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Old 08-01-2020, 07:14 PM   #166
GMB@BP
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This fits time wise for me, pretty much hung up the towel betting any real money, if you call it that, about 2006.

I never was that big of better, maxing out a little over 100k a year. I always broke about even, still do, but the disadvantage presented just told me to only bet occasionally, usually in win pools and when I have a real opinion.

You have to wonder, many people who are in the business dont really care about the bettors. There are many more that align with Jeff Mullins opinions on bettors than people realize, so a faceless, fanless, betting machine that props up their purses, provides jobs, etc..why should they care?

I just am not obligated to contribute.
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Old 08-01-2020, 07:58 PM   #167
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I am not sure how smart these CAW even need to be with the system rigged for them, I mean I am sure they are but 2% profit doesnt seem that hard to me.
When betting $20 a race...a 2% profit doesn't seem that hard. But when betting $20,000 a race...the same 2% profit looms considerably harder.
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Old 08-01-2020, 08:08 PM   #168
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When betting $20 a race...a 2% profit doesn't seem that hard. But when betting $20,000 a race...the same 2% profit looms considerably harder.
Not with a 10%-15% rebate its not. Thats how I read that, they average a 2%-4% profit after their rebates.
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Old 08-01-2020, 09:55 PM   #169
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But let's be real for a moment.

Hasn't the majority of handle always been bet by a minority of the players? At least in modern times?

The smart money is ALWAYS betting more than dumb money...always.

That's why it's the smart money.

But there are a lot more dumb players than smart players. So you would think the dumb players bet as much or more than the smart players, on the whole.

That never happens though...because, luckily, for the most part, the dumb players instinctively know they're dumb...so they don't bet a lot...

If they don't know they're dumb, then they just go broke quickly if they bet a lot more than they should.
Maybe I'm wrong, but if you landed on the same horse as the "smart money" back in the day, It might still be an overlay. If you land on the same horse today, it's more than likely an underlay but becomes an overlay only if the rebate is large enough. The days of being patient and selective don't matter anymore because your perceived overlay is going to be bet down at the last second anyway.
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Old 08-01-2020, 11:56 PM   #170
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Maybe I'm wrong, but if you landed on the same horse as the "smart money" back in the day, It might still be an overlay. If you land on the same horse today, it's more than likely an underlay but becomes an overlay only if the rebate is large enough. The days of being patient and selective don't matter anymore because your perceived overlay is going to be bet down at the last second anyway.
Idk if it was like that back in the day. My guess is that there were still smart people betting enough to make the pools as efficient as they could be *given the general data available*.

But, you're absolutely right that the rebates allow depressing a price past the point of true "breakeven" given the horse's actual chance of winning. This imo is the biggest problem with offering tiered rebates, where you're tiered based on volume. To solve this problem, get rid of rebates entirely and reduce track take.
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Old 08-02-2020, 12:24 AM   #171
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Not with a 10%-15% rebate its not. Thats how I read that, they average a 2%-4% profit after their rebates.
Why not do it yourself if it is so easy?
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Old 08-02-2020, 12:40 AM   #172
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Why not do it yourself if it is so easy?
Yea, let me go to the bank and pull out the millions in capital to get started.

I wish I had thought of that, dang.

and what they are doing is sophisticated, I will grant that, but wit the advantage it feels completely doable.

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Old 08-02-2020, 11:08 AM   #173
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Idk if it was like that back in the day. My guess is that there were still smart people betting enough to make the pools as efficient as they could be *given the general data available*.

But, you're absolutely right that the rebates allow depressing a price past the point of true "breakeven" given the horse's actual chance of winning. This imo is the biggest problem with offering tiered rebates, where you're tiered based on volume. To solve this problem, get rid of rebates entirely and reduce track take.
Yes, but “back in the day” the best of the best showed a profit even with 15-20 plus percent takeouts which means they were betting true overlays. Most of those bets would be long term losing propositions today without massive rebates. The takeout would probably have to be around 8% for the average player to have any real long term chance, and that will never happen.
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Old 08-02-2020, 12:00 PM   #174
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The days of being patient and selective don't matter anymore because your perceived overlay is going to be bet down at the last second anyway.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the game has changed a little.

I can't "out math", "out calculate", "out odds line", or "out bet" guys with sophisticated computer handicapping models and betting algorithms.

All I can do is find situations where my own testing suggests there is still value. Maybe they are too specific for the computer guys to code for, generally misunderstood, or those guys aren't using the same methodology and/or data.

If you have insights like that, even if the odds move around, you should still be in safe territory with just a casual glance at the board. That's easier said than done of course. But it seems better than making an odds line of 3-1, seeing the horse at 6-1 with a minute to go, making the wager, and watching him go off at 2-1 last flash.
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Old 08-02-2020, 12:32 PM   #175
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i love the CRW. they are the best thing to ever hit pari-mutuel betting. all you have to do is figure out how to beat them at their own game. its really just a question of how much you want to pick up.
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Old 08-02-2020, 01:04 PM   #176
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Yea, let me go to the bank and pull out the millions in capital to get started.

I wish I had thought of that, dang.

and what they are doing is sophisticated, I will grant that, but wit the advantage it feels completely doable.
Surely you have many horse betting friends who share your viewpoint. Start a partnership and pool your money. You just have to start big enough to get your max rebates.
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Old 08-02-2020, 01:06 PM   #177
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Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the game has changed a little.

I can't "out math", "out calculate", "out odds line", or "out bet" guys with sophisticated computer handicapping models and betting algorithms.

All I can do is find situations where my own testing suggests there is still value. Maybe they are too specific for the computer guys to code for, generally misunderstood, or those guys aren't using the same methodology and/or data.

If you have insights like that, even if the odds move around, you should still be in safe territory with just a casual glance at the board. That's easier said than done of course. But it seems better than making an odds line of 3-1, seeing the horse at 6-1 with a minute to go, making the wager, and watching him go off at 2-1 last flash.
I totally concur. It is a fool's game to try and outwit the bigboys on their playing field.
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Old 08-02-2020, 04:10 PM   #178
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i love the CRW. they are the best thing to ever hit pari-mutuel betting. all you have to do is figure out how to beat them at their own game. its really just a question of how much you want to pick up.
More "suitcases full of cash."
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Old 08-02-2020, 04:41 PM   #179
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Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the game has changed a little.

I can't "out math", "out calculate", "out odds line", or "out bet" guys with sophisticated computer handicapping models and betting algorithms.

All I can do is find situations where my own testing suggests there is still value. Maybe they are too specific for the computer guys to code for, generally misunderstood, or those guys aren't using the same methodology and/or data.

If you have insights like that, even if the odds move around, you should still be in safe territory with just a casual glance at the board. That's easier said than done of course. But it seems better than making an odds line of 3-1, seeing the horse at 6-1 with a minute to go, making the wager, and watching him go off at 2-1 last flash.
As I see the game these days, for the most part, with a few rare exceptions, contenders are almost over bet. The profit in my opinion is in the horse I make 6-1 that go off at 20-1 or horses I make 12-1 that go off at 25-1. imo the days of betting your top choice who you make 7/5 and hope that you will get 2-1 are pretty much gone. In general when you make a horse 7/5. when he wins, he will win at 1-1 or less. The chances are if he is 9/5 or greater, you are not going to watch him win 41% of the time, unless you are a truly gifted handicapper. This is the feeling I get. With chalk they serve 1 function, as exotic keys. Your 7/5 that is 4/5 doesn't do you a lot of good on the win end as he may only win 40 to 45% of the time, but as pick 5 single or key horse, a tri or super key, he can be very useful. That is the game today imo. The problem is that the game is not user friendly. Most people are trained to play the horse that looks best. No matter who you are that horse will most likely be over bet. So the typical $2 bettor learning the game has a menu of a bunch of below break even contenders and gets to figure out which one he is going to make a bad bet on. I know there are a few out there that claim they have figured out how to beat this game with logical horses. Congrats. I am much more like Pandy. My game revolves around longshots. That is where the value is in this current game. As they over bet every horse with a pulse, the odds drift up on the rest. It sucks that you often don't see the value until the far turn however. Also you run the risk of betting horses that may not be well intentioned.

I am not saying you cannot adapt and beat this game. My opinion is why have a system that continually frustrates the everyday bettor. You want new blood, but give them a game that is so frustrating they can rarely succeed and have to revert to low prob pick 4's and pick 5's just to delude themselves into thinking they can beat this game. It just doesn't create a game that has a lot of staying power for most. You have to balance the benefit of what whales bring to the game with the tax they provide to the everyday player and if you are rational you will realize the current system doesn't work. There is a better way, but it isn't happening so unfortunately we have 2 choices, live with the game we have and adopt the best we can or abandon the game. Plenty do the latter.
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Old 08-02-2020, 05:13 PM   #180
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You want new blood, but give them a game...


There is a better way

Difficult to figure out who will wake-up first:

the collective Pace Advantage crowd, or the track managers across the continent.


(has zero to do with Poindexter, FYI - I just borrowed his words)



The attraction to the Computerized-wagering groups and to the rebate shops need only be reversed in plain sight, at every track and OTB in the land, by making the horse race wagering game more appealing to everyone at the same time.


Parimutuel wagering is racing's strength... and its grand difference from all of the rest of the competition for the gambling dollar.

So once and for all, racing must begin to play to its strength for the first time in our collective lifetimes (though only possible during the past 30-ish years).

To continue to ignore the obvious is to allow horse racing pools to continue to be dominated by computers, each doing to you all what you've been collectively doing to others for decades. Your double-standards are constantly amusing.

Horse racing in North America must simply DO something for its collective fanbase (that means evvvvvvvvvvverybody) for the first time in racing's existence.

After decades/centuries of a free ride, merely standing around with its hand out, horse racing need only begin to DO SOMETHING for its collective fanbase to turn the corner, altering the equation unfavorably for the rebaters and the computerized value-players at the same time.


Late odds changes will return to the land of the wholly irrelevant once you put the public on the *live* horses to begin with.


It is THAT simple... and it is something which should have been done in 1990. Racing opened up this window of opportunity nearly a third of a century ago, and then did nothing for the collective public while a few opportunists took the bulk of the money.


The equation hasn't changed one iota in 3 decades even though HANA has materialized and seemingly died a predictable death without bothering to address the obvious equation.
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