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05-18-2016, 08:00 AM
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#46
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First Time Gelding
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 642
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I can see team Exxxagertor throw a curveball in this race...the horse used to.race much closer to the lead and has tactical speed ....maybe they come out guns blazing as did Frosted 2015 Travers? I just can't see Nyquist losing but don't be surprised if you see different tactics from Exaggerator
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05-18-2016, 09:00 AM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 293
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arw629
Nyquist at 50 cents on the dollar vs this field seems like a great bet to me...he has beaten exxxagertor 4 times and exxxagertor is the main contender? Taking 4-1 on him is a horrible proposition in my mind...also, when was the last time a non KY Derby entrant won the Preakness? Unless you swallow 1-2 how can anyone else possibly make sense or make for a "good" bet
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What would you make the "money line" if it were a match race between Nyquist and Exaggerator? By money line I mean like Nyq-200, Ex +180, for example
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05-18-2016, 09:41 AM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: new york
Posts: 1,631
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i remember in tom ainslies book on handicapping tom, saying its hazardous at best to bet dollars to win nickels.
if one can't find a good case for opposition against nyquist it's best to pass on this race imo. although i myself probably won't take my advice 100%, as i always like to root for the underdog.
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05-18-2016, 12:23 PM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arw629
I can see team Exxxagertor throw a curveball in this race...the horse used to.race much closer to the lead and has tactical speed ....maybe they come out guns blazing as did Frosted 2015 Travers? I just can't see Nyquist losing but don't be surprised if you see different tactics from Exaggerator
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No way.
He has run the best two races of his life as a deep closer. Plus, he moves way up on the mud- his Santa Anita Derby race is good enough to win the Preakness.
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05-18-2016, 12:48 PM
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#50
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Just Deplorable
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lebanon, Ohio
Posts: 8,068
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What's your definition of a deep closer? In the SA Derby, he caught the leaders at the top of the stretch.
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05-18-2016, 12:57 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by rastajenk
What's your definition of a deep closer? In the SA Derby, he caught the leaders at the top of the stretch.
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How far back was he early?
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05-18-2016, 01:36 PM
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#52
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Going to be much harder for Nyquist to put away a game Collected than it was to pass a 'cooked' Danzing Candy. Different race shape. Could very well require Nyquist to either be more active or to duel late.
Exaggerator is kind of at the mercy of these others tactical speed and the race shape.
Gunning Exaggerator isn't going to really help.
Running 'his race' gives him the best shot.
If the cheaper speeds like Laoban and Uncle Lino have a good day and manage to make horses like Nyquist and Collected work too hard, then Exaggerator has a good chance to storm home a winner. If not, he has a solid shot to hit the board as in the Derby, even if a speed wins.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 05-18-2016 at 01:38 PM.
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05-18-2016, 06:12 PM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Preakness Odds
The Preakness field, in post position order, with riders and morning-line odds:
1. Cherry Wine, C. Lanerie, 20-1
2. Uncle Lino, F. Perez, 20-1
3. Nyquist, M. Guttierez, 3-5
4. Awesome Speed, J. Toledo, 30-1
5. Exaggerator, K. Desormeaux, 3-1
6. Lani, Y. Take, 30-1
7. Collected, J. Castellano, 10-1
8. Laoban, F. Geroux, 30-1
9. Abiding Star, J.D. Acosta, 30-1
10. Fellowship, J. Lezcano, 30-1
11. Stradivari, J. Velazquez, 8-1
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05-18-2016, 06:30 PM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,458
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What are the chances nyquist doesn't hit the board?
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05-18-2016, 06:43 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by tanner12oz
What are the chances nyquist doesn't hit the board?
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Slim to none, & slim.just left the building.
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05-18-2016, 07:59 PM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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Bob Baffert in the Louisville courier- journal " I'd be surprised if Nyquist doesn't win".
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05-18-2016, 08:18 PM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Secondbest
Bob Baffert in the Louisville courier- journal " I'd be surprised if Nyquist doesn't win".
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Baffert had AP last year & knows exactly what O'Neil has this year.
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05-18-2016, 08:34 PM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
Baffert had AP last year & knows exactly what O'Neil has this year.
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Looks that way.
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05-18-2016, 10:45 PM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,643
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by tanner12oz
What are the chances nyquist doesn't hit the board?
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3-4 % maybe more if track is really bad - it all depends on the break, and Nyquist has not missed it yet.
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05-18-2016, 11:09 PM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,626
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by tanner12oz
What are the chances nyquist doesn't hit the board?
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I would not bet much on it but it happens in races of all types and probably more frequently than people think. Who would have thought Mohaymen would tank the FL Derby? Chrome in the Belmont? Orb in the Preakness? ...among countless others? New track, new conditions, a few new challengers. That said, I will only leave him off a small trifecta rec bet. Much better chance he tanks the Belmont but he probably skips it if he loses this race.
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