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Old 08-20-2021, 12:59 PM   #1
Tom
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KUDOS to NYRA.......BFD!

https://www.drf.com/news/nyra-puts-r...ering-programs

The starting gate....parimutuel betting....off track betting, and now this!

NYRA sticks up for the majority.
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The decision was made to address perceptions that the programs are significantly contributing to late changes in win-pool odds on races at NYRA’s Saratoga Race Course, according to the officials. CAWs, as the programs are known, are frequently blamed for late odds changes due to the ability of the programs to swiftly analyze win-pool odds and place enormous wagers within seconds of the gates opening.

“For the everyday player, dramatic late odds shifts are a frustrating side effect of high-volume wagers placed at the last possible second,” said Patrick McKenna, NYRA’s senior director of communications, in a prepared response to questions.
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Old 08-20-2021, 01:33 PM   #2
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Wow.

I think the CRW teams can adapt pretty easily with 'beard' ADW accounts.


I'm trying to think in terms of what it would look like w/out CRW?

If the money wasn't simply re-sourced - one thought = you may see better odds on a 2nd or 3rd choice contender. Rather than hedging/dutching as much with the favorite.

late changes? Again, I think it may be re-sourced... The late changes aren't so bad when they basically even the pool out to match the probables.

late changes for 'betting coups' (horses that don't figure as contenders, and aren't significant in will-pay probables, or in a rare race with no will-pays(1st race, or some tracks that don't have 'rolling' multis) SUCK! but what can you do?

late changes when a horse breaks through the gate or is extremely fractious is another thing.

Hopefully this is at least somewhat significant and successful
.

the Win Pool can be a great pool. It's not paying you the big scores like a P5, but there are times when 'Win' is the best option. Also a good litmus for your skill.
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Old 08-20-2021, 01:35 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
Wow.

I think the CRW teams can adapt pretty easily with 'beard' ADW accounts.


I'm trying to think in terms of what it would look like w/out CRW?

If the money wasn't simply re-sourced - one thought = you may see better odds on a 2nd or 3rd choice contender. Rather than hedging/dutching as much with the favorite.

late changes? Again, I think it may be re-sourced... The late changes aren't so bad when they basically even the pool out to match the probables.

late changes for 'betting coups' (horses that don't figure as contenders, and aren't significant in will-pay probables, or in a rare race with no will-pays(1st race, or some tracks that don't have 'rolling' multis) SUCK! but what can you do?

late changes when a horse breaks through the gate or is extremely fractious is another thing.

Hopefully this is at least somewhat significant and successful
.

the Win Pool can be a great pool. It's not paying you the big scores like a P5, but there are times when 'Win' is the best option. Also a good litmus for your skill.
I'm not so sure. They can get beard accounts, but the rebates won't be the same, tote access won't be the same either. They'd be like, well, us!
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Old 08-20-2021, 01:39 PM   #4
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At least they're bringing attention to the issue and taking a step to do the right thing. Way more than I can say for California. Kudos to NYRA
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Old 08-20-2021, 01:42 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
I'm not so sure. They can get beard accounts, but the rebates won't be the same, tote access won't be the same either. They'd be like, well, us!
Bingo. That is two of their biggest advantages that would be all but gone if they tried to put the handle through a beard/retail account.

All pools are also monitored, so it would be found eventually. And if found, would be an issue.

Great job NYRA!
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Old 08-20-2021, 02:02 PM   #6
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They'll probably try to up their bet sizes and volume in other pools when possible (to meet volume requirements for rebates) and only make wins bets when they think the pool is so far out of line they have a larger margin of safety than before and can accept the odds at 2-3 minutes from post time and still make a bet comfortably. They'll probably miss out on some of the more marginal win situations they bet now.
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Old 08-20-2021, 02:39 PM   #7
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Win pools are down 12% since change took place.

Wow. Bettors getting a fair shake.

We can’t have that....

Allan
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Old 08-20-2021, 07:29 PM   #8
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I agree, have to give them a lot of credit for at least trying. NJ gets a lot of my respect for trying to introduce the exchange and fixed odds to bring order to some of the chaos.

It is true though NYRAs end of wagering double probables are very close to eventual final odds a high percentage of the time, it's definitely an acceptable level of tolerance for me personally to flat bet them as if they are fixed odds.... when I spot-checked it anyway. Other tracks, smaller tracks I don't know if it's as close, haven't had time for a more comprehensive study, also not every track even has rolling doubles to leverage for this, I think they all should and for no other reason tbh. So for race one we have lunch instead.
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Old 08-20-2021, 09:16 PM   #9
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I wonder why none of the guys on here who watch (LIKE A HAWK) and report every five minutes on late odds drops in the win pool, never noticed the CAW "at the bell" money had been eliminated from the biggest meet in the country?

Even when Andy dropped a hint a few weeks ago, they still didn't notice until it was widely reported.

Fascinating.
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Old 08-20-2021, 10:10 PM   #10
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I thought this was a big deal. Players have been complaining about this for over a decade. I was a bit surprised NYRA wasn't given more credit for doing this.I am actually glad their handle has not declined over all. I guess they are betting in other pools which is okay. Overall,I think they are doing a great job with this. I haven't heard of any other jurisdiction doing this, It has to be a plus and perhaps other positive changes will come.
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Old 08-20-2021, 10:31 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
At least they're bringing attention to the issue and taking a step to do the right thing. Way more than I can say for California. Kudos to NYRA
Agree....

And look who's smack in the middle of this.....

Horse Racings biggest Corporate "Friend"...."Churchill Downs"

Question:

Will we as bettors find out what the Whales are betting ?

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Old 08-20-2021, 10:32 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
Win pools are down 12% since change took place.

Wow. Bettors getting a fair shake.

We can’t have that....

Allan
the win pools are down, but the exacta pools might have taken up the slack.
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Old 08-20-2021, 10:34 PM   #13
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the win prices have been great there for the past week.
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Old 08-20-2021, 10:36 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
I wonder why none of the guys on here who watch (LIKE A HAWK) and report every five minutes on late odds drops in the win pool, never noticed the CAW "at the bell" money had been eliminated from the biggest meet in the country?

Even when Andy dropped a hint a few weeks ago, they still didn't notice until it was widely reported.

Fascinating.
I have noticed that since I've been attending the last week. A few days ago, I saw that Gotstormy was 12-1 a minute to post. A few minutes later, shocked to see she actually paid $27..
This is not a redboard post. My wife bet on her, not me.
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Old 08-20-2021, 10:52 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
I wonder why none of the guys on here who watch (LIKE A HAWK) and report every five minutes on late odds drops in the win pool, never noticed the CAW "at the bell" money had been eliminated from the biggest meet in the country?

Even when Andy dropped a hint a few weeks ago, they still didn't notice until it was widely reported.

Fascinating.
Most people who want to bet flat like me have either passed away, moved on entirely by now to some other sports betting or joined the vast majority in switching over to gimmicks.

I don't quite understand the initial secrecy with dropping a hint about this tbh. I'm sure there's a reason. Calling people out however for not noticing seems like secretly netting the Durban beaches and wondering why people still aren't swimming yet. I'm sure a few folks will slowly start making their way back into the water now that they know it's safe to do so.

As for the CAW part of this, from my perspective a change like this eliminates holes in the system (if there were any or possibly even potential ones) i.e. if there were in fact some late stragglers who have been getting away with betting after everyone else, after the bell etc, in theory that should no longer be possible. I'm a computer guy so I know what's actually possible but let's go ahead and assume this is fixed, I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt. With that being said I welcome all money in the pools, including CAW money.

Admittedly I'm very late to the party for leveraging double probables to mitigate the issues with odds volatility. I had willpays in my head for too long, I knew the score with those, so I didn't give this a fair shake until Andy browbeat us enough times. THIS really should be what NYRA and all tracks provide IMO. Just have a projected odds line for the second leg shown on the monitors based upon the closing DD probables from the first leg. Again I'm not talking about DD willpays, willpays are calculated off the 1st leg winners share of the pool, period, that ranges anywhere from a good chunk of the pool to next to nothing, willpays aren't within close enough tolerances IMO. Once this is provided I don't think anyone has excuses for not betting flat with respect to odds volatility. And yes we can copy paste the DD matrix into excel but it would be far better to provide these projected final odds for everyone's benefit, not everyone knows how to do this in excel or if they do know how they might not want to carry a laptop with them to the track just for this purpose.

So with those two changes we'd really be getting somewhere. Still have to deal with the vet/drug problem but things are moving in the right direction IMO.
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