Gamine

[classhandicapper]

So what's the consensus on Gamine?

She's had 2 races this year where she earned Beyer figures of 98 and 99. Both are well off her peak figures 110, 110, and 108.

It's similar with Timeform figures.

Peaks of 133 and 125 and 112 and 114 this year.

Both races this year featured slow paces where she made the lead. In the 1st it looked like she won with plenty in reserve. This last one was a little tougher, though she and Sconsin came home very quick for a dirt race.

Is she the same horse and just hasn't been cranked and asked for her best yet or has she slipped?

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

So what's the consensus on Gamine?

She's had 2 races this year where she earned Beyer figures of 98 and 99. Both are well off her peak figures 110, 110, and 108.

It's similar with Timeform figures.

Peaks of 133 and 125 and 112 and 114 this year.

Both races this year featured slow paces where she made the lead. In the 1st it looked like she won with plenty in reserve. This last one was a little tougher, though she and Sconsin came home very quick for a dirt race.

Is she the same horse and just hasn't been cranked and asked for her best yet or has she slipped?

I'm not betting against her off those races, but not on her either. They were basically paid workouts. My one concern is maybe she isn't quite the same without Lasix.

[taxicab]

Take a gander at the head-on from Saturday,that is a scary bobble in terms of her right front out of the gate........her leg was twisted straight at a bad angle.
Gamine then lugged out pretty hard early..........if she disappears for an extended amount of time that gate bobble will be the reason.
I think her legs are probably a little dicey anyway.......so I'll be surprised if Baffert gets much more out of her in terms of starts.
Bottom line...........super high quality filly.........but fragile.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

So what's the consensus on Gamine?

She's had 2 races this year where she earned Beyer figures of 98 and 99. Both are well off her peak figures 110, 110, and 108.

It's similar with Timeform figures.

Peaks of 133 and 125 and 112 and 114 this year.

Both races this year featured slow paces where she made the lead. In the 1st it looked like she won with plenty in reserve. This last one was a little tougher, though she and Sconsin came home very quick for a dirt race.

Is she the same horse and just hasn't been cranked and asked for her best yet or has she slipped?

I don't understand the concern about the "numbers" varying from one race to another. I always thought the objective was to try to win the race no matter how the race was run.

Horses are not machines and their physicality goes through cycles.

Besides as a former speed handicapper it was always my contention that "pace makes the race". So obviously if the pace is considered slow the final time will reflect those early fractions no matter the track condition is.

[Spalding No!]

Similar to Life Is Good in the San Felipe, Gamine's rider has been forced to drop the outside rein for the entirety of her 2 starts this season. She has also been late switching leads in the stretch.

She got out a little bit in the Acorn and drifted out in entering the far turn in the Kentucky Oaks (and struggled to switch leads in the stretch) but those were longer races.

If they sit on her until the Ballerina (and then sit on her some more afterwards) they'll probably make the BC F/M Sprint.

No big deal. Basically, it just means skipping a Grade 2 at Los Alamitos (the Great Lady M.), unless they were planning on taking on males or stretching her out again.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Similar to Life Is Good in the San Felipe, Gamine's rider has been forced to drop the outside rein for the entirety of her 2 starts this season. She has also been late switching leads in the stretch.

She got out a little bit in the Acorn and drifted out in entering the far turn in the Kentucky Oaks (and struggled to switch leads in the stretch) but those were longer races.

If they sit on her until the Ballerina (and then sit on her some more afterwards) they'll probably make the BC F/M Sprint.

No big deal. Basically, it just means skipping a Grade 2 at Los Alamitos (the Great Lady M.), unless they were planning on taking on males or stretching her out again.

I believe they were planning on the Phipps, 8.5F on Belmont Stakes Day. I have no idea if those plans changed

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I believe they were planning on the Phipps, 8.5F on Belmont Stakes Day. I have no idea if those plans changed

Thanks, I couldn't even come up with a sprint stakes of consequence for older fillies and mares between now and the Ballerina. Had to look up Marley's Freedom's record to figure out where she might turn up.

Baffert was quoted post-race as saying she was just "looking around" so it's probably full steam ahead for the time being.

Not sure what Letruska is up to but could be a golden opportunity for her to add to her giant killer status.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Thanks, I couldn't even come up with a sprint stakes of consequence for older fillies and mares between now and the Ballerina. Had to look up Marley's Freedom's record to figure out where she might turn up.

Baffert was quoted post-race as saying she was just "looking around" so it's probably full steam ahead for the time being.

Not sure what Letruska is up to but could be a golden opportunity for her to add to her giant killer status.

Just looking around. Feels like I heard that somewhere before. (Life Is Good)

[classhandicapper]

It’s an interesting case. Slow paces can sometimes carry cheaper speeds to a faster final time but hold back top horses from running to their capabilities. She is (was?) certainly in the latter category, but you have the monkey wrench of it being a new year and new form cycle. I think we’ll know when Baffert enters her in a race where she might get tested. He tends to crank up the works. If she’s not working like she’s ready for a big race, she might be vulnerable. But it’s still going to take a very good horse to beat her at a sprint/mile no matter what.

[burnsy]

She can sprint. But as of now last years Oaks results are holding up. The best 4 yo right now......... is Shedaresthedevil.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

IShe is (was?) certainly in the latter category, but you have the monkey wrench of it being a new year and new form cycle.

While the obvious thing to point out is that she had similar numbers first and second time out last year and has yet to reach peak form, the key difference is the running lines and her workouts.

Already mentioned has been the bad break, the bearing out, and the late lead changes.

But leading up to the Humana Distaff, Gamine's worktab belies the likelihood that they are already having to baby her after just one start this year.

Gamine worked back after the Las Flores like clockwork 14 days after the race, as she did pretty much the entire 2020 season. However, she only worked a slow 3 furlongs. Very unusual from that barn with a horse that is already race fit. Almost like they were testing her out. Once they decided they were in good shape, they wheeled her right back 6 days later and worked her 6 furlongs as though they needed to make up for lost time (or distance as it were).

I would watch how long it takes for her to perform her first work back closely if they are planning another start before the summer.

Coincidentally, the only time Gamine did not work back 14 days after a race last year was after the Kentucky Oaks, a botched stretch out attempt and her worst performance on the year.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Coincidentally, the only time Gamine did not work back 14 days after a race last year was after the Kentucky Oaks, a botched stretch out attempt and her worst performance on the year.

I didn't think the inside part of the track (where she ran) was especially kind that day and I think she's a little suspect as she stretches out anyway. I tossed that race.

I didn't notice the timing of the workout patterns (days between). I guess we'll see what he does with her now. I don't think Baffert was trying to peak for these first two races anyway. He tends to give horses a really big work before their most important races. He did that with her last year a couple of times like he was trying to crank her up. Absent a big work, I'd be more likely to think there's a red flag.

The stumble was ugly, but she recovered quickly. If she has a problem out of the race, I trust he'll handle it properly.

[mountainman]

Bobbling is usually a bad sign. Sometimes very bad. Although less so at the outset of a race. And the jock had his hands full as she attempted to lug out. Issues.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think we’ll know when Baffert enters her in a race where she might get tested. He tends to crank up the works. If she’s not working like she’s ready for a big race, she might be vulnerable. But it’s still going to take a very good horse to beat her at a sprint/mile no matter what.

Gamine hasn’t looked as fast or as good so far this year, but she’s been working much better over the last few weeks than she had been so far this year. I suspect Baffert has her cranked up for whatever her peak is at this stage. I know I won’t be trying to beat her loose on the lead at a level that is likely to be better than we’ve seen so far this year.