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Old 09-01-2021, 08:40 PM   #31
Afleet
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Originally Posted by Si2see View Post
Thank you, and so cool yes I am Jason Phillips, curious what Afleet name is as I met most of the final table members, and if you say you were not nervous at all either then I know at least one guy you are NOT because I thought he was going to fall out a few times he all but said he was going to . I also wore my old Colonial Downs trucker hat at final table.

Yes I used Stats Race Lens, NOT for my handicapping. The reason I bought Stats program before going, and tweaked it some at Colonial the week before I flew out because I hadn't used it since my last Vegas contest which had to be HPWS 2019 I think, is because Stats is a terrific contest prep tool and so much time savings, I load certain angles or race types so it flags and I know to be sure not to miss that race or horse. It is also fantastic because you can customize a lot of the program to your liking however you prefer the info displayed highlighted, etc. Lastly, you can watch the replays with a click of a button right on the horse running line just click the date and replay comes up within a second.

However, I have used Brisnet pps for years, straight up pencil and paper style handicapping but on my computer. I am self taught since 17 years old ( 19 years now ) and I have been developing my game ever since. I have to give a massive shout out to one of my best friend's Mike ( aka PICSIX ). For years around the Richmond area I was known as one of the best turf handicappers around, that is due to teaching myself at Colonial..... However I was horrible at dirt racing other than the stakes races. Mike knew this and thought it was because I might be seeing the races and landing on closers like I normally would on turf, and we learned it's because I had trouble really seeing speed or lack of speed in a race, so he helped me work on that for a few years.

Ultimately I have said for years, maybe on here even, that I can handicap with anyone on any given day. I am not scared to go against a single person in the room in these style tournaments. Ultimately the horses have to run regardless, and if they do it is all about making the least amount of mistakes as possible. If they don't run that contest weekend it really doesn't matter anyway.

Jason
Congratulations! I was really nervous at the end Saturday. I was calmer on Sunday-at least i thought I was. I've never seen stat lens, but I knew they were promoting the highest finisher using stat lens gets $10k-I was tempted to try it. I dont know if we spoke. Due to covid iwasnt sure whether to shake peoples hands. I did say to Sarah she always beats me in the contests

Last edited by Afleet; 09-01-2021 at 08:43 PM.
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Old 09-02-2021, 09:28 AM   #32
Si2see
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Yes I met Sarah for first time at final table as well but her and I have a mutual friend Michael at Old Friends who I am sure is waiting on a check from each of us

I believe we briefly spoke for a quick second you told me you were so tired and exhausted from all of it and I said that’s how I felt Saturday all day ( plus I couldn’t breathe with the dry heat in Virginia it’s humid I never thought I would miss that but I did ). I wore the colonial Downs hat at the final table

I was like you though, more nervous just about making it. Friday I finished 23rd overall, Saturday moved up to 10th overall, Sunday 8th. Ultimately was just three solid days of handicapping for me but I never caught fire once. I had several horses at final table nobody else had or 1 other at the most. One of those horses was 1 at 11-1 dmr I was the only one to cash in that race at all he finished second. Ultimately what did me in was the golden gate race. My 4 horse went very very wide ( table mates said he broke slow also ) and ran 4th, however three people passed me with the 6 at 7-2 or 3 at 5-1 place. I also had 9-1 Saratoga run 4th nobody else had.

Ultimate if Vic checks out this thread also , I have mixed reviews about Bally’s.

The drinks were no problem our table just threw all tickets in middle of table from wagering throughout day and we never paid for a single drink.

The room was old outdated and I think it added to my breathing issues. I had dry blood in my nose all weekend it was horrible.

The casino although I was rarely there was very Smokey , unlike the Venetian which I walked to three times throughout the week to eat.

However , the staff at Bally’s was by far the best hospitality I have ever experienced in my life. Every staff member tournament or non tournament treated me like royalty from day 1, they were fantastic

I am excited to be back in without having to spend another dime for 2022 as that saves some people thousands alone trying to qualify. I will focus on some cash qualifiers or maybe a few last minute bcbc attempts over the next few weeks, keeneland and Breeders cup is where most of my cash handle comes from each year also so I am excited to really hear up for my time of year in horse racing

Jason
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Old 09-02-2021, 02:01 PM   #33
MooseDog
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Would love if you can post your picks...
I watched the result boards all weekend....
Those final few races is where the strategy had to kick in ....
Question: what tools do you use?
thxs
The NTRA makes everyone's picks for the whole contest available in a CSV file at some point, at least they did last year.
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Old 09-02-2021, 03:57 PM   #34
Si2see
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Yes they have already , I had so many run 1st - 4th I will calculate them all myself this weekend.

Afleet, the final table picture was just emailed , were you in the Daily Racing form hat ? If so I did not have the pleasure of meeting you.
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Old 09-02-2021, 05:13 PM   #35
geroge.burns99
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The NTRA makes everyone's picks for the whole contest available in a CSV file at some point, at least they did last year.
thx MD but I cant seem to find much on stats or picks

still searching
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Old 09-03-2021, 12:41 PM   #36
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Old 09-03-2021, 01:38 PM   #37
geroge.burns99
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Churchill doesn't deserve this...

they are a disgrace to the sport

and of course they will comply....more money in their pockets!!
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Old 09-03-2021, 10:10 PM   #38
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Churchill doesn't deserve this...

they are a disgrace to the sport

and of course they will comply....more money in their pockets!!
With CDI, it's not about whether there's MORE money or not - there almost always is. It's about whether that "more" is ENOUGH more in the CDI bean counters' eyes. If the resources committed to making/enforcing any such agreement could be earning a 0.00000001% greater ROI by being committed elsewhere - it's a no go.
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Old 09-04-2021, 11:21 AM   #39
Si2see
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I just calculated all of my plays over the 3 days.

52 plays

8 wins, off odds were 27-1 , 8-1 , 5-1 , 6-1 , 5-1 , 8-1 , 7-1 , 3-1

9 seconds , off odds were 21-1 , 6-5 , 9-2 , 8-1 , 5-2 , 10-1 , 3-1 , 19-1 , 9-1

Then I count 3rd and 4ths also for any large tournament that I place.
5 thirds , 7 fourths

Jason
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Old 09-04-2021, 01:00 PM   #40
geroge.burns99
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I just calculated all of my plays over the 3 days.

52 plays

8 wins, off odds were 27-1 , 8-1 , 5-1 , 6-1 , 5-1 , 8-1 , 7-1 , 3-1

9 seconds , off odds were 21-1 , 6-5 , 9-2 , 8-1 , 5-2 , 10-1 , 3-1 , 19-1 , 9-1

Then I count 3rd and 4ths also for any large tournament that I place.
5 thirds , 7 fourths

Jason
Hi Jason and nice going...

From this it looks like betting favorites are not in your cards...??
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Old 09-04-2021, 01:25 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by Si2see View Post
I just calculated all of my plays over the 3 days.

52 plays

8 wins, off odds were 27-1 , 8-1 , 5-1 , 6-1 , 5-1 , 8-1 , 7-1 , 3-1

9 seconds , off odds were 21-1 , 6-5 , 9-2 , 8-1 , 5-2 , 10-1 , 3-1 , 19-1 , 9-1

Then I count 3rd and 4ths also for any large tournament that I place.
5 thirds , 7 fourths

Jason
If you would, please breakdown these plays/placings in 2 groups----Mandatories and Optionals...
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Old 09-08-2021, 09:47 PM   #42
Si2see
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8 wins, off odds were 27-1 M , 8-1 O , 5-1 M , 6-1 O , 5-1 O , 8-1 O , 7-1 O , 3-1 FT

9 seconds , off odds were 21-1 M, 6-5 M , 9-2 O , 8-1 M , 5-2 M , 10-1 M, 3-1 O , 19-1 O, 9-1 FT

added M mandatory ,O optional, or FT for final table. Curious if you or anyone has input, to me it is just good ( not great I normally get a lot hotter each keeneland meet ) handicapping all around.

For anyone who frequents Horse Tourney leaderboards I have continued playing well since the NHC

Played 9 contests since Sep 4 ( some qualifiers some cash games )

$992 in entry fees

3 wins
2 seconds

$4,727.53 returned

Some pretty good handicapping still one game only had 7 players I put up an average $84.30 score second place player had $34.90

However the best handicapping perhaps in all of the last few weeks 30 players total $133.00 in 12 races second place had $91.30.

All 9 of these tournaments are pick and pray where it is mostly about handicapping, some strategy, and far less luck and stabbing

Jason
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Old 09-08-2021, 10:11 PM   #43
ReplayRandall
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Thank you, Jason...
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Old 09-08-2021, 10:29 PM   #44
Si2see
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Absolutely, and one thing I would like to add I gravitated toward contests a few years back because for me handicapping isn't the hard part... without trying to sound rude at all Twitter practically blew up when my local track handicapper finally pegged a 6-1 top pick in what must have been the 3rd or 4th week of the meet. In all honesty if I only land on one 6-1 in 3 weeks handicapping each race I would quit and never go back to a race track.

However, my weakness and the hard part for me is the wagering even after all of this time I still have a hard time capitalizing the maximum amount and sometimes even cashing at all even if I am dead right with the winner or horses, I always seem to mess something up with the wagering for years now.

This is also why unless I win an entry somehow you won't see me in the BCBC OR many other live money tournaments.

My favorite live money tournament which I hope they bring back is the Laurel $300 buy in, $200 of which is your live money to bet with, you must best 10 bets or more at minimum of $20 Win or Place or Show however you can play as many races or as much of your bankroll as you wish.

To my this is still a handicapping contest where you play your best opinions the heaviest, however when you start throwing ex and tri into the mix like most live money contests now, almost every single one you will see someone just meet the minimum race requirements and then they hit $50 straight trifecta or $500 straight exacta.... God bless them for being able to do that but I will never hit a straight bet like that and IMO it isn't handicapping I call all of those tournaments betting challenges and you wont see me play many if any because I wouldn't stand a chance.
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Old 09-11-2021, 08:30 PM   #45
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thx MD but I cant seem to find much on stats or picks

still searching
Looks like the full picks files are available now in Excel or CSV format.

https://www.ntra.com/nhc2021/
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