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10-07-2018, 06:30 PM
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#16
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
These are the only two horses I am going to analyze because they are the only ones projected to be under 7/2. Please understand that our projected odds are way more accurate than the typical ML. (Not as good as the whales, but pretty good.)
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So you are projecting the odds? I like.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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10-07-2018, 06:31 PM
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#17
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,912
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
So you are projecting the odds? I like.
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See the post right below this one ^^^ with a real race.
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10-07-2018, 06:37 PM
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#18
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
Are you sure your success with this does not have more to do with how you determine what the public will do.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
This was the next race that came up on the day I was handicapping. (Sept 9)
In the upper section, marked in yellow, are the two horses that projected to be <3.49/1. (My definition of low odds.)
A logical question would be, "How do I handicap?"
The answer is that the system created 5 "objects" for me, each pushing the winners to the top but with slightly different sorts.
The handicapping object I selected was the one that most agreed with the object that was used to project the odds.
The two hit rates, 38% and 30.5% respectively, when multiplied by the payoffs projected by the odds, resulted in $nets of $1.73 and $1.78 respectively, for the two horses.
If either had been $1.90 or higher, they would have been "Play Against." As it is, they are just "close" to "BetAg."
We're hoping that with more effort we'll be able to expand downward a little more with some added conditions in the future, but right now we're sticking with the extremes. Down below I have show the running lines of the two horses in question. Both ran what I would call "dead races."
Notice the final odds off to the right.
The race ran 6-2, not that it matters.
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Awesome
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 10-07-2018 at 06:38 PM.
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10-07-2018, 06:58 PM
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#19
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,912
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Quote:
Are you sure your success with this does not have more to do with how you determine what the public will do.
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Absolutely it is directly connected!
But not connected by the tote board. See, the tote board has become a pretty worthless tool, at least in the conventional sense of make-a-line-and-bet-into-it.
Remember that the whales are "reactive." That is, they assess the horses, and look at the current tote board alongside their projection of what the final tote will look like.
Then they react.
And for them, it is working... because of their rebates.
For us, not so much.
I'm going to explain some more but this is the part that generally makes my head hurt. Don't be surprised if it does the same for you.
The connections is in how the public USUALLY bets horses in a FIELD LIKE THIS.
But there is a twist.
See, I'm a really good handicapper. If I show a horse to be $2.40 or so... that is, a +20% advantage... what makes me so much smarter than the PUBLIC?
What is it that I see that is so out of line with what the public sees?
Conversely, if I make a horse $1.10... a -45% loser, again, what makes me so right?
So, what I am really doing is devaluing my own opinion, and saying that the PUBLIC's way of betting these horses in the long run should be able to defeat me.
Understand that it didn't used to be this way. Can I out-perform the general public? Sure.
In fact, several years ago I actually built a video seminar called The Renegade Handicapper. This was actually my approach at the time.
I would make my artificial line using the Artificial ML object, and then bet into it with the real tote board. And it worked. It absolutely did.
The problem is that today it is no longer a matter of outperforming the public. The challenge is to outperform the WHALES who have become expert at outperforming the public.
Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 10-07-2018 at 06:59 PM.
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10-07-2018, 09:57 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,561
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My thinking on this topic goes something like this:
My experience in the game tells me that the "standout" horses, who don't receive the betting action that they logically should, are very unlikely to win the race. We call this the "dead-on-the-board" phenomenon...and it's a very real occurrence, IMO. Consequently...I am forced to assume that the OPPOSITE occurrence is real, as well. When a nondescript horse, who should logically receive little betting support, is getting hammered on the board...then I harbor dark suspicions that the same sinister forces which have introduced the "dead-on-the-board" phenomenon to us, are at work yet again. If I consider myself a sucker for betting on the "dead-on-the-board" horses...then I am also a sucker if I ignore the horses that get hammered on the board when their credentials don't warrant the betting support.
I am a huge X-Files fan...and I got an idea some years ago as I was watching agent Scully talking into a mini-recorder while performing an autopsy. And...I have since been carrying a mini-recorder with me wherever I bet the horses, where I dictate to myself the betting peculiarities that I notice on the tote-board during the day's events...hoping to uncover any identifiable "patterns" which could hopefully make this troublesome topic a little easier for me to comprehend. The results that I have received so far have been positive enough to warrant continuing with this endeavor...even though it adds substantially to my workload. The only negative that I have noticed while doing this is that, since I do all of my wagering around other people, I will occasionally catch those around me giving me curious glances, while probably thinking that the game has relegated me to the level of mental infirmity where I am now carrying on entire conversations with myself. But then I remind myself that I didn't become a horseplayer so I could elevate my "social standing" among the other gamblers. I just want to WIN.
Last edited by thaskalos; 10-07-2018 at 10:07 PM.
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10-07-2018, 10:47 PM
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#21
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,912
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
My thinking on this topic goes something like this:
My experience in the game tells me that the "standout" horses, who don't receive the betting action that they logically should, are very unlikely to win the race. We call this the "dead-on-the-board" phenomenon...and it's a very real occurrence, IMO. Consequently...I am forced to assume that the OPPOSITE occurrence is real, as well. When a nondescript horse, who should logically receive little betting support, is getting hammered on the board...then I harbor dark suspicions that the same sinister forces which have introduced the "dead-on-the-board" phenomenon to us, are at work yet again. If I consider myself a sucker for betting on the "dead-on-the-board" horses...then I am also a sucker if I ignore the horses that get hammered on the board when their credentials don't warrant the betting support.
I am a huge X-Files fan...and I got an idea some years ago as I was watching agent Scully talking into a mini-recorder while performing an autopsy. And...I have since been carrying a mini-recorder with me wherever I bet the horses, where I dictate to myself the betting peculiarities that I notice on the tote-board during the day's events...hoping to uncover any identifiable "patterns" which could hopefully make this troublesome topic a little easier for me to comprehend. The results that I have received so far have been positive enough to warrant continuing with this endeavor...even though it adds substantially to my workload. The only negative that I have noticed while doing this is that, since I do all of my wagering around other people, I will occasionally catch those around me giving me curious glances, while probably thinking that the game has relegated me to the level of mental infirmity where I am now carrying on entire conversations with myself. But then I remind myself that I didn't become a horseplayer so I could elevate my "social standing" among the other gamblers. I just want to WIN.
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That's one of the best posts I've ever seen on the current state of racing and the handicapper.
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10-08-2018, 12:55 AM
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#22
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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The tote may be even harder to fathom than the form in many cases
You have no idea who is betting and why. What stories have been told, what scams have been engineered.
There is an infinite amount of bad money in the pool , which can easily confuse you into thinking it''s smart. Until they run the race of course.
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10-08-2018, 01:37 AM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
My thinking on this topic goes something like this:
My experience in the game tells me that the "standout" horses, who don't receive the betting action that they logically should, are very unlikely to win the race. We call this the "dead-on-the-board" phenomenon...and it's a very real occurrence, IMO. Consequently...I am forced to assume that the OPPOSITE occurrence is real, as well. When a nondescript horse, who should logically receive little betting support, is getting hammered on the board...then I harbor dark suspicions that the same sinister forces which have introduced the "dead-on-the-board" phenomenon to us, are at work yet again. If I consider myself a sucker for betting on the "dead-on-the-board" horses...then I am also a sucker if I ignore the horses that get hammered on the board when their credentials don't warrant the betting support.
I am a huge X-Files fan...and I got an idea some years ago as I was watching agent Scully talking into a mini-recorder while performing an autopsy. And...I have since been carrying a mini-recorder with me wherever I bet the horses, where I dictate to myself the betting peculiarities that I notice on the tote-board during the day's events...hoping to uncover any identifiable "patterns" which could hopefully make this troublesome topic a little easier for me to comprehend. The results that I have received so far have been positive enough to warrant continuing with this endeavor...even though it adds substantially to my workload. The only negative that I have noticed while doing this is that, since I do all of my wagering around other people, I will occasionally catch those around me giving me curious glances, while probably thinking that the game has relegated me to the level of mental infirmity where I am now carrying on entire conversations with myself. But then I remind myself that I didn't become a horseplayer so I could elevate my "social standing" among the other gamblers. I just want to WIN.
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When I look in a mirror.
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10-08-2018, 08:16 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
The tote may be even harder to fathom than the form in many cases
You have no idea who is betting and why. What stories have been told, what scams have been engineered.
There is an infinite amount of bad money in the pool , which can easily confuse you into thinking it''s smart. Until they run the race of course.
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You make a good point. This method first assumes that late money is smart money. It then adds a further degree of uncertainty by trying to predict what this alleged smart money will be. At best it is no better than just betting late money but even less effective since it depends on predictions of this late money.
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10-08-2018, 08:31 AM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
You make a good point. This method first assumes that late money is smart money. It then adds a further degree of uncertainty by trying to predict what this alleged smart money will be. At best it is no better than just betting late money but even less effective since it depends on predictions of this late money.
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The whale/smart money is being bet in the last minute before the race starts and isn't fully reflected in the pools when we're wagering, so there's no way to "just bet the late money" that doesn't involve predicting it.
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10-08-2018, 08:35 AM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
The tote may be even harder to fathom than the form in many cases
You have no idea who is betting and why. What stories have been told, what scams have been engineered.
There is an infinite amount of bad money in the pool , which can easily confuse you into thinking it''s smart. Until they run the race of course.
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I think this is pretty much the opposite of what Dave is saying, and just not what wagering on horses in 2018 is like. Where is all of this alleged dumb money out there, all these huge overlays? Smart money looks pretty smart to me these days, and the "dumb" money has been playing the lottery or slot machines for many years now.
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10-08-2018, 01:32 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
The whale/smart money is being bet in the last minute before the race starts and isn't fully reflected in the pools when we're wagering, so there's no way to "just bet the late money" that doesn't involve predicting it.
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True, the only way to know very late money is predicting it, but I'm not so sure that this late money is always so smart just because what we have seen appears to be true in a few high profile races. I've also seen cases where it wasn't so smart. Even if so, in addition we then must accurately predict what we think the odds should be and what the public will bet. Too few cases from disinterested 3rd parties to support this theory works at this point.
In addition, the very difficult process of predicting what the odds should be would be profitable on its own but could turn unprofitable if multiplied by the added difficulty of accurately predicting what the public will bet.
Last edited by bobphilo; 10-08-2018 at 01:43 PM.
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10-08-2018, 01:58 PM
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#28
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,912
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
True, the only way to know very late money is predicting it, but I'm not so sure that this late money is always so smart just because what we have seen appears to be true in a few high profile races. I've also seen cases where it wasn't so smart. Even if so, in addition we then must accurately predict what we think the odds should be and what the public will bet. Too few cases from disinterested 3rd parties to support this theory works at this point.
In addition, the very difficult process of predicting what the odds should be would be profitable on its own but could turn unprofitable if multiplied by the added difficulty of accurately predicting what the public will bet.
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It appears to me that it is much more likely to be true in the lower class races.
In fact, the high profile races (as you called them) are likely to run much closer to "the best horse wins."
Just my opinion and experience.
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10-08-2018, 02:02 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
I think this is pretty much the opposite of what Dave is saying, and just not what wagering on horses in 2018 is like. Where is all of this alleged dumb money out there, all these huge overlays? Smart money looks pretty smart to me these days, and the "dumb" money has been playing the lottery or slot machines for many years now.
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There is still plenty enough stupidity to go around to be a factor in race betting. There is still plenty of dumb late money.
I any case, we're not talking about huge overlays. This method is designed to detect smart money on low priced horses.
Last edited by bobphilo; 10-08-2018 at 02:03 PM.
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10-08-2018, 02:12 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
It appears to me that it is much more likely to be true in the lower class races.
In fact, the high profile races (as you called them) are likely to run much closer to "the best horse wins."
Just my opinion and experience.
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That's true. I agree these betting coups are more likely to be perpetrated in lower class races. I think this effect of late money was first widely seen in a high class race which was more widely publicized.
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