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Old 08-30-2018, 09:06 PM   #166
dilanesp
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This may be why the Beyer's are shrinking over the years p he has a glass ceiling to prevent the good horses from getting good numbers.

When I handicap a race, I want to know how fast the horse ran, not how fast Andy thinks he should have run.
This sounds great, but the reality is when a result doesn't fit the apparent track speed, you have to estimate one way or the other.
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Old 08-30-2018, 09:22 PM   #167
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The race fit the pattern for the day. As run
Beyer chose to change it to something that doesn't fit the pattern.
This is not an isolated occurrence.
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Old 08-30-2018, 09:25 PM   #168
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This sounds great, but the reality is when a result doesn't fit the apparent track speed, you have to estimate one way or the other.
Which is the job of the figure-user, not the figure-maker.
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Old 08-30-2018, 09:26 PM   #169
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Which is the job of the figure-user, not the figure-maker.
You can always make your own. Beyer publishes how-to guides.
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Old 08-30-2018, 09:38 PM   #170
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I couldn't justify breaking those races apart personally.

I guess we'll have wait and see what the fillies run in their subsequent races to know whether the high numbers they ran in the Personal Ensign are legit.
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Old 08-30-2018, 09:46 PM   #171
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Which is the job of the figure-user, not the figure-maker.
Not exactly. The figure maker's job is to determine how fast the horse ran adjusting for best estimate of track speed (variant) The job of the figure user is to determine how other factors like trip, pace and ground loss contributed to that figure and how these adjusted figures compare when the horses meet again,
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Old 08-30-2018, 09:49 PM   #172
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I guess we'll have wait and see what the fillies run in their subsequent races to know whether the high numbers they ran in the Personal Ensign are legit.
Certainly possible they aren't legit, but the race looked legit to my eyes. Wow Cat in 3rd basically got the same number if you consider she had a poor break and was pretty wide chasing lone speed in her US debut. The 4th finisher matched her figure.

The top 2 in the Travers also basically matched their prior race. I think all the others just didn't show up. Nothing I see watching that race makes me think I underrated the 3 and back finishers.

I tend to go with the clock without overwhelming evidence otherwise.
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Old 08-30-2018, 10:22 PM   #173
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If you just want a "pure" figure of how fast a horse ran with no consideration of track speed than you don't apply a variant. Anytime you include a variant you are depending on the opinion of the one making it. The question is how compelling you find the argument behind what that variant is. If you find that argument convincing you find the figure based on it correct. If you don't, you have to use a different variant and speed figure based on it.
The important part comes when the user interprets the hosen figure to predict how the horses will run in its next race.
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Old 08-30-2018, 10:38 PM   #174
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I wonder if part of the problem with the "context" of these standout races is the system of beaten lengths. Perhaps the simple conversion of 1 length = -2.5 BSF points (or whatever it is) is only accurate over a small range of values (say 0-5 lengths).

In both the Personal Ensign this year and last year's Frontrunner, the decision to alter the BSF was based heavily on the horses running 3rd and 4th who would have earned new lifetime "tops". Well, those horses were 10 lengths back or more. Just as Beyer says the last two horses in the Personal Ensign (that were fried by the pace) were inconsequential, I don't think it's a big leap to say a horse 10 lengths behind the winner (regardless of finish position) was of no consequence either.

Another historical example that was not adjusted was the 1998 Kentucky Cup Classic. In that race, Derby winner Silver Charm and Met Mile winner Wild Rush dead-heated for the win, both earning a 123 BSF. That figure was 5 points higher than Silver Charm ever earned both before and after that race. I believe it was also the same for Wild Rush (he earned a 118 for the Met Mile). No one seemed to bat an eye then. The show horse in that race was the Grade 1-placed Acceptable. He was beaten 17 lengths.

To me, it seems it would make more sense to adjust the figures of the also-rans first and then decide if the horses that actually contended for the win ought to have their numbers adjusted, too.

Even if Wow Cat was assigned a new lifetime top in the Personal Ensign, I don't think many handicappers would have faith that her triple digit Beyer stemming from a double-digit length defeat would be reproducible next time out, unless she was taken a substantial drop in class. But on the other hand, after witnessing the maturity of recent starts like Gun Runner and Accelerate relative to their 3yo performances, I don't think it would be shocking to see either Abel Tasman or Elate repeat their respective efforts this past weekend. One of them is even a possibility for the BC Classic off the race.
I agree with your post, it feels like also rans dictating how two dominant runners performed seems like a poor form of measurement.

I just feel like the figures for stake horses are too slow, so sure when you try to make historical context the figure wouldnt fit. The best filly the past 18 months should be running between 105-110 figures, in they fit historical context to say the 90's and early 2000's. So a 4yo top to a beyer of 113 as stated in the article sure wouldnt seem far fetched.

It is what it is, those were high level performances by the top two, the clock said so, visually it said so, on paper it said it should be. The figure, 105, is historically avg.
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Old 08-31-2018, 04:25 AM   #175
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It is what it is, those were high level performances by the top two, the clock said so, visually it said so, on paper it said it should be. The figure, 105, is historically avg.
On top of all that, Abel Tasman and Elate were making their 3rd and 2nd starts respectively on the year, which is prime time for marked improvement. Abel Tasman already displayed such progression between her 4yo debut on Derby day and the Ogden Phipps. Going back further, she took a couple of starts to peak last year at 3 (even getting drilled 1st time out for Baffert) and her only unplaced effort outside the La Troienne this year was her career debut which was quickly followed up by a maiden victory next time out.

Furthermore, both Abel Tasman (Quality Road) and Elate (Medaglia D'Oro) are two stout mares sired by 2 of the major stamina influences in this country outside of Tapit and Curlin. They should excelling at distances of 9 furlongs or more, not regressing.

The irony is that, on the opposite side of the spectrum (and coast), the recently retired Unique Bella, who despite being by Tapit was clearly showing distance limitations (at least coupled with that running style) in her last two starts, had her last out Beyer artificially bumped up because of a perceived "slowness" to the Del Mar surface--only during two turn races, mind you--on different days other than the day her race took place.

Some of this stuff reminds me of the magic loogie from Seinfeld:

"I'm saying that the Beyer Speed Figure could not have come from the final time...that there had to have been a second Beyer..."
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Old 08-31-2018, 08:53 AM   #176
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On top of all that, Abel Tasman and Elate were making their 3rd and 2nd starts respectively on the year, which is prime time for marked improvement. Abel Tasman already displayed such progression between her 4yo debut on Derby day and the Ogden Phipps. Going back further, she took a couple of starts to peak last year at 3 (even getting drilled 1st time out for Baffert) and her only unplaced effort outside the La Troienne this year was her career debut which was quickly followed up by a maiden victory next time out.

Furthermore, both Abel Tasman (Quality Road) and Elate (Medaglia D'Oro) are two stout mares sired by 2 of the major stamina influences in this country outside of Tapit and Curlin. They should excelling at distances of 9 furlongs or more, not regressing.

The irony is that, on the opposite side of the spectrum (and coast), the recently retired Unique Bella, who despite being by Tapit was clearly showing distance limitations (at least coupled with that running style) in her last two starts, had her last out Beyer artificially bumped up because of a perceived "slowness" to the Del Mar surface--only during two turn races, mind you--on different days other than the day her race took place.

Some of this stuff reminds me of the magic loogie from Seinfeld:

"I'm saying that the Beyer Speed Figure could not have come from the final time...that there had to have been a second Beyer..."
I am sure Beyer makes all sorts of mistakes on particular figures.

What I object to is any notion that there is a "pure" method of making figures that avoids this guesswork. We don't actually know how fast the track is. We have contradictory data, and we have to use extrapolation and inductive reasoning to make the most sense of it.
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Old 08-31-2018, 09:38 AM   #177
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I couldn't justify breaking those races apart personally.


I took a quick look at both sets of figures and it appears you guys have the horses different enough going into those races to come to different conclusions about the track speed changing or not Travers day.

This is the kind of stuff I talk about ad nauseam.

There's a subjective element to the process of making figures that can result in different figure makers interpreting results differently and then those differences spilling over into subsequent races. That's why over the years I slowly moved away from trying to make the most accurate figure I could towards thinking in terms of races being fast, average, or slow for the class and then doing my more comparative class/trip handicapping to separate them.

Those older fillies are good and ran fast but those 3yos colts, not so much. A few points either way isn't going to change my view much.

I'm focusing on who's beating who by how much, their overall accomplishments, what I see, their trips, how horses from lower classes do when they try to take them on etc...
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Old 08-31-2018, 10:07 AM   #178
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Certainly possible they aren't legit, but the race looked legit to my eyes. Wow Cat in 3rd basically got the same number if you consider she had a poor break and was pretty wide chasing lone speed in her US debut. The 4th finisher matched her figure.

The top 2 in the Travers also basically matched their prior race. I think all the others just didn't show up. Nothing I see watching that race makes me think I underrated the 3 and back finishers.

I tend to go with the clock without overwhelming evidence otherwise.
I haven't looked at the Personal Ensign closely enough to make a final determination but I definitely agree with your methodology in using Wow Cat's trip in calculating her performance.

I agree 100% with your Travers assessment, You are correct in using the top finishers. The rest of the field just did not run their race. It would have been lunacy to include them in your calculations. Even 3rd place Bravazos' number makes sense considering he had to bull his way through traffic according to the chart. I used the same methodology when I made my figures and concentrated on only the top finishers who were in form and considered their trips as well.
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Old 08-31-2018, 10:08 AM   #179
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I am sure Beyer makes all sorts of mistakes on particular figures.

What I object to is any notion that there is a "pure" method of making figures that avoids this guesswork. We don't actually know how fast the track is. We have contradictory data, and we have to use extrapolation and inductive reasoning to make the most sense of it.
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Old 08-31-2018, 12:44 PM   #180
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The fact that race shape (difference in times for each individual quarters) can have an important effect on race results beyond just pace figures is why I find the ability to click for individual quarter sectionals (splits) in times and pace figures in the TimeformUS PPs. The effect of stop and go racing is just as dramatic as that of stop and go driving and is not something considered in traditional handicapping. We saw this effect at work in the Travers as pointed out in the article.
The trick now is how to quantify for the effect of these quick changes in quarter times.

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