*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[green80]

coach, since you mentioned the consensus picks doing well I thought I would try them at Oaklawn today, and 1st race top pick was a $17 dollar horse and 8-1-4 straight trifecta

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by green80

coach, since you mentioned the consensus picks doing well I thought I would try them at Oaklawn today, and 1st race top pick was a $17 dollar horse and 8-1-4 straight trifecta

I've never done much at Oaklawn...too many horses coming off layoff for my handicapping.

I see one at GGF today:

I'll try my luck in the 10th with NATIVE CHIEFTAN 12-1 ML WITH A -- ex box.

[green80]

You're right, I usually use platinum and no power # on a lot of horses at OP but seems like it still hits at a pretty good rate. Today tried consensus and it had a $17 horse in the 1st and a $56.80 in the 7th, just betting any of the consensus horses ML over 10/1.

[NorCalGreg]

Sounds right, Mike...I started checking the trainer's record on layoffs--if he's got a profitable ROI or 20% win I go ahead and include him.

I looked at Riilito and GGX with a quick gander through the races. I came up with a simple way to rate the pace shape--let's see if it's any good. If it shows promise I'll explain it-no problem.

RIILITO

4TH EX--- OUTLAW BY NATURE-CAN'T DO THE DANCE

GGX

4TH SMILE FOR ME 7-2

6TH CEDARS OF LEBANON 4-1 6-8-11 EX BOX

8TH TOP OF THE GAME 7-2

9TH SLOANE GARDEN 9-1

10th SOUND JUDGEMENT 15-1

[mmmjjjj]

6TH CEDARS OF LEBANON 4-1

8TH TOP OF THE GAME 7-2



hey greg u are running the risk of going favourite
in all of these races



heads up

good luck

[NorCalGreg]

Uh huh...especially since Kent D is aboard the 8th race horse TOP OF THE GAME (I mistakenly listed him in the 7th)

[green80]

mmmjjjj


I don't know what you are doing but you were right about those horses being bet down

[mmmjjjj]

feb 10 2020

yes been doing this a long time

made a concrete decision one day to begin to analyze patterns of toteboard
action what it might read on race day

created simulation program that is untouched in the industry
and really not known to the public

i have been silently watching the last 10 years until recently
i couldn't really stand to see what i was reading here and listening to
from other posters ( especially when it came to prices )

the biggest lie u will ever here is " if i get 3-1 or so at post i l will bet "

or " i need value to bet my horse"

there is no true value anymore so to speak but that is a different converstaion for a different day .

u should always know in advance what the odds will be contrary to popular belief .

when u do this for a living u get to notice all the lies of pretenders
and players alike

but also wanted to try and help the regular players have some sort of edge
in this really difficult game


anyway i do it all the time and i am pretty much on the money
95 percent of the time . the bots beat me after the gate opens and
big syndicates i can't see coming even though i know most of them.

they are still a problem because their evolving daily with more and more
computer geeks

anyway if u want send me a card that interests u and then tell me who
u are thinking of betting and i will private message u what i think the layout
will be according to what u have after scratches .

i'm old school and never built a website or know nothing about programing
but what i do know is where the board swings way in advance .

i do charge a fee for players daily .
players who get the most out of it are ones who don't have time to sit
in front of the computer all day and watch the races or just plain want to
know when and where their value will come from way in advance

anyway here are todays horses who will be drastically bet down from
their lines . whether u see it or not is no worries but trust in what i am telling u and believe me when i say it happens whether u want to or not.
simulations are extremely powerful.

pending no scratches and if there are then it gets worse

mahoning valley

race 11 --- mystosis mystique 6-1 will go chalk here or close second

turf paradise

race 6 -- me first 8-1 -- will be outright chalkk

parx

race 3----tattered 6-1 --- will most likely be chalkk
race 5----izzadora bella 5-1 will also likely be chalkk

anyway thanks for the shout out

mm

[mmmjjjj]

maybe start with getting the race right

mahoning valley race 8 see above

[coacht]

MM,

Very interesting post. Question - once you have determined the chalk do you avoid betting them?

Also, do you give every horse in the race a new race odds?

Just curious how you apply to actually betting the race.

Thanks

[sharkey11]

you said . when you do this for a living you get to notice all the lies of the pretenders and players alike . just what is it you do for a living may i ask .

[MONEY]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

feb 10 2020

yes been doing this a long time

made a concrete decision one day to begin to analyze patterns of toteboard
action what it might read on race day

created simulation program that is untouched in the industry
and really not known to the public

i have been silently watching the last 10 years until recently
i couldn't really stand to see what i was reading here and listening to
from other posters ( especially when it came to prices )

the biggest lie u will ever here is " if i get 3-1 or so at post i l will bet "

or " i need value to bet my horse"

there is no true value anymore so to speak but that is a different converstaion for a different day .

u should always know in advance what the odds will be contrary to popular belief .

when u do this for a living u get to notice all the lies of pretenders
and players alike

but also wanted to try and help the regular players have some sort of edge
in this really difficult game


anyway i do it all the time and i am pretty much on the money
95 percent of the time . the bots beat me after the gate opens and
big syndicates i can't see coming even though i know most of them.

they are still a problem because their evolving daily with more and more
computer geeks

anyway if u want send me a card that interests u and then tell me who
u are thinking of betting and i will private message u what i think the layout
will be according to what u have after scratches .

i'm old school and never built a website or know nothing about programing
but what i do know is where the board swings way in advance .

i do charge a fee for players daily .
players who get the most out of it are ones who don't have time to sit
in front of the computer all day and watch the races or just plain want to
know when and where their value will come from way in advance

anyway here are todays horses who will be drastically bet down from
their lines . whether u see it or not is no worries but trust in what i am telling u and believe me when i say it happens whether u want to or not.
simulations are extremely powerful.

pending no scratches and if there are then it gets worse

mahoning valley

race 11 --- mystosis mystique 6-1 will go chalk here or close second

turf paradise

race 6 -- me first 8-1 -- will be outright chalkk

parx

race 3----tattered 6-1 --- will most likely be chalkk
race 5----izzadora bella 5-1 will also likely be chalkk

anyway thanks for the shout out

mm

So you are here because you have something to sell.

I looked up two of your horses.
At Parx R3. #4, Tattered & at Mahoning R8. #11, Myositis Mystique,
both of them have the top Brisnet Prime power rating, that usually lowers
the odds a bit. I did not look at the other two because Brisnet free PPs are not available for them.

I don't watch the tote, I pick my races, choose the horses I like, make my bets at the track and check for the sad results later, then repeat.

Good Luck

[NorCalGreg]

I'm just curious who you're referring to as "liars and pretenders"?

Lying and pretending WHAT?

-NCG

[mmmjjjj]

so i will address everyone here separately but all in one thread

coach --- no i do not avoid bettng them if i think the edge is significant
--- yes i assign everyone else a new odds parameters
--- but i ball park it through past experience
--- once i discover where the public is going i assess the possible play in
terms of acceptable odds for me , if he is not the play itself


sharkey--- i am self employed and have been creating lines for the past 10 years
-- i have been playing the races 30 years
----- but the truth is it doesn't matter what i do . i could be selling dickie dee ice cream--
what should matter is , is there authenticity to what i am talking about
or not ??

money --- bris prime power has nothing to do with how i come up with my simulations
it is a weak number that has proven to be a negative r.o.i for the last 30 years .
since they have alot of components that i sometimes use in my simulations of course
some horses will shadow my selections,but if u stick to that theory , every bris prime should go close to fav
all the time, and we both know that is the furthest thing from the truth

------- and why would you continue to do something that isn't working for you?? just curious??
it is not to meant as an insult really



greg----- im not taking a shot at true players

liars and pretenders are those who claim to know what they are talking about on certain threads
and always seem to think they are the only ones with the right methodology,system, or algorithm
that beats the races.

------ also alot of the publications out there especially the big ones charging an outrageous amount of money
for information that is not pertinent to players becoming successful at the racetrack. all they are doing is trying
to pay their payrolls and inflate their wallets.

eg ?? why is it that drf does not allow you to access past performances for free once the races are over for the day .

wouldn't it be in their best interest. a serious player would love to go back and check where he might have made mistakes and do
some improving . but no if u want to get the info you have to pay for it ??? absolutely insane

and most other top publications do the same thing .

why ?? because they know that once a person starts to dig and dig they will find that it is not in the software, files , system, or anything else that they have to offer. those are just a tool and the rest is how u apply it that makes u a successful bettor.


anyway hope haven't offended anyone , it was only my take and another view

[MONEY]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

money --- bris prime power has nothing to do with how i come up with my simulations
it is a weak number that has proven to be a negative r.o.i for the last 30 years .
since they have alot of components that i sometimes use in my simulations of course
some horses will shadow my selections,but if u stick to that theory , every bris prime should go close to fav
all the time, and we both know that is the furthest thing from the truth

------- and why would you continue to do something that isn't working for you?? just curious??
it is not to meant as an insult really

I don't use the Brisnet PPs, thought that you might and was wrong.

I only use stats that I keep by race size and two other factors.
K.I.S.S."keep it simple stupid" is my method of handicapping.

Truthfully I do pretty well considering that I gamble almost daily as a pass time.