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05-08-2015, 11:17 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Chasing the chalk @BEL!!!
So far, it's been a chalk fest at Belmont which really surprises me I thought win prices would have been bigger to start the season.
Prices paying under $8 have dominated the wins on both Turf and Dirt surfaces. Out of 74 win prices there were 44 that paid under $8 which is a rate of 59.4%.
All / 5 ( represents Morning Line Odds ending with 5 i.e. 2/5, 3/5, ,,,etc.)
In particular the 2/1 listing in the Morning Line has won at a rate of exactly 50% and if all you did was play the 2/1 to win in Turf or Dirt races it would have cost you $48 and you would have won $62.90 which is a 31% return on your money
This is the same thing that happened at Aqueduct during the last month of the season in April!!
I think the house is setting everyone up for a big beat down coming up very soon I can't see Belmont continuing to pay win prices under $8 at a rate of close to 60%.
Just today the Morning Line 2/1's went 4 for 4 a $2 wager to win on all 4 cost you $8 and you would have won $19.30 which is a 141% return on your money!!
Let's see what these do tomorrow they are 2/1 in the Morning Line:
Race 1
#6 Hot House Rose
Race 3
#1 Wolf Man Rocket
Race 7
#7 Discreet Marq
Let's see what happens!!!
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05-09-2015, 12:40 AM
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#2
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Fool's Gold.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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05-09-2015, 07:15 AM
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#3
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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I always bet Irad Ortiz Jr in race 5 and 6 at Belmont just as long as he's not on the favorite. He came in with some bombs more often than not in these races since he was an apprentice.
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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05-09-2015, 10:36 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Goren
Fool's Gold.
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Since Wednesday at Belmont, 20 of the last 27 races have had win prices paying less than $8 which is a rate of 74%.
All / 5 ( represents Morning Line Odds ending with 5 i.e. 2/5, 3/5, ,,,etc.)
I didn't see that yesterday, so it looks like it will be a blood bath for chalk players today at Belmont.
I can't see the house continuing to pay out win prices less than $8 at a rate of 74%.
However, if there are at least 2 winners from these 3 today
Race 1
#6 Hot House Rose
Race 3
#1 Wolf Man Rocket
Race 7
#7 Discreet Marq
I will continue to keep an eye on the Morning Line 2/1's tomorrow.
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05-09-2015, 12:05 PM
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#5
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF
I always bet Irad Ortiz Jr in race 5 and 6 at Belmont just as long as he's not on the favorite. He came in with some bombs more often than not in these races since he was an apprentice.
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I never 'always'. That word has been banned from my handicapping vocabulary for 15 years.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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05-09-2015, 12:46 PM
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#6
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Random Numbers Generator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets or food
Posts: 2,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by therussmeister
I never 'always'. That word has been banned from my handicapping vocabulary for 15 years.
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As in "always verify what you see and read?"
__________________
Where will you be when diarrhea strikes?
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05-09-2015, 03:04 PM
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#7
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF
As in "always verify what you see and read?"
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I don't understand what you mean. Please give an example.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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05-10-2015, 12:27 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Goren
Fool's Gold.
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I thought for sure the chalk players would have taken a beating at Belmont on Saturday.
However, there were 6 prices that paid less than $8 on Saturday so the chalkoholics got their way!!!
Interesting to note the Morning Line 2/1's had 2 wins in 3 attempts on Saturday as #6 Hot House Rose and #7 Discreet Marq both won their respective races.
A $2 wager to win on all 3 would have cost you $6 giving you a profit of $7.30 which is a 121% return on your money.
Since Wednesday the Morning Line 2/1's have now won 7 of their last 9 attempts a $2 wager to win on all 9 would have cost you $18 and you would have won $17.80 which is a 98% return on your money!!!
All / 5 ( represents Morning Line Odds ending with 5 i.e. 2/5, 3/5, ,,,etc.)
I don't know what the public handicapper is doing but he/she is on a roll there is only 1 listing at 2/1 in the Morning Line on Sunday:
Race 6
#4 Munasara
I guess sometimes you just have to take what they give you until they stop giving it to you!!!
Let's see what happens!!
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05-10-2015, 09:03 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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The "house" makes the same amount of money no matter what the horses pay, unless there is a minus pool. The takeout is the same in every race. Low-payoff horses may create more churn and be slightly better than longshots to the bottom line, but otherwise the track doesn't care what the horses pay.
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05-10-2015, 10:19 AM
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#10
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
The "house" makes the same amount of money no matter what the horses pay, unless there is a minus pool. The takeout is the same in every race. Low-payoff horses may create more churn and be slightly better than longshots to the bottom line, but otherwise the track doesn't care what the horses pay.
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There is also more breakage with a short priced horse.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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05-10-2015, 11:15 AM
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#11
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Goren
There is also more breakage with a short priced horse.
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Perhaps not in New York. They break to the nickel on odds less than 4/1.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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05-11-2015, 09:18 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
The "house" makes the same amount of money no matter what the horses pay, unless there is a minus pool. The takeout is the same in every race. Low-payoff horses may create more churn and be slightly better than longshots to the bottom line, but otherwise the track doesn't care what the horses pay.
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Thanks Cast,
I thought there was some tie to the win payouts and what the track makes in terms of a profit.
Now, in looking at the data, it makes perfect sense that you can have a week like last week where 30 out of 46 win prices paid less than $8 which is a rate of 65%.
They don't care since their take out is the same.
Last edited by TheOracle; 05-11-2015 at 09:20 PM.
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05-11-2015, 09:22 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Since Wednesday of last week the Morning Line 2/1's have won 8 of their last 10 attempts as #4 Munasara came through and won in the 6th race yesterday at Belmont.
So far, if you wagered $2 to win on the Morning Line 2/1's it would have cost you $20 and you would have won $41.70 which is a 108% return on your money!!!
All / 5 ( represents Morning Line Odds ending with 5 i.e. 2/5, 3/5, ,,,etc.)
For some reason the public handicapper's choice at 2/1 won 80% of the time last week. I have never seen anyone hit 8 out of 10 singles!!
Let's see if the public handicapper can keep it going next week whatever he/she is doing it's working and it's great that the 2/1's are sometimes beating other Morning Line favorites with lower intial odds!!
I will be keeping a close eye on the Morning Line 2/1's next week!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 05-11-2015 at 09:25 PM.
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05-12-2015, 09:03 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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#1 Golden Gem is 2/1 in the Morning Line tomorrow at Belmont:
Race 7
#1 Golden Gem
Let's see if the public handicapper can make it to 9 out of 11 wins for the 2/1 Morning Line.
Let's see what happens!!!
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05-14-2015, 08:57 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Well the Morning Line 2/1's came back down to earth over the last 2 racing days at Belmont as they have only had 1 winner in the last 6 attempts.
#1 Golden Gem and #1 Gasparilla Inn both lost their respective races on Sunday.
The only winner in the past 2 racing days was in the 1st race today #2 Toohottoevenspeak.
It was a pretty interesting trend while it lasted.
On to the next streak!!!
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