Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 06-27-2018, 01:21 PM   #31
clicknow
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan View Post
It's a bad idea to not race a horse just because it could possibly be injured.
They should just rename horse racing and call it breeding shed bingo.

All the money for champions is in the breeding and shuttling them around the globe to spread their seed. The idea of keeping the fans happy doesn't really enter the equation much these days.
clicknow is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-28-2018, 11:11 AM   #32
MonmouthParkJoe
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 876
I doubt he runs again
MonmouthParkJoe is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-28-2018, 03:46 PM   #33
Fred Mertz
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Kentucky
Posts: 433
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonmouthParkJoe View Post
I doubt he runs again

I'll bet he does. I'll be shocked if he doesn't. He's got to pad his resume', and a six race career doesn't do it from my point of view.
Fred Mertz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-28-2018, 09:19 PM   #34
MonmouthParkJoe
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 876
What resume?

The horse would get to retire as an undefeated triple crown winning son of scat daddy. Realistically, what does the horse have to gain by running again? His stud value I doubt would increase from what it is. Add to that, what doesn’t do it for you? The real end game is breeding at this point right? Not so much his resume or legacy with so few starts even if he runs two more times
MonmouthParkJoe is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-29-2018, 11:19 AM   #35
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonmouthParkJoe View Post
What resume?

The horse would get to retire as an undefeated triple crown winning son of scat daddy. Realistically, what does the horse have to gain by running again? His stud value I doubt would increase from what it is. Add to that, what doesn’t do it for you? The real end game is breeding at this point right? Not so much his resume or legacy with so few starts even if he runs two more times
I think he has something to gain, not a ton to lose. If he runs poorly his prior record will be justification for any the stud fee.

The one thing he can do to enhance values is to run figures that are a bit higher than he has done so far. Its marginally increases but it would be nice to say he ran better than a 107 Beyer figure. I would imagine anything about 115 would be nice.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-30-2018, 10:00 AM   #36
LemonSoupKid
Registered User
 
LemonSoupKid's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
Will the Travers be his foil, like Pharoah?
LemonSoupKid is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-30-2018, 04:19 PM   #37
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid View Post
Will the Travers be his foil, like Pharoah?
Only if he gets involved in a stupid speed duel like Espinoza did on AP. Maybe Baffert will enter another horse to block for him like in the Belmont.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-30-2018, 04:27 PM   #38
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonmouthParkJoe View Post
What resume?

The horse would get to retire as an undefeated triple crown winning son of scat daddy. Realistically, what does the horse have to gain by running again? His stud value I doubt would increase from what it is. Add to that, what doesn’t do it for you? The real end game is breeding at this point right? Not so much his resume or legacy with so few starts even if he runs two more times
Hasn't racing's fan base been eroded enough by having it's best athletes being retired after their 3YO season? Now the debate has become whether to even complete their sophomore season. Sad state of affairs for the sport.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-30-2018, 10:16 PM   #39
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
Only if he gets involved in a stupid speed duel like Espinoza did on AP. Maybe Baffert will enter another horse to block for him like in the Belmont.
To be fair, and Baffert has talked about this, they realized after the Derby that the horse ran his best races when put on the lead, no he didnt need it but they decided that going into the Preakness, so they were somewhat committed to the lead. Frosted just decided to sacrafice his chance at winning, being honest if Pharoah wasnt going to survive the pace neither was Frosted, and set it up for a closer.

I dont feel like Justify they feel the same, I bet they would love to track a fast horse rather than be a target but these races have had setups (rain for the most part) that dictated going early. Belmont was paceless really, in terms of any type of quality speed.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-01-2018, 11:59 AM   #40
Cholly
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 946
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
Hasn't racing's fan base been eroded enough by having it's best athletes being retired after their 3YO season? Now the debate has become whether to even complete their sophomore season. Sad state of affairs for the sport.
Cholly is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-02-2018, 07:12 PM   #41
papillon
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 282
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
Only if he gets involved in a stupid speed duel like Espinoza did on AP. Maybe Baffert will enter another horse to block for him like in the Belmont.
Well, NYRA will do its best to assist if he does.

Pharoah should have been able to survive the duel. He couldn't. It was the only one he had to face in his career IIRC (?)

If he had not been whipped at all in the stretch, does he get up for the win in the KY Derby? If the California Rule was applied, does he get up? If Firing Line had changed leads, does he get up? I honestly don't know, I do know that if he hadn't got up, people would have shrugged about his Travers loss and said that if he was good enough he would have won.

Off topic, I saw that they've discovered several previously unknown cavities in the Great Pyramid. They don't know what they are yet. Sometimes things have holes in them nobody can see for a very long time.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/...ology-science/
papillon is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-05-2018, 07:59 PM   #42
MonmouthParkJoe
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 876
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
Hasn't racing's fan base been eroded enough by having it's best athletes being retired after their 3YO season? Now the debate has become whether to even complete their sophomore season. Sad state of affairs for the sport.
I agree with you 100 percent. I’m just calling it like it is. Looks like it’s unlikely he runs in the Haskell, hasn’t had a timed workout yet. Weight isn’t right 🤦*♂️
MonmouthParkJoe is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-05-2018, 10:26 PM   #43
1GCFAN
Registered User
 
1GCFAN's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Grove City, OH
Posts: 428
Baffert said on the Steve Byk show that he had him weighed upon return to California and he weighed within a pound or two of the weight before he left.



I do find it unusual about no works because he was demanding work when stabled at CD.
1GCFAN is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-06-2018, 01:16 PM   #44
papillon
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 282
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1GCFAN View Post
Baffert said on the Steve Byk show that he had him weighed upon return to California and he weighed within a pound or two of the weight before he left.



I do find it unusual about no works because he was demanding work when stabled at CD.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...at-santa-anita

Baffert isn't the most reliable source of news about his horses.

In the above article, he says the horse has lost a lot of weight and that is way he is just "chilling" on him now. He is now saying the races took a big toll on him, which unless he was on testosterone, you would expect.

For information on testerone for recovery, it was discussed in the super trainers thread (I believe, or the other Asaro thread). I provided links.

All mammals lose significant weight from extended extreme physical exertion. It is why people bust their asses at gyms to lose weight. Three pounds did set off alarm bells with some in the racing community. No creatures other than X Men and Avengers are immune to nature. YMMV.

FWIW KY has a much laxer doping protocals then CA, which despite its problems, is the toughest in the country.

In a situation like the 3-2-3 pattern from SA Derby to KY Derby to Preakness to Belmont, you know exactly when you will be tested, and you are on a nearly perfect 3 week schedule, the gold standard for human dopers. In such a pattern, your worst race would be the one that occured shorter out than the 3 weeks.

These are inconvenient truths. They prove nothing, but they are true none the less

With OOC testing, you have no clue when you will be tested, and you have to have no steroid positives starting 6 months out from the BC, which happens to be the KY Derby. The best tactic to avoid positives in OOC tests is to wait to announce entry until just before the race when you ship, because any intelligent OOC tess will take place 3 weeks out from an announced entry.

Based on his lack of training and weight loss, the Haskell seems very unlikely. I asked if anyone here knew if the Masochistic ruled applied to Win and Your in races like the Haskell, but got not response, if it does, the Haskell would be a risk for all Derby alums.
papillon is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-06-2018, 04:08 PM   #45
1GCFAN
Registered User
 
1GCFAN's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Grove City, OH
Posts: 428
papillon:

Thanks!
I missed reading the Bloodhorse article when it came out. The loss of weight was mentioned on today's Steve Byk show. Lack of any works is alarming. AP had six works between the Belmont and Haskell according to the reporter on the Byk show.


I would think they would take him to Del Mar and out of the 114 (todays forecast) heat at SA. It is hot in San Diego but not quite that hot.
1GCFAN is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:55 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.