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05-19-2015, 12:47 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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The Problem with Morning Lines
All these great minds producing morning lines are just players that over love their numbers, like a parent with their children. Let's look at it another way. Say you needed a new furnace and a salesman total you that his furnaces are a great value, better than most. The only problem is that more than 60% of the time they don't work. In our case, pick the winner. Would you buy the furnace? We seem to buy these morning lines that rarely ever hit 40% winners. Can anyone justify a morning line with being wrong so much? It's non-sense.
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"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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05-19-2015, 12:54 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
All these great minds producing morning lines are just players that over love their numbers, like a parent with their children. Let's look at it another way. Say you needed a new furnace and a salesman total you that his furnaces are a great value, better than most. The only problem is that more than 60% of the time they don't work. In our case, pick the winner. Would you buy the furnace? We seem to buy these morning lines that rarely ever hit 40% winners. Can anyone justify a morning line with being wrong so much? It's non-sense.
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So...a morning line must pick at least 40% winners before you would acknowledge the skill of the line-maker?
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Live to play another day.
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05-19-2015, 12:54 PM
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#3
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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The problem with the Morning Line is that it doesn't pan out that way in the afternoon.
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Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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05-19-2015, 12:57 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
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A morning line isn't supposed to "pick winners", Al...it's supposed to predict the opinion of the betting public.
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Live to play another day.
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05-19-2015, 12:59 PM
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#5
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,910
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As a final odds predictor, statistics would disagree with your supposition, Al.
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05-19-2015, 01:29 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
So...a morning line must pick at least 40% winners before you would acknowledge the skill of the line-maker?
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No. What we can say is that a horse is a contender, pretender, or a maybe either way. Morning lines being scientific is absurd. And nobody gets 40% over the long run.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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05-19-2015, 01:34 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
As a final odds predictor, statistics would disagree with your supposition, Al.
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I have seen the correlation. It is amazing that the numbers nearly average out. But that's average out, not today's race which is most likely going to be wrong.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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05-19-2015, 01:39 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF
The problem with the Morning Line is that it doesn't pan out that way in the afternoon.
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Right!
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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05-19-2015, 03:28 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 6,128
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Sounds like you're not actually talking about morning lines, but betting odds lines (made by bettors or software)? *The* morning line is that thing published in the program/DRF that gives an estimation of what the betting is likely to be. It is not designed to pick winners, or even put the "best horse" on top, although of course it only makes sense that there would be a strong correlation in most races. There is only one per race, and it comes from the designated morning line maker for the track (or Equibase, or whoever they work for these days)...
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05-19-2015, 04:15 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by GameTheory
Sounds like you're not actually talking about morning lines, but betting odds lines (made by bettors or software)? *The* morning line is that thing published in the program/DRF that gives an estimation of what the betting is likely to be. It is not designed to pick winners, or even put the "best horse" on top, although of course it only makes sense that there would be a strong correlation in most races. There is only one per race, and it comes from the designated morning line maker for the track (or Equibase, or whoever they work for these days)...
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I have all the respect for those who make the morning lines. And I'll guess that most modern day software does a fine job too. But they are all of little or no value when it comes time to wager. For example, most odds will go up if the barn doesn't plan to run their horse. This is not value.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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05-19-2015, 04:36 PM
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#11
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Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Virginia
Posts: 860
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If the morning line handicapper doesn't pick 30% winners does he lose his job? The public picks 30% winners-right?
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05-19-2015, 04:56 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Flysofree
If the morning line handicapper doesn't pick 30% winners does he lose his job? The public picks 30% winners-right?
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I would guess that a lot of them would lose their job.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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05-19-2015, 05:01 PM
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#13
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
A morning line isn't supposed to "pick winners", Al...it's supposed to predict the opinion of the betting public.
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This ML would have probably been a lot closer at predicting the opinion of the public if they used the correct percentages.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=122751
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05-19-2015, 05:16 PM
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#14
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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The problem with morning lines is people read them and assign the figures some sort of value in their handicapping and betting methodology.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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05-19-2015, 06:20 PM
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#15
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Scum Bum!
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 1,889
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
A morning line isn't supposed to "pick winners", Al...it's supposed to predict the opinion of the betting public.
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Couple years back out at Keeneland, over heard this couple who couldn't believe the price on a horse when he got up. The lady said "i cant believe that horse won! He's 20-1 in the program."
Couldnt resist and said "Ma'am, obviously somebody forgot to tell the horse.."
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