Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-10-2016, 12:59 PM   #31
VigorsTheGrey
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Of course there’s always a chance that a couple of early speed types will be entered in the Preakness. But we’ve already witnessed how Nyquist handled Danzig Candy @ 1 ¼ miles. So running in a similar fashion for 1 3/16 miles shouldn’t be an issue, and if there’s no early speed to speak of, Nyquist can simply wire them.
.
.
sharp azteca - nyquist exacta box, wires the field...
VigorsTheGrey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-10-2016, 02:05 PM   #32
charm city whizz
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 301
Has to be the fastest any horse has shipped up to pimlico, when owners make that turn onto winners ave they may wonder why they have thier multi million dollar horse lingering in such a bad neighborhood for 2 weeks, im actually floored by it

With that said pimlico is just an awesome place to attend live racing
charm city whizz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-10-2016, 03:41 PM   #33
PowerUpPaynter
Registered User
 
PowerUpPaynter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 1,312
72 times in 140 Preakness' the favorite has won and the longest odds ever for a Preakness winner was 23-1
PowerUpPaynter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-10-2016, 07:38 PM   #34
Rex Phinney
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Posts: 1,116
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I think he'd have a better shot in the Preakness to be honest, smaller field to navigate.
He'll never get there on that track, by the time he starts moving Nyquist is going to be long gone on the front end. Plus the smaller the field size the more likely we are to see noone challenge on the front end.
Rex Phinney is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-10-2016, 08:22 PM   #35
clocker7
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 690
There couldn't have been a more rabid fan of Nyquist than I going into the KD. But I must say, his effort there seemed to be way more taxing than what he expericenced in the FL Derby.

Those who heavily bet against him in the KD committed suicide. But those who judiciously pick their spots in the Preakness could make amends. A hundred bucks or so going against the common wisdom is worth it, imo.

Last edited by clocker7; 05-10-2016 at 08:26 PM.
clocker7 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-10-2016, 08:59 PM   #36
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 7,070
Quote:
Originally Posted by clocker7
There couldn't have been a more rabid fan of Nyquist than I going into the KD. But I must say, his effort there seemed to be way more taxing than what he expericenced in the FL Derby.

Those who heavily bet against him in the KD committed suicide. But those who judiciously pick their spots in the Preakness could make amends. A hundred bucks or so going against the common wisdom is worth it, imo.
I agree that this was a taxing effort.

One thing about this situation, however, is that we already know that Reddam and O'Neill do not have Triple Crown fever. They pulled I'll Have Another out and did the right thing for the horse. So if you see them running in the Preakness, there's probably a somewhat greater likelihood than with other connections that the horse is 100 percent.

I'm likely to bet Collected if the track is fast and Exaggerator if it isn't.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-11-2016, 01:39 AM   #37
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 15,516
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
I agree that this was a taxing effort.

One thing about this situation, however, is that we already know that Reddam and O'Neill do not have Triple Crown fever. They pulled I'll Have Another out and did the right thing for the horse. So if you see them running in the Preakness, there's probably a somewhat greater likelihood than with other connections that the horse is 100 percent.

I'm likely to bet Collected if the track is fast and Exaggerator if it isn't.
I beg to differ. Nyquist’s race in the Derby was on par with his current ability, and only further demonstrated its apparent will to Win. Other then following a rapid pace throughout on what most people believed to be a very fast racing surface, Nyquist had a clear run and didn’t experience any unusual racing abnormalities that would have caused additional effort and physical strain.

Beyond that I’m not sure how many people noticed the run-out after the finish line, but I certainly would have expected to see Exaggerator run right on by Nyquist based on its powerful closing move. Instead, we saw Nyquist continue on the lead with Exaggerator looking like the one who was losing energy from a arduous final run at the leader.

I also believe that Nyquist has a conditioning edge based on it’s racing schedule: Having established a solid foundation last year and then not returning to race for 3 ½ months this year. Then we have to consider having raced only twice before the Derby with 1 ½ months off between those 2 races and over a month off before the Derby. I think O’Neill has had brilliant strategy for getting this versatile horse through the rigors of a TC campaign.

Of course, anything can happen during the next 5 weeks that might interrupt or prevent Nyquist from achieving that goal. In the back of my mind I always reminisce about what happened to Spectacular Bid prior to the Belmont Stakes. If any horse could have been considered a lock to win the TC it might have been the “Bid”. Many believe as I do one that it was one of the Classiest animals to ever hit the race track and on par with all the great ones from the 70’s.
.
.
Nitro is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-11-2016, 02:12 PM   #38
clocker7
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 690
I think that Nyquist exerted down the stretch last Saturday, far more than he did in the FL Derby. It was his latter effort that gave me so much confidence leading into Louisville. Heading to Pimlico ... not so much.
clocker7 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-11-2016, 02:27 PM   #39
tucker6
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 8,721
Quote:
Originally Posted by clocker7
I think that Nyquist exerted down the stretch last Saturday, far more than he did in the FL Derby. It was his latter effort that gave me so much confidence leading into Louisville. Heading to Pimlico ... not so much.
agree. I thought Nyquist topped out with a 1/16 to go, and that is why Mario kept looking back for challengers. Luckily for him, I believe Exaggerator topped out as well with around a 1/16 to go.
tucker6 is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-11-2016, 03:02 PM   #40
SecretAgentMan
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
Quote:
Originally Posted by tucker6
agree. I thought Nyquist topped out with a 1/16 to go, and that is why Mario kept looking back for challengers. Luckily for him, I believe Exaggerator topped out as well with around a 1/16 to go.



After the finish line, Nyquist kept going, & Exaggerator & SBN were closingb& still couldn't pass Nyquist after the wire. Nyquist might have been getting tired, but I couldn't see it. Nyquist for some reason will.not allow a horse to go by him.
SecretAgentMan is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-11-2016, 04:17 PM   #41
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 103,085
We have not seen the best of Nyquist yet.
Prediction - Preakness Beyer - 108-110.

Belmont ordering extra hot dogs for the big day in June.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-11-2016, 06:01 PM   #42
Rex Phinney
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Posts: 1,116
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
We have not seen the best of Nyquist yet.
Prediction - Preakness Beyer - 108-110.

Belmont ordering extra hot dogs for the big day in June.
I'm going to agree.

What part of the Derby was so taxing? He got a perfect trip, I mean absolutely perfect, and he ran the entire stretch without even a single horse coming within a length of him.

Now he is going to a shorter distance and a track that is even friendlier to speed, he rolls in the Preakness. This year's 3YO look even worse than last years.
Rex Phinney is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-11-2016, 06:11 PM   #43
clocker7
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 690
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rex Phinney
I'm going to agree.

What part of the Derby was so taxing? He got a perfect trip, I mean absolutely perfect, and he ran the entire stretch without even a single horse coming within a length of him.

Now he is going to a shorter distance and a track that is even friendlier to speed, he rolls in the Preakness. This year's 3YO look even worse than last years.
Last year's crop--aside from AP--was pathetic. What did it do in the BCC ... or since? I didn't see anything in Dubai that would change my mind. I'd put up Exaggerator against any of the crud from 2015.

What I remember seeing is Nyquist being spanked pretty good when he seemed to be laboring a bit. Granted, he deserves props for running so fast early. But I question about how depleting his effort was.
clocker7 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-18-2016, 08:30 AM   #44
Andrick
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
I think only the horses that ran in the derby should be allowed in the Preakness & Belmont, while others don't agree with me.

We would have had another 5 triple crown winners if that was the case, probably more. Horses like Birdstone coming fresh in to the Belmont after getting destroyed by Smarty Jones IMO isn't fair.
I just read another post of yours a short while ago saying that racing wasn't far from being a dead sport. This post from you here is encouraging it to take one step more towards this "dead sport" becoming a reality. Think of the trickle down effect of your suggestion and what kind of negative financial impact it would have towards the track itself, and subsequently how that effects the racing at Belmont as a whole.

As far as being "fair" what races are actually "fair" based on what you describe here where we see all the participating horses enter the gates at equal conditioning? Every weekend we see horses competing against each other at various points in their form cycle. Horses are coming in off a layoff all the time and competing against others who are in their 3rd race of their cycle. Those are in turn competing against other horses who may be 6 or 7 races into their cycle and haven't had an extended break for months. Are those races not "fair" as well based on your reasoning?
Andrick is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-18-2016, 08:48 AM   #45
arw629
First Time Gelding
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 634
Nyquist at 50 cents on the dollar vs this field seems like a great bet to me...he has beaten exxxagertor 4 times and exxxagertor is the main contender? Taking 4-1 on him is a horrible proposition in my mind...also, when was the last time a non KY Derby entrant won the Preakness? Unless you swallow 1-2 how can anyone else possibly make sense or make for a "good" bet
arw629 is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
How do you prefer your Coffee !?
Cream and Sugar - 28.57%
30 Votes
Cream only - 20.00%
21 Votes
Black - 41.90%
44 Votes
Decaf - 9.52%
10 Votes
Espresso - 12.38%
13 Votes
Starbucks etc... - 9.52%
10 Votes
Other - 23.81%
25 Votes
Total Votes: 105
This poll is closed.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:56 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2020 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.