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Old 05-08-2016, 10:13 PM   #1
sbcaris
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Buckpasser in the X angle

To all: My Buckpasser in the X angle which also requires a horse to qualify on my final fraction indicator has now accounted for 7 of the last 20 Derby winners in which at least one qualifier started in the run for the roses. That's 35% winners from only 8.4% of the starters which gives a powerful impact value of 4.16. Horses qualifying on this angle are winning the roses 4 times more often than statistical expectation.

Also strong is the place impact value which is now 4.76 (8 winners in the last 20 years in which at least one Derby starter qualified.

Winners: since 1978 are: Unbridled, Real Quiet, Funny Cide, Super Saver, Orb, California Chrome and Nyquist

Place Finishers since 1978 are: Easy Goer, Summer Squall, Prairie Bayou, Tejano Run, Cavonnier, Aptitude, Empire Maker, and Bodemeister.

The above is a very powerful indicator for success in the Derby.

It also is powerful in the Preakness and Belmont.
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Old 05-08-2016, 10:20 PM   #2
CincyHorseplayer
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Stan I am fan of your work but at this point who cares? Reality and people in general are settling in on favorites winning and they have ground.

The Derby has all of the sudden become the most unbettable race of the year. There is distance uncertainty but favorites always win. A complete disaster and unattractive race.

I've got a rating that has picked winners of the last 5. I could give a shit less. This favorite parade in this particular race is pure doom. Not shout outs for your product.
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Old 05-08-2016, 11:23 PM   #3
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Patience. Chalk won't win this thing every year. We just happened to have worthy chalk recently. See Stanley's notes. It's been Buckpasser or Raise A Native almost every year. Sometimes the exacta like this year. It might be chalk but if it's winning then it doesn't matter what the odds are. Paradigms. We simply had a long favorite drought. Just wait for the Belmont and hopefully pounce.
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Old 05-08-2016, 11:34 PM   #4
VigorsTheGrey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
Patience. Chalk won't win this thing every year. We just happened to have worthy chalk recently. See Stanley's notes. It's been Buckpasser or Raise A Native almost every year. Sometimes the exacta like this year. It might be chalk but if it's winning then it doesn't matter what the odds are. Paradigms. We simply had a long favorite drought. Just wait for the Belmont and hopefully pounce.
Isn't Mr Prospector the overall best for total winners in Derby and elsewhere?
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Old 05-08-2016, 11:45 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
Isn't Mr Prospector the overall best for total winners in Derby and elsewhere?
Raise A Native through Mr.P or not has been Derby dominant. I think we simply had a paradigm that the Derby had to have bombers. There was no logical upset horse this year. Just gotta take what's handed to you or skip the race. Sometimes the best bet is no bet at all. I lucked out and made some small change but could have loaded up if not stuck on that exotics bomber paradigm.
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Old 05-08-2016, 11:52 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by f2tornado
Raise A Native through Mr.P or not has been Derby dominant. I think we simply had a paradigm that the Derby had to have bombers. There was no logical upset horse this year. Just gotta take what's handed to you or skip the race. Sometimes the best bet is no bet at all. I lucked out and made some small change but could have loaded up if not stuck on that exotics bomber paradigm.
I made the same exotics bomber paradigm mistake myself and today I'm suffering a kind of Derby Day-after non-alcohol related funk, as a result of it...I really liked the top pair but kept saying to myself "I can get 2-1 anytime, why take it here?"

So I departed from my original betting strategy which I posted....I'm kind of autistic when it comes to crowds...and the distractions and the prices threw me off...

Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 05-08-2016 at 11:56 PM.
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Old 05-09-2016, 08:53 AM   #7
bks
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Stan I am fan of your work but at this point who cares? Reality and people in general are settling in on favorites winning and they have ground.

The Derby has all of the sudden become the most unbettable race of the year. There is distance uncertainty but favorites always win. A complete disaster and unattractive race.

I've got a rating that has picked winners of the last 5. I could give a shit less. This favorite parade in this particular race is pure doom. Not shout outs for your product.
The issue isn't with favorites/non-favorites. It's that CA 3-y-o stock towers over that of all other regions in the country and has for years, and finally people are coming around to it . I have no idea why, but it's the case.
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Old 05-09-2016, 04:55 PM   #8
depalma113
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"15 of the last 23 Kentucky Derby winners have run the opening half mile of their previous 1 1/8 mile prep in :47 3/5's or under, while finishing the race in 1:02 3/5's or less.

This year only Nyquist and Mojesto fit that angle."

It is now 16 out of the last 24.

Since 2003 there have been 44 horses that fit that angle, 9 have won.

Last edited by depalma113; 05-09-2016 at 04:57 PM.
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Old 05-10-2016, 10:41 AM   #9
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Favorites winning could be a simple consequence of the new point system, although it's probably too early to tell. It makes sense, for the same reason that half the field was comprised of sustainers.

I considered the Buckpasser X angle, but Nyquist was also the best horse on paper from various other fundamental handicapping angles.
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Old 05-10-2016, 12:17 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Bryan
Favorites winning could be a simple consequence of the new point system, although it's probably too early to tell. It makes sense, for the same reason that half the field was comprised of sustainers.

I considered the Buckpasser X angle, but Nyquist was also the best horse on paper from various other fundamental handicapping angles.



Danzig Candy did exactly what I thought he would, go out fast like a rabbit use to before the point system came to be, & he did it from post #20. He set fast fractions, & like Palace Malice in 2013, the year the point system started, the pace up front burnt everyone close to it out, & Orb closed to win.

The only closer in this years derby was Exaggerator, are they saying he's the best possible closer? And with the fast pace up front, its testament to how good Nyquist really is, with those fast fractions, he still went by Gun Runner & Danzig & won the race.

IMO, the point system has nothing to do with it, I think its just better breeding.
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Old 05-10-2016, 01:14 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
Danzig Candy did exactly what I thought he would, go out fast like a rabbit use to before the point system came to be, & he did it from post #20. He set fast fractions, & like Palace Malice in 2013, the year the point system started, the pace up front burnt everyone close to it out, & Orb closed to win.

The only closer in this years derby was Exaggerator, are they saying he's the best possible closer? And with the fast pace up front, its testament to how good Nyquist really is, with those fast fractions, he still went by Gun Runner & Danzig & won the race.

IMO, the point system has nothing to do with it, I think its just better breeding.
Yeah, I think the race played out more or less as expected. What derby qualifying system was in place prior to the earnings system in 1986?

I'm not sure about breeding...here we are looking for the x-factor and other pedigree angles. Maybe there is something to that? I just don't know.
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Old 05-13-2016, 08:20 PM   #12
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With the Preakness Contenders ... Anyone passing Buckpasser or RAN ??
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Old 05-14-2016, 12:38 PM   #13
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It sounds like we all have come up with some very good angles for this race. Like I said myself I have a compound rating for dirt routes that has picked the last 5 and more importantly have found that the big race for the rating is not worth anymore at 9f than a prior race at 8.5. That is a breakthrough in perception IMO.

But again how much credit can any of us take when there is this level of a favorite parade? It has made the win vs value crowd to gain some ground to talk trash and I don't like it!

But seriously. On one hand it's great that as a collective whole we have nailed this race down to where it makes sense routinely. But on the other, and I said this before the Derby, it is anticlimactic when we start seeing these 2yo's coming out in earnest in late summer, watch them stretch out and mature and show flashes of brilliance, then finally when we are ready to burst with anticipation we get this...

I agree with F2 though it is just law of averages evening out. We will all be there to pounce when the pendulum swings back the other way.

BKS I started playing in 1996 so I am well aware of the prowess of Cali horses overall but that is an oversimplification!
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Old 05-14-2016, 08:55 PM   #14
sbcaris
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buck or RAN

Biscuit: In the Preakness the following horses carry Buckpasser in the X passing position:
Awesome Speed, Collected, Dazzling Gem, Uncle Lino and Nyquist.

The following carry the Raise A Native sire line:
Collected, Dazzling Gem, Exaggerator, and Gun Runner.
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Old 05-15-2016, 06:47 PM   #15
The Biscuit
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sbcaris
Biscuit: In the Preakness the following horses carry Buckpasser in the X passing position:
Awesome Speed, Collected, Dazzling Gem, Uncle Lino and Nyquist.

The following carry the Raise A Native sire line:
Collected, Dazzling Gem, Exaggerator, and Gun Runner.

Appreciate the work bro !!!!. On a pedigree chart how do you recognize the passing genes ???
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