 |
05-22-2018, 01:00 PM
|
#1
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
correctly determing the exacta place horse
I use the twinespires tote board for down loading wps and exacta pools into excel.
I have hundreds if not thousand such files going back years.
The down loads for each race range incrementally from 4 min to 1 or 0 minutes to post.
For the past several months I have been looking at this data to find occasions when the exacta $1 return will outperform the $1 win return.
As of now, I have has some limited success in determining which horses, placing 2nd will accomplish this.
I have been posting many such plays live in the selections forum.
You should note here that I’m picking the place horse and bet size, not the winner. That’s left up to the viewer
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
05-22-2018, 01:15 PM
|
#2
|
|
Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
|
You say 'outperform the winner' but talk about the place horse, and saying the winner is unknown.
Make sense to you?
|
|
|
|
|
05-22-2018, 01:34 PM
|
#3
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
You say 'outperform the winner' but talk about the place horse, and saying the winner is unknown.
Make sense to you?
|
The intent is to offer the win bettor a possibility of improving his return by matching his win selection with my place selections.
here is an example of a play I just posted on the selection forum
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Code:
"Finger Lakes
Race
1
Post
1:10
MTP
2
$2 Exacta Pool
$8,160"
Code:
pgno bet size
1 493
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 507
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0
14 0
15 0
16 0
1000.00
the 2/1 exacta wins. $1 exacta track payout was $14.90
your $1 win bet returned $6.10
our $1 exacta payout was $7.35
the flx book % is 1.21
our exacta $1 play exceeded the win by 1.20.
of course the play does not always win, so the overall exacta returns must exceed the win returns by a substantial amount.. the proof is in the data.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 05-22-2018 at 01:37 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
05-22-2018, 01:58 PM
|
#4
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
I'll mention something further, it aligns with the "late money" thread.
at 4 min to post the $1 exacta return was $6.89
at 3 min to post $7.30
and at 0 min to post it was $6.62
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
05-22-2018, 02:34 PM
|
#5
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
here are the results for another posted play
pax r4 today
the 3/7 exacta wins. $1 exacta track payout was $12.50
your $1 win bet returned $2.80
our $1 exacta payout was $5.95
the flx book % is 1.21
our exacta $1 play exceeded the win by 2.13
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
05-22-2018, 03:30 PM
|
#6
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
as good fortune would have it the four posted exacta plays on todays cards all returned much more than the win plays
$7.35 to $6.10
$5.95 to $2.80
$14.90 to $8.30
$17.40 to $10.70 
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
05-22-2018, 04:06 PM
|
#7
|
|
Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
|
That explains everything. Keep up the good work
|
|
|
|
|
05-23-2018, 10:19 PM
|
#8
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
just a note.
at a 15% track takeout
to make 10% profit by using this method of play, the $1 ex payout/ $1 win ratio payout needs to be 185 % at a win rate of 70%
to make 10% profit , at a win rate of 60% the ratio needs to be 216
..not easily done
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
05-30-2018, 06:12 PM
|
#9
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
here are the results for 193 races
* calculations based on a successful win bet
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
| Thread Tools |
|
|
| Rate This Thread |
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
