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Old 10-27-2020, 01:30 PM   #151
classhandicapper
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IMO, given the way the race is shaping up (weak field w/ declining form, decent pace scenario) things can still fall into place for a whipping boy like Tacitus (...if they take the blinkers off).
Come on man. You are one of the sharpest and most detailed guys on the entire forum. Half the field will have to collapse and Tacitus would have to run a lifetime top for him to win.

I happen to agree that the best move would be to take the blinkers off and try to make one late run, but sometimes marriages end in divorce. It's time for a trial separation from this money burning machine unless you are getting a VERY good price. I wouldn't want to talk you off a horse that may get a good trip at a good price...not even Tacitus.
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Old 10-27-2020, 02:24 PM   #152
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Come on man. You are one of the sharpest and most detailed guys on the entire forum. Half the field will have to collapse and Tacitus would have to run a lifetime top for him to win.
And then even then, he has to not find one of his many ways of getting into trouble and getting beat.

I do get that everything has a price. If the bettors are so sick of Tacitus that he's up there at an Aracangues-like price, sure, I can understand saying he has SOME small chance of winning and taking the plunge.

But bettors have stuck with this horse. His career is loaded with races where he was overbet, not underbet. So it would be surprising if he isn't overbet again in the BC.
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Old 10-27-2020, 05:21 PM   #153
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Half the field will have to collapse and Tacitus would have to run a lifetime top for him to win.
The form of the Classic probables going into the Classic is quite interesting and leaves a lot of question marks.

First, as it stands now, Tacitus and Authentic will be the only horses with a start in October. Improbable and Maximum Security ran in late September. All others "trained up to the race".

Of those "training up to the race" only Global Campaign has trained in his regular pattern since his last start. Curiously, all others have drunk the Baffert Kool-Aid and decided that their horses need to rattle off bullet work after bullet work heading into the Classic:

By My Standards' last 3 works were bullets when he usually works slow and only works fast right before a race. Tom's d'Etat took 6 weeks to work back from the Whitney and his last 2 works were bullets going 6 furlongs; he rarely breezed fast previously. Higher Power, who didn't show up for the Fayette, has 3 fast works at 6f and 7f since shipping to KY.

Barclay Tagged adopted a bullet-fest work pattern for Tiz The Law after his Belmont win; prior to that, the horse would work in mostly modest times. He significantly skipped the Preakness when reportedly "not ready to work" and only did work 3 weeks after the Derby (whereas he worked back within 2 weeks of his previous 2 races). His second work back was a botch job, going 5f in a ridiculous :57+. His last 2 works have been fast 6f moves, a distance he hadn't breezed since March, not even during the hiatus between the FL Derby and Belmont.

The 3 horses from the beleaguered Baffert barn are obviously working fast though curiously Maximum Security, who ran the worst race of his career last out, only went 5 furlongs in his last work while the other 2 went 7 furlongs. He's been working in company (and galloped out strongly in the last one) so maybe that explains the choice of distance. Even in his wins this year he's looked ordinary at best.

Given many of the above are coming off losses, have health questions, have stamina concerns, and yet have ramped up work patterns, we might very well witness a battle of attrition that a horse like Tacitus would need to make a dent.

Tacitus had a moderate half mile work since the JCGC. He normally works decent times, but we'll see if the experienced Mott foolishly tries to do something out of the ordinary. Hopefully, with plenty of races under his belt, he simply stays on a maintenance pattern and then one can start visiting church and praying for "blinkers off".
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Old 10-27-2020, 06:11 PM   #154
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"Form" looks like Tacitus should run in a mile allowance/OC at Woodbine.



We know most of the major players.




I'm not a big Global Campaign fan, but he's turned in some good races.

Guess it's 'see the field', + watch some workout vids of Baffert etc...


Tacitus is a cool horse. And, he's had several tough trips where he performed competitively in spite of the trip, for legitimate upgrades. Currently, his form may even have 'declined'. However, he hasn't developed to where his potential suggested. Not every horse we love, turns out to be a division leader.
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Old 10-27-2020, 08:00 PM   #155
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Not every horse we love, turns out to be a division leader.
Who cares about being a division leader? He just needs to run like Volponi in the BC Classic (the first one he ran in, not the second).
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Old 10-27-2020, 09:38 PM   #156
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Who cares about being a division leader? He just needs to run like Volponi in the BC Classic (the first one he ran in, not the second).
I hear Chris Harn has him on his Pick Six ticket.
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Old 10-28-2020, 01:16 AM   #157
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I hear Chris Harn has him on his Pick Six ticket.
Well yeah he has ALL in the Classic.
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Old 11-02-2020, 06:40 AM   #158
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Tacitus is a cool horse. And, he's had several tough trips where he performed competitively in spite of the trip, for legitimate upgrades. Currently, his form may even have 'declined'. However, he hasn't developed to where his potential suggested. Not every horse we love, turns out to be a division leader.
He might have done better under a different trainer. This wasn't a good fit.


Was never a Tacitus fan, so he never took money from me. But now that I see what's what, I would probably find a place for him on my ticket.

I doubt I will play this race --- avoiding races where Baffert has runners is only way I can enjoy racing.
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Old 11-07-2020, 06:55 PM   #159
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A typical Tacitus performance.
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Old 11-07-2020, 07:29 PM   #160
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A typical Tacitus performance.
IMHO, they did the right thing with him.

They were hoping the pace was hot, the race collapsed, and a late run could pull off the upset. The pace wasn't fast and he probably would have been outkicked by several others anyway, but they probably maximized his finish and their check for the race with that strategy ($$$). IMO, had they used him early to be in contention and engaged he probably would have finished up the track. He is what he is. He was a very good early 3yo that never developed much and is more of a Grade 2 horse against older.
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Old 11-08-2020, 12:26 AM   #161
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I don't know why any horse bettor wouldn't like Tacitus. Not, of course, for them to bet. But for other people to bet and creating value elsewhere. These chronic "non winners" are not going to suddenly figure it out. Take advantage.
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Old 11-08-2020, 03:32 AM   #162
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These chronic "non winners" are not going to suddenly figure it out. Take advantage.
Alysheba, John Henry, Accelerate, Criminal Type, Farma Way, Cigar, Pleasant Tap, Game On Dude, Alphabet Soup, Aptitude, Saint Liam, Lava Man, Bates Motel, Vigors, Big Spruce, Cutlass Reality, Jovial, Turkoman, Star of Cozzene, Black Tie Affair, Escena, Hidden Lake, Kotashaan, Rubiano, Aldebaran, Riboletta, Dispersal, Langfuhr, Fit to Fight, Another Review, Garthorn, Beau Genius
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Old 11-10-2020, 01:54 PM   #163
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Alysheba, John Henry, Accelerate, Criminal Type, Farma Way, Cigar, Pleasant Tap, Game On Dude, Alphabet Soup, Aptitude, Saint Liam, Lava Man, Bates Motel, Vigors, Big Spruce, Cutlass Reality, Jovial, Turkoman, Star of Cozzene, Black Tie Affair, Escena, Hidden Lake, Kotashaan, Rubiano, Aldebaran, Riboletta, Dispersal, Langfuhr, Fit to Fight, Another Review, Garthorn, Beau Genius
Great memory. Cutlass reality baffled me. I was a young guy in the military stationed in California when he went on his run. According to equibase, he won 7 of his first 56 races before going on a 7 for 9 tear including the destruction of Alysheba and Ferdinand.
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Old 11-10-2020, 02:38 PM   #164
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Great memory. Cutlass reality baffled me. I was a young guy in the military stationed in California when he went on his run. According to equibase, he won 7 of his first 56 races before going on a 7 for 9 tear including the destruction of Alysheba and Ferdinand.
I think Cutlass Reality was just a horse who discovered he really loved California racetracks. After his amazing performances out here, he went back to Kentucky... and stiffed in the BC Classic.

There are horses like that. Lava Man was one, and the ultimate one was Noor, who basically ran some of the fastest races in American racing history, beating two TC winners and multiple division champions in California, while being unable to duplicate his form back east.

Sometimes there are explanations for these things. E.g., it looks like Cigar was a dirt horse who kept on being run on the grass. Alysheba had an entrapped epiglottis which was fixed and made him a completely different horse.

Other times, we have no idea what went on.
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Old 11-11-2020, 07:57 AM   #165
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A typical Tacitus performance.
Indeed.

Having a predictable horse in a race that you can plop down in 4th place is a good thing if you are playing exotics or super high five.

I would never complain about it. I'm not sick of him at all.
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