several of the items that I look at he is capable of exceptional early speed? Could he be dangerous if placed in such a scenario? I would just like to hear some folks opinions regarding this kind of possibility/scenario.

[VeryOldMan]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

I know that this is going to come off as totally absurd or outrageous as I fully realize that CC and Arrogate are quite frankly the 2 best dirt horses in the world right now. However, is there any possibility in anyone's estimation that coming from out of the #12 hole (CC) and Arrogate from the #1. What if CC got off a step or two slow and Arrogate were to get pinned or delayed for a moment or two (kind of boxed in) at the start. Is there any possibility in anyone else's prism of thinking that say maybe a horse such as Noble Bird would have any possibility in getting away and possibly wiring the field? He has shown that he can have excellent early speed and on several of the items that I look at he is capable of exceptional early speed? Could he be dangerous if placed in such a scenario? I would just like to hear some folks opinions regarding this kind of possibility/scenario.

Thanks for putting this out there. I'm most likely to watch this race as a fan because I have no edge as a bettor - the race gets a lot more interesting from a betting perspective if the two seemingly obvious top picks get knocked out in some manner. And what is that scenario? How to play it?

[Vinnie]

Thank you for commenting. I know that War Envoy is capable of a fast first fraction. But, E1 and E2 combined, a scenario that I could possibly see is Noble Bird being in the clear, although it will in all likelihood not occur as quick and as athletic as CC happens to be. I tell you though, the outside posts in a 9 furlong event really concerns me at Gulfstream Park. It should be a very interesting event to watch, that is for sure.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Kudos to Frank Stronach.

For all the shit he took on here while this race was proposed and being put together, it turns out this is the most exciting thing to ever happen in January in horse racing in like...forever...

Forget the betting part...I can't remember the last time I looked forward this much to a race that wasn't a Triple Crown or BC race...going back at least a decade+.

As a horseplayer it's nearly impossible to give kudos to Stronach for anything he's ever done. As a fan, I love this race.

[letswastemoney]

Noble Bird will know high-class horses in Arrogate and California Chrome are right behind him. It's hard to imagine he won't fold by the far turn.

[Vinnie]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Noble Bird will know high-class horses in Arrogate and California Chrome are right behind him. It's hard to imagine he won't fold by the far turn.

A very good point! I just think it would be crazy if this is the way that it ended up working out. I know that Arrogate and CC are simply head and shoulders above anyone else that you could put out there with them right now from literally anywhere on the globe, but, I imagine it is nothing but doing some kind of crazy wishful thinking on my part in the feeble attempt at doing a little value hunting on the end of a P4... Yeah Right....Man, it would help it pay a lot better though, wouldn't it??!

[Cratos]

During my time, handicapping and wagering on horse races, one of my top trainers would be D. Wayne Lukas.

What does Lukas have to do with the 2017 PWC when he doesn’t have a horse entered?

A lot because two of his former assistant trainers, Bob Baffert, and Todd Pletcher who have successfully followed him cast a big “shadow” of their own.

Both have an entry in the 2017 Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park. Baffert will send out Arrogate the 2016 3yo champion and Pletcher will counter with Keen Ice and Neolithic; with Keen Ice being the stronger of the two.

However, there is a “Mount Everest” that Baffert’s horse or either of Pletcher’s charges must get around to cross the finish line first in the PWC and it comes in the form of California Chrome the 2-time HOTY (2014 and 2016) and a formidable contender.

And from the Lukas protégés, the horse that should be the “force” to be reckoned with is Arrogate given his 1-1/8M time of 1:47.26 in the 2016 Travers with an environmental impact (wind, air, surface, and turn) of 1.27 seconds which gave him an adjusted time of 1:45.99 for the 1-1/8M on that day at Saratoga.

Also, in the BC Classic, Arrogate’s clocked the 1-1/8M in 1:48.05 which when adjusted would have been 1:46.47.

Conversely, California Chrome’s actual BCC time at 1-1/8M was 1:47.99 and adjusted to 1:46.71 seconds.

Therefore, what is the weight that tips the scale in either horse’s favor? In my opinion and if both horses are healthy and in good physical condition the track turn size at Gulfstream will favor Arrogate. At Gulfstream, Arrogate, a big horse (larger in size than Chrome) will inherit a turn size of over 1700 feet or over 400 feet more than Santa Anita.

If Arrogate gains something from turn size, California Chrome will gain from recent racing where he will be coming into the Pegasus with 42 days since his last race compared to Arrogate’s 84 days since his last race.

Although the BCC 1-1/8M suggests about a .24 second time difference between the two horses at the 1-1/8M distance favoring Arrogate; the PWC starting post position 1 have given Arrogate an additional slight benefit in distance to the first turn.

At Gulfstream, the distance from the start in post position 1 to the first turn is 344 feet and in post position 12 where California Chrome will start the vector distance is about 351 feet or an impact of .13 seconds.

Therefore, I see the top 4 finishers in the PWC as:

Arrogate
Keen Ice
California Chrome
Shaman Ghost