Sanford Stakes

[classhandicapper]

Interesting dilemma.

#4 Tuggle was given a Beyer figure of 71 for the 7th race at Belmont on 6/21.

However, on that race hard, Beyer split the variant staring with that 7th race. He made the last 3 races 14 points faster than races 1-6. Normally, that's no big deal because tracks change speed. However, that 7th race was a 2yo MSW race with virtually no dirt form to go on. So it's at least conceivable that the 7th race belongs with race 1-6 instead of 8-9 and is actually 14 point faster (or at least somewhere in between). That would give him a figure of 85 and make him a much more serious threat.

To be clear, I am clueless as to what the figure should be. I'm not even sure how anyone could know if the track changed speeds starting with the 7th or 8th (assuming it changed at all). I'm just pointing out how figures in maiden races like this sometimes get very tricky because tracks can change speed and you have so little to go to make the call or projection.

[Tom]

Class, that race is one I marked as ???

I turn the Beyers into Quirin figs and here is my variants for the day at 71 and at 85

If 71 -3 -5 1 -3 -3 1 -9 -4 -8

If 85 -3 -5 1 -3 -3 1 -5 -4 -8


I am going with an 85 - all the other races for the day are close until the last, and on a sloppy track, that is possible.
71 makes the last three -9 -4 -8, not as likely, IMHO.

The pace variants line up better with the 85, too.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Interesting dilemma.

#4 Tuggle was given a Beyer figure of 71 for the 7th race at Belmont on 6/21.

However, on that race hard, Beyer split the variant staring with that 7th race. He made the last 3 races 14 points faster than races 1-6. Normally, that's no big deal because tracks change speed. However, that 7th race was a 2yo MSW race with virtually no dirt form to go on. So it's at least conceivable that the 7th race belongs with race 1-6 instead of 8-9 and is actually 14 point faster (or at least somewhere in between). That would give him a figure of 85 and make him a much more serious threat.

To be clear, I am clueless as to what the figure should be. I'm not even sure how anyone could know if the track changed speeds starting with the 7th or 8th (assuming it changed at all). I'm just pointing out how figures in maiden races like this sometimes get very tricky because tracks can change speed and you have so little to go to make the call or projection.

Timeform has that by far the fastest race in here at almost 37 points higher, so some real difference in the variants on that one.

I have no idea what to make of that horse in this spot. Watching the preps I like the favorite from a talent standpoint but at 2/1 he hardly ran any better than several of these.

The race was slow but the 1 horse ran a very professional race at CD.

[Robert Fischer]

The variant and speed figure stuff is good info. Thanks.

Also note that the chart caller made a rare error in that race, regarding footwork. The colt was actually fundamentally sound.

[GMB@BP]

Noose is 9/5...He can win this race but does not feel like he is 30% to do it.

While I get Tuggle's race has some questions, was in the slope, but 7/1 is fair value to me.

[GMB@BP]

Winner looked tremendous.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Timeform has that by far the fastest race in here at almost 37 points higher, so some real difference in the variants on that one.

I have no idea what to make of that horse in this spot. Watching the preps I like the favorite from a talent standpoint but at 2/1 he hardly ran any better than several of these.

The race was slow but the 1 horse ran a very professional race at CD.

Tuggle didn't win, but probably justified the higher number given that effort IMO. He ran out of gas late after dueling slightly behind and inside (man I HATE that trip) and also getting a pretty good bump by the winner.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

Tuggle didn't win, but probably justified the higher number given that effort IMO. He ran out of gas late after dueling slightly behind and inside (man I HATE that trip) and also getting a pretty good bump by the winner.

Tuggle ran great given the inside is not so great, the pace, the bump. Think the number was spot on really.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Tuggle ran great given the inside is not so great, the pace, the bump. Think the number was spot on really.

In the interest of fairness I probably have the Noose debut win too slow. Going to have to review that one.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

In the interest of fairness I probably have the Noose debut win too slow. Going to have to review that one.

I mean, isnt that a product of the pace, it was so slow the horse only ran a furlong and a half.

But maybe that is the case, 2yo races are tough to gauge.

[Robert Fischer]

solid 3rd


Kind of a weird perfect-storm situation where the BSF may be wrong, the chart says he didn't change leads yet he did, and the public handicapper wasn't featuring him in his top-four...


If I had loved the horse at all, there was more to go into, but I had myself sitting on an $86.50 p3 which cost $3 ( - - ).

No dice, but value was decent.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I mean, isnt that a product of the pace, it was so slow the horse only ran a furlong and a half.

But maybe that is the case, 2yo races are tough to gauge.

Certainly could be, just want to take a look and see why I decided what I did.

[classhandicapper]

I thought he ran fine. I want to take a better look at the rail also.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I thought he ran fine. I want to take a better look at the rail also.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Certainly could be, just want to take a look and see why I decided what I did.

Both the winner and the #1 had dynamite works coming into the race. So both or either may have moved forward also.