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Old 10-30-2020, 06:46 PM   #136
Poindexter
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Join Date: Mar 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Jeff,

Thanks for that detailed explanation.

I understand how they are using tote information to gain an advantage finding overlays within all the pools/combinations late in the betting.

I understand how blending the real odds with a model can yield a more accurate odds line than the model alone.

What I don't really understand how that more accurate odds line translates into an advantage.

Let's say my home made model calculates that a horse should be 2-1 and he's on the board at 6-1.

My model says he's a huge overlay and I should play him.

Now let's say I blend the live odds in some way based on experience and it tells me a more accurate odds line on that horse is 4-1 not 2-1.

Either way, I'm going to play the horse. So what was the benefit?

The only thing I can think of is having data that suggests your model does better finding overlays in certain odds ranges than others or where blending the model odds and live odds reduces the theoretical overlay by enough that you pass the bet because there's not enough margin of safety in the bet.
I am also going to guess that when they refined their betting lines to as be as accurate as they can make it, the other things they (whatever they may be) did, become more beneficial. In other words using solely their own line had them so far a way from being profitable, no matter what refinements they made they could not climb the mountain. Once they ironed out a lot of mistakes in their line, their line became a lot closer to a actual fair line, and that opened the door for them to learn how to become profitable in this game. Pure speculation by me but that makes more sense to me than assuming they couldn't beat the game, they learned to blend their line and then all of sudden their overlays became easy money.
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