Travers Stakes

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Fuss

I'm ready!


Don't miss this.

Travers Exactaganza Double
You like exactas and doubles? Hit the exacta in the Sword Dancer AND the Travers Stakes at Saratoga on August 25 and hit/split 2,000,000 points!

Love it! Shop is open and ready for business!

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Analysis based on TimeformUS speed-pace figures at relevant race distance adjusted with information gathered by viewing replays of contenders for factors like ground loss and trips. Additionally, used Pace Projector to see who will be advantaged or disadvantaged by the probable pace.

1) Good Magic has the constantly highest figures at the 10 furlong distance (124), though by a narrow margin, and though the projected pace will be fast, can be rated to whatever scenario occurs.

2&3) Tie between Grownkwski and Wonder Gadot. G ran a terrific 2nd in the Belmont and will be formidable if he repeats his 123 figure. The only question is can he run that figure at the shorter Travers distance or does he need 12 furlongs. He should benefit from the expected fast pace.
WG has figures to match and can adapt to the pace scenario by either leading or pressing and closing. I doubt her connections would have passed on an almost sure chance at the Canadian TC unless so had shown she could handle these boys.

4) Vino Rosso ran an impressive 122 in the Belmont but has the same issue as G at the shorter distance. His Jim Dandy performance showed he is too slow early to be effective at 9 furlongs unless he gets a killer pace like he did in the Wood. Unfortunately, his only race at 10 furlongs in the Derby is a throw out due to his troubled trip in that crazy 20 horse stampede on the narrow Churchill strip. He obviously will like the expected quick Travers pace.

5&6) Tenfold and Bravazo have been taking turns beating each other running similar figures in a narrow 117-118 range. they should both be able to handle the pace and distance.

So much for the handicapping. How to structure the betting will depend on the odds.

Good luck to all and may they all come home safely.

Exacta Box:

Good Magic, Wonder Gadot, Gronkowski, Vino Rosso

[GaryG]

CATHOLIC BOY think he will handle the dirt just fine

[Tom]

Wonder Gadot, just because she isn't one of the worst crop of 3yo males in decades. and because Baffert didn't bring a good one in this year.

[Secondbest]

Good Magic -Bravazo. Cold exacta.

[Buckeye]

You forgot to say "ice cold"

I really don't think so, but I've often been wrong before.

I do believe that's about to change though . . .

[Secondbest]

Wish I had this super. Bravazo ran ok . Good Magic had nothing.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Got it down to Catholic Boy, Bravazo or Tenfold for the win now.

Catholic Boy ran 1st @7-1
11 $16.20 $8.20 $5.80

Bravazo ran 3rd @10-1
$6.80

[Buckeye]

What happened to my Rep Power?

Should be pretty higher, right?

[Suff]

Originally Posted by Fuss

Don't miss this.

Travers Exactaganza Double
You like exactas and doubles? Hit the exacta in the Sword Dancer $35 winner AND the Travers Stakes at Saratoga on August 25 and hit/split 2,000,000 points!

2 million NYRA bet loyalty points split between a $127 and a $145 $1 exacta..

I'll be curious what that pays. nyrabets loyalty points are worth nothing. You need 20,000 to make a $20 bet. I'm wondering if people get another 20,000 or 100,000 loyalty points or ??.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

I'm confused how Mendelssohn could even be a possibility in the BC Classic without a win in this race.

you just saw a Mendelssohn who isn't even in condition. He did pretty well, 1st/2nd the whole way, so I'm still a fan. I think he will do better next out.


interesting how catholic boy and mendelssohn both haven't had a race in 49 days, only 2 horses in the field off that long and they ran 1-2. I wasn't a big fan of Catholic Boy until this race, as a matter of fact, I think this is the only time I ever put $$ on him, but it looked like a race he could win.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GaryG

CATHOLIC BOY think he will handle the dirt just fine

Good call, but I don't think dirt was a question mark for the horse. He was one of the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby this year (until he bled in the Florida Derby) off his main track Remsen score last year.

Meanwhile, once again, the 2017 BC Juvenile Turf (note winner Mendelssohn ran 2nd today) proves to be an extraordinarily productive race, dirt or turf.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by GaryG

CATHOLIC BOY think he will handle the dirt just fine

Good pick, no waffling from you.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Catholic Boy ran 1st @7-1
11 $16.20 $8.20 $5.80

Bravazo ran 3rd @10-1
$6.80

Slightly better than 8-1 if you could bet on the x on CB

Wonder Gadot was 19-1 on the x. The Uk bots were not impressed.

Allan

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by clicknow

you just saw a Mendelssohn who isn't even in condition. He did pretty well, 1st/2nd the whole way, so I'm still a fan. I think he will do better next out.


interesting how catholic boy and mendelssohn both haven't had a race in 49 days, only 2 horses in the field off that long and they ran 1-2. I wasn't a big fan of Catholic Boy until this race, as a matter of fact, I think this is the only time I ever put $$ on him, but it looked like a race he could win.

Great to see Mendelssohn actually run a respectable race on dirt in the states.


Is he really a BC Classic contender now after getting beat by a football field?