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Old 10-11-2018, 01:08 PM   #61
chiguy
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This feels like a great BC Classic to keep your mind as open as possible and make your decisions after you know the full field and post positions.

This.
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Old 10-11-2018, 02:37 PM   #62
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Is there a new race that they are introducing for the Breeders Cup?

Juvy turf sprint.


Allan
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Old 10-12-2018, 10:41 AM   #63
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BC Past Performances

BRIS has both PPs and data file up today.
You have to change the calendar on top to NOV and they are listed under the dates - 11/2-11/3.

DRF PPS for Classic and Turf are up at breederscup.com.

Anyone seen the DRF Advance hard copy on newsstands yet?
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Old 10-12-2018, 02:45 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
Juvy turf sprint.
Allan
I must've missed the groundswell of a grassroots effort to get this one in the lineup.
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Old 10-12-2018, 04:38 PM   #65
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I must've missed the groundswell of a grassroots effort to get this one in the lineup.
My mother calls 5 furlongs on the turf the new "American classic distance". She jokingly predicts that in 25 years, the Breeders' Cup Classic will be run at that distance.
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Old 10-12-2018, 07:56 PM   #66
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My mother calls 5 furlongs on the turf the new "American classic distance". She jokingly predicts that in 25 years, the Breeders' Cup Classic will be run at that distance.
Breeders cup in 25 years? She's very optimistic.
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Old 10-13-2018, 09:52 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Mendy's best figure in Dubai was bias aided.

He seems to be improving, but imo it will be a tough task to go from where he is now to setting or stalking the pace in a bigger tougher field than the Gold Cup and being able to keep going when better closers than Discreet Lover are coming at him late. Maybe if they can get him to relax further off it and finish he'd do better, but I don't think I like him even though I agree he's moving forward.
Agreed that his Dubai figure may have been rail bias aided but so may have some of the figures of the other contenders. The magnitude of his victory and the huge figure indicate there may have been more than a bias involved so I wouldn't totally disregard it off hand.
I doubt he will have to contend with as fierce a pace as in the JCGC and his TFUS figure was just as good as the winner and even cj has agreed that at 10 furlongs his figures, even when pace adjusted underrate the best performances, so I consider his JCGC race as good as a win against top competition. At the very least it sets him up perfectly for a big BC Classic.
I agree that he must relax and lay off the pace, if it's hot, however the defection of Diversity, whose suicidal early pace was both horses' undoing in the JCGC, improve his chances tremendously.
Of course, as I've said, he is not my pick yet as I want to take another long hard look at some of the other contenders, particularly Mind Your Biscuits and Accelerate. However, I think Mendy is flying a bit under the radar and being written off a bit too quickly by many and will likely outrun his odds.
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Old 10-13-2018, 09:53 AM   #68
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I can't stand him! What a phony, theatrical major this caller is! I have to turn down the audio each time I hear a replay of NYRA stake races.

Can NYRA fire this guy...it's bad enough they card like 10, five-horse-field races each day, one has to listen to this screeching idiot. Hi Larry!

Is John Lies or Kurt Becker available? I would settle for Vic.

have to agree... turn him down
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Old 10-13-2018, 03:43 PM   #69
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I used to do the analysis on the Juvenile Filly Turf for Horseplayer Magazine, and I was pretty accurate. The year that Lady Eli won (2014) I had a $20 P4. I singled both her and Goldencents on all my tickets. The other races in the sequence I didn't have to go very deep.
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Old 10-13-2018, 04:11 PM   #70
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You can quote this back at me when he wins, but I am extremely skeptical of Mendelssohn. I think he's a money burner.
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Old 10-13-2018, 11:12 PM   #71
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You can quote this back at me when he wins, but I am extremely skeptical of Mendelssohn. I think he's a money burner.
I agree, at least as far as dirt starts go. He's lost ground in the stretch in each of his last 3 starts. Can't see him turning it around.

Out of the JC Gold Cup, Thunder Snow rates more of a chance and will be making his 3rd start off a layoff. Figures to return to his pace setting/pressing style which should help his cause.
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Old 10-14-2018, 03:52 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
You can quote this back at me when he wins, but I am extremely skeptical of Mendelssohn. I think he's a money burner.
Well, he won't be cheap, that's for sure. As someone here already mentioned, he’s looking like the lone speed; no way he’ll be flying under the radar and no way he’ll be double digits. Hard to see him NOT hanging on for a piece, depending on who shows up and post position. Draw a line through his derby and he’s hit the board in all of his races this year with two firsts.
As a side note, NBC played the beginning of Symphony No. 4 (Italian Symphony), as his walk-up music last time, which showed a little ingenuity since his wedding March is the most popular and recognizable. However, I’m partial to the String Octet in E flat major, his Opus 20 — IMO the finest chamber music ever composed.
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Old 10-15-2018, 06:29 PM   #73
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Early attempt at BCC projected field, odds

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...field_odds_123

Accelerate, 3-1
West Coast, 6-1
McKinzie, 6-1
Catholic Boy, 7-1
Yoshida, 9-1
Mendelssohn, 10-1
Thunder Snow, 13-1
Mind Your Biscuits, 15-1
Gunnevera, 28-1
Pavel, 31-1
Bravazo, 34-1
Discreet Lover, 52-1
Axelrod, 66-1
Seeking the Soul, 78-1
Toast of New York, 69-1


Tom: Doesn’t look like West Coast is going to be overlooked, my McKinzie either. The Baffert factor.

Based on these, I like Mendelssohn & Mind Your Biscuits.
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Old 10-15-2018, 07:24 PM   #74
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I agree, at least as far as dirt starts go. He's lost ground in the stretch in each of his last 3 starts. Can't see him turning it around.

Out of the JC Gold Cup, Thunder Snow rates more of a chance and will be making his 3rd start off a layoff. Figures to return to his pace setting/pressing style which should help his cause.
His improving figures and performances indicate he is turning it around. It would have taken Secretariat to not lose ground in the JCGC after attending that toxic pace. The winner, Discreet Lover, benefited even more from the pace by laying even further off it.You can't just look at the stretch run in a vacuum in isolation of what preceded it. The further you are from a nuclear blast, the better your chances of surviving it.
Put a line through Mendelssohn's Derby non-race and he is also on his 3rd race off the lay-off.

The reason Thunder Snow ran as well as he did in the JVGC was that he lay back off that pace and closed on horses that had run killer sprint fractions. Had he played the setter/presser role he would have tired badly - much worse than Mendy or Diversify. Just look at the pace analysis. Having said that, I like his chances too. He showed he could adapt to whatever pace he was facing and, like Mendy, is cycling up to a top figure.

Last edited by bobphilo; 10-15-2018 at 07:31 PM.
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Old 10-15-2018, 07:48 PM   #75
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Edit: My previous post was unclear as to what horses I was sometimes referring to. The correct post should have read:

His improving figures and performances indicate he is turning it around. It would have taken Secretariat to not lose ground in the JCGC after attending that toxic pace. You can't just look at the stretch run in a vacuum in isolation of what preceded it. The further you are from a nuclear blast, the better your chances of surviving it.
Put a line through Mendelssohn's Derby non-race and he is also on his 3rd race off the lay-off.

The reason Thunder Snow ran as well as he did in the JVGC was that he lay back off that pace and closed on horses that had run killer sprint fractions. Had he played the setter/presser role he would have tired badly - much worse than Mendy or Diversify. Just look at the pace analysis. The winner, Discreet Lover, benefited even more from the pace by laying even further off it. Having said that, I like TS's chances too. He showed he could adapt to whatever pace he was facing and, like Mendy, is cycling up to a top figure.

Last edited by bobphilo; 10-15-2018 at 07:52 PM.
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