Mutual Pools versus casino and online wagering sites

[bisket]

I kinda thought the result would be split down the middle. I do think you need to follow horse racing regularly to be successful.

[tbwinner]

Originally Posted by bisket

I do think you need to follow horse racing regularly to be successful.

Anecdotally - I didn't place a single horse wager from about 2016 to 2019. I got a promo email from an ADW and decided to give it a whirl again. May, June, July 2019 I had some of the best results I had in my life. While my handicapping process and wagering structure remained the same as when I regularly wagered 2009-13, I think my initial results were better due to "fresh eyes" - I didn't carry internal biases towards jockeys,trainers, class levels between tracks, etc. Maybe our brains need a break time to time, reset, and return with those fresh eyes to the horse racing world. (From August on, my biases and action plays reappeared and I started losing again that year )

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Hit the Casino's maybe once or twice a year.

Hate all the distractions and noise, and outside of Blackjack I just can't shove money into a machine and hope for the best.

I think you'll find most horse racing players are pretty sharp people looking for an edge, or at least somewhat consumed with the intellectual part of handicapping and trying to figure out the best way to make money in any individual race.

I'd much rather get my brains beat in via a choice in finding a winner as opposed to simply pulling a lever or picking a number.

[tbwinner]

This thread keeps popping up despite no new posts, so people are still voting.

I figured the results would be split as they currently are. Throughout the years ive met many horseplayers despise casino gambling but also many that enjoy different forms of gambling.

I love the mental challenge of handicapping and wager construction, but certainly appreciate lower house edge options and greater "action per hour" games like craps, blackjack, and video poker. Should racetracks start comping drinks? Maybe $1 beer nights or drink coupons would encourage more trackgoers.

Bottom line it's cheaper to run a bank of slot machines and a pit of tables than put on a racing meet. I'm waiting for the day that state legislatures "decouple" the racing requirement for casinos in certain states. I imagine tracks subsidized by casinos like in WV, PA, etc. may fall off more if that happens.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Sports betting is the much better gambling option, IMO...for me anyway. I started as a passionate horseplayer, and I initially thought that nothing could compare to the intrigue of handicapping and betting on the thoroughbreds...but I was wrong. Betting on sports is just as exciting to me...and the workload is considerably less. An added bonus is that I don't feel that I have been "robbed" when I bet on sports...which is the distinct feeling that I get when betting on the horses. In sports betting I don't get the feeling that I am operating at some sort of "informational disadvantage".

When I hear people saying that handicapping sports is hard, all I can do is shake my head in disbelief. Nothing is "easy", of course...but nothing can compare with the difficulty of profitably handicapping the thoroughbreds. If the horseplayers dedicated even a fraction of the time that they have spent analyzing horses to analyzing sports teams, then they would see that handicapping sports is the much easier, and the more profitable endeavor.

I am with you and agree with what you wrote.

I have been winning, marginally, with sports betting. Though its only been legal here in AZ for a couple years so I am still learning.

I find there are a lot of advantage plays to be made in sports betting. I generally wager money line underdogs so I dont have to pay the juice.

You never never have the major score like in racing and that is the only real drawback. I feel like I am not starting up against it like in racing which is saying something because I will go out on a limb and say I know more than most people betting on horses (but nothing compared to a CAW team).

I also get offered a lot more deals, rebates, comps through sports betting yet I bet a LOT less on sports.

[lamboguy]

i am going to disagree with you guys on this sportsbetting. first of all the vigorish on many of the bets is 35-40% (basically prop bets). secondly their Artificial Intelligence can juice you to death. by best but not only example is if you are betting a game in progress. the line you have gets over juiced based on the side you bet on originally. i know this because i sat with a friend and tested it out, he bet one side and i bet the other, we both had lines that overjuiced us to the original side that we played.

the Artificial Intelligence charts all your play and if you tend to beat the closing line value, you get shut off immediately. i already know that i am going to get shut off by Caesars because i only made 1 bet with them and it was on Michigan at pick. the line is up to 2 1/2 now and i expect it to go higher.

with all the negatives in horse racing, like the after the bell, breakage, and the CAW, at least you are not going to get shut off for making wining bets.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i am going to disagree with you guys on this sportsbetting. first of all the vigorish on many of the bets is 35-40% (basically prop bets). secondly their Artificial Intelligence can juice you to death. by best but not only example is if you are betting a game in progress. the line you have gets over juiced based on the side you bet on originally. i know this because i sat with a friend and tested it out, he bet one side and i bet the other, we both had lines that overjuiced us to the original side that we played.

the Artificial Intelligence charts all your play and if you tend to beat the closing line value, you get shut off immediately. i already know that i am going to get shut off by Caesars because i only made 1 bet with them and it was on Michigan at pick. the line is up to 2 1/2 now and i expect it to go higher.

with all the negatives in horse racing, like the after the bell, breakage, and the CAW, at least you are not going to get shut off for making wining bets.

I havnet been shut off yet, though it could be coming, I am up good on NBA after killing baseball.

They are apples and oranges sports though to bet.

I get what you are saying about the vig but i am seeing stupid lines right now that are just more about the name on the jersey rather than than the actual pp's. I have made so much cash betting against the suns yet every game I have them as underdogs or slight favourites and yet they are -4, -5....

Feels to me like the lines can often be set on perception rather than the numbers which to me creates enormous value, despite the vig.

I do also agree with in game betting. Though in most sports the delay makes it so its hard to get the bet in before its no even accepted.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I havnet been shut off yet, though it could be coming, I am up good on NBA after killing baseball.

They are apples and oranges sports though to bet.

I get what you are saying about the vig but i am seeing stupid lines right now that are just more about the name on the jersey rather than than the actual pp's. I have made so much cash betting against the suns yet every game I have them as underdogs or slight favourites and yet they are -4, -5....

Feels to me like the lines can often be set on perception rather than the numbers which to me creates enormous value, despite the vig.

I do also agree with in game betting. Though in most sports the delay makes it so its hard to get the bet in before its no even accepted.

the most important thing about sports betting is being able for you to make your own lines on the games or have someone that is real good.

the sports books don't shut you off for winning, you can win and they will think you are lucky. they shut you off whether you win or lose if you beat the closing line on a consistent basis.

there are market making books that will never shut you off, they are Pinnacle, Bet Chris or Bookmaker and Circa. the other books are all predentary ones, they want no part of anyone that can beat the line.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I havnet been shut off yet, though it could be coming, I am up good on NBA after killing baseball.

They are apples and oranges sports though to bet.

I get what you are saying about the vig but i am seeing stupid lines right now that are just more about the name on the jersey rather than than the actual pp's. I have made so much cash betting against the suns yet every game I have them as underdogs or slight favourites and yet they are -4, -5....

Feels to me like the lines can often be set on perception rather than the numbers which to me creates enormous value, despite the vig.

I do also agree with in game betting. Though in most sports the delay makes it so its hard to get the bet in before its no even accepted.

That's because they set the lines based on what they think will get the public to bet the most money on both sides. They know many people still view the Suns as a very good team that just hasn't put it together (and maybe they are), so they set the line accordingly to take their money. If 80% of the money was taking the other side against the Suns each game, those lines would change in a hurry. The fact that they haven't changed says that the public isn't doing that.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by castaway01

That's because they set the lines based on what they think will get the public to bet the most money on both sides. They know many people still view the Suns as a very good team that just hasn't put it together (and maybe they are), so they set the line accordingly to take their money. If 80% of the money was taking the other side against the Suns each game, those lines would change in a hurry. The fact that they haven't changed says that the public isn't doing that.

I rarely end up on the same side as the overall public. Of course I am betting a lot of underdogs.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I rarely end up on the same side as the overall public. Of course I am betting a lot of underdogs.

You do realize this isn't true, right? If the lines weren't essentially drawing the same amount of money on both sides, they would change. It's not like racing where if you are betting, say, 6:1 shots you are going against the public, per se.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.

I believe that in comparing racing betting to sports betting re the most common bets -

it should not be ignored that the takeout in racing on a win bet - averaging somewhere around 17% is much, much greater than that of a sports book on the most common against the spread bets

the sportsbooks will hold 4.55% from all ats bets and will take just 9.1% from the winner which is why you hear so often "bet 11 to win 10"

the takeout in racing is almost double what it is in sports betting on the most common bets

this means that comparing 2 experienced and knowledgeable bettors - one in racing - and on in sports betting the fact is _________

plain and simple - it's just much easier to be a long term winner in sports betting

I think many horseplayers here and elsewhere have a love for racing and that's why they don't concentrate on sports betting where they would have a much greater chance of being long term winners


even so, not many will achieve it in sports betting - but imo the % will be much higher than in racing


.

I will preface by stating that I enjoy making an occasional wager on a sporting event...That said, while it may be 'easier' to make a successful wager on a game, or a succession of games, with the typical -110 on the bet, to break even, one must hit 52.4% of their wagers. To turn a decent profit over a period of say a year, a minimum acceptable win percentage would be around 60% .
Don't misinterpret this post. I think having some action on a sporting even makes it more interesting. But in order to be financially successful, one must be a hard hitter of the 'books'.
TO answer the thread question, I will do some gaming at a casino. Blackjack and craps. These two games are easiest to have a strategy. And have the lowest house edge.
I don't do 'games of chance'....

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I havnet been shut off yet, though it could be coming, I am up good on NBA after killing baseball.

They are apples and oranges sports though to bet.

I get what you are saying about the vig but i am seeing stupid lines right now that are just more about the name on the jersey rather than than the actual pp's. I have made so much cash betting against the suns yet every game I have them as underdogs or slight favourites and yet they are -4, -5....

Feels to me like the lines can often be set on perception rather than the numbers which to me creates enormous value, despite the vig.

I do also agree with in game betting. Though in most sports the delay makes it so its hard to get the bet in before its no even accepted.

With baseball and NBA, do you primarily bet on spreads? Or totals?
I have found that in baseball, I am better at predicting run totals than the winner of a game.
I don't do a lot of NBA. On college hoops, I see an angle which seems to work well. Once the intraconference play begins , I have noticed that with intraconference games, ranked teams visiting unranked conference opponents tend to loe vs the spread or even outright. FOr example today #18 Baylor at Ok State ...The home team was a 5 point Dog. The Cowboys took Baylor into OT and lost be 5 covering the number by one half point.
In progress now( 6.30 PM EST) Unranked Notre Dame is home to #14 Duke.
The visitors are a 13 1/2 pt favorite. Currently ND is up by 4 with 10 mins to go in the first half. That's a wait and see.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by the little guy

You do realize this isn't true, right? If the lines weren't essentially drawing the same amount of money on both sides, they would change. It's not like racing where if you are betting, say, 6:1 shots you are going against the public, per se.

Not even close to true.

There are numerous games on the NFL and CFB ledger in which 60% or more of the public are on one side.

The total $ may be even, but the number of wagers on either end are very very different.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Not even close to true.

There are numerous games on the NFL and CFB ledger in which 60% or more of the public are on one side.

The total $ may be even, but the number of wagers on either end are very very different.

The edge with betting on horse racing is you know how the public is betting by looking at the pools. For instance in the Southwest this weekend, you have the Maycocks Bay with a decided Beyer edge. On a racing day that won't attract public money you'll have speed figure players betting this horse heavily, and bettors following the sheets looking at him as an overlay. Which will make the horse look even better to speed figure bettors and value based bettors. He's a 3 year old and might have figured things out, so he might have done it easily. Me I don't like him because he's from a big money barn and they raced him twice at 2nd level tracks to break his maiden. He freaked on a muddy track in an off the turf race at FG with his only competition a Cox barn horse looking for easy races as well... The race took place on a Sunday with low level races on the entire card helping to pad that Beyer.... Southwest being one of the biggest races of the meet it will probably attract inexperienced bettors to the pool. Those bettors tend to be straight figure bettors making Maycocks Bay an even bigger overlay...