Good Magic

[PowerUpPaynter]

Is it just me or does anyone else feel he's most likely to end up like McKraken or Carpe Diem... etc

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Is it just me or does anyone else feel he's most likely to end up like McKraken or Carpe Diem... etc

I think Classic Empire would be a better potential conparison.

[PowerUpPaynter]

i am probably putting him in the winners circle saying this but I think there is a 0.0% chance he can win this race.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

i am probably putting him in the winners circle saying this but I think there is a 0.0% chance he can win this race.

He's a Raise A Native, Buckpasser-x, and has no trouble running wide so his chances are above zero. If this horse was trained by anyone but Chad Brown I would not be as supportive given his Brisnet LP figure and raw 3/8th time in the Bluegrass were just shy of best best contender values. Chad Brown simply knows how to crank a horse for a big run. I think he will be well positioned at the 3/4 pole to make his move. If he can put himself several lengths ahead of the likes of Audible at the mile pole then he may have just enough in the tank to pull it off.

[señorclipclop]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He's a Raise A Native, Buckpasser-x, and has no trouble running wide so his chances are above zero. If this horse was trained by anyone but Chad Brown I would not be as supportive given his Brisnet LP figure and raw 3/8th time in the Bluegrass were just shy of best best contender values. Chad Brown simply knows how to crank a horse for a big run. I think he will be well positioned at the 3/4 pole to make his move. If he can put himself several lengths ahead of the likes of Audible at the mile pole then he may have just enough in the tank to pull it off.

Agreed. He's my #1.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He's a Raise A Native, Buckpasser-x, and has no trouble running wide so his chances are above zero. If this horse was trained by anyone but Chad Brown I would not be as supportive given his Brisnet LP figure and raw 3/8th time in the Bluegrass were just shy of best best contender values. Chad Brown simply knows how to crank a horse for a big run. I think he will be well positioned at the 3/4 pole to make his move. If he can put himself several lengths ahead of the likes of Audible at the mile pole then he may have just enough in the tank to pull it off.

thats true but hes gonna have to take a big step forward from that 95 beyer... Prob gonna take a 104 or 105 to win this race... very strong crop

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

thats true but hes gonna have to take a big step forward from that 95 beyer... Prob gonna take a 104 or 105 to win this race... very strong crop

No disagreement there... although I largely gave up looking at BSFs for the Derby long ago. The best last out BSF rarely wins the race. Chrome and Big Brown are the only ones that come to mind. That would be two out the last 15 renewals. You would have received $13 back on your $30 worth of $2 win bets. Enjoy that -56% ROI. Your best last out Brisnet figure is better at 5-29 but that still nets you -15%. I expect GM to run back to his Breeders Cup figure. I'm just not convinced it's enough. I like Vino Rosso a little more at the moment but I have both horses covered sufficiently in the future wager pools.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

No disagreement there... although I largely gave up looking at BSFs for the Derby long ago. The best last out BSF rarely wins the race. Chrome and Big Brown are the only ones that come to mind. That would be two out the last 15 renewals. You would have received $13 back on your $30 worth of $2 win bets. Enjoy that -56% ROI. Your best last out Brisnet figure is better at 5-29 but that still nets you -15%. I expect GM to run back to his Breeders Cup figure. I'm just not convinced it's enough. I like Vino Rosso a little more at the moment but I have both horses covered sufficiently in the future wager pools.

true but over the past 10 years only mine that bird improved by 10 points from his final prep to derby winning fig. i think its asking a lot. not so much concerned about who ran the best last out fig but how much room for improvement is there.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Is it just me or does anyone else feel he's most likely to end up like McKraken or Carpe Diem... etc

I just handicapped the race using Timeform PP's and I think he will be my main play or close to it. I feel like there is still a forward move in there and his Bluegrass is better than it appears. He middle moved while wide onto a very legit pace. A lessor horse would have cracked. Brown can get them ready for the big days and he may get overlooked at 12/1 or so. I will build most my tickets around him and Bolt.

Plush I cashed good on him in the BC so I got that sentimental thing as well.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I thought his BCJ Beyer was inflated. I didn't think much of that performance even though I respect him for beating some I liked better(on my route rating he got a 199. Bolt Doro got a 218 in the Frontrunner by comparison). And the 2 performances this year I thought were mediocre. Flameaway I had respect for but he's been getting slower in each prep and GM struggled to get by him after he dueled the whole way. If this were on turf I'd have more fear of Chad Brown but not here. This guy is 2nd tier in my book.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I just handicapped the race using Timeform PP's and I think he will be my main play or close to it. I feel like there is still a forward move in there and his Bluegrass is better than it appears. He middle moved while wide onto a very legit pace. A lessor horse would have cracked. Brown can get them ready for the big days and he may get overlooked at 12/1 or so. I will build most my tickets around him and Bolt.

Plush I cashed good on him in the BC so I got that sentimental thing as well.

i doubt he'll be 12-1.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

true but over the past 10 years only mine that bird improved by 10 points from his final prep to derby winning fig. i think its asking a lot. not so much concerned about who ran the best last out fig but how much room for improvement is there.

I'll Have Another had an even lesser figure than GM. He went from a 5th best last out 94 BSF to roses. Barbaro was 13 points behind Sinister Minister. Giacomo was 25 points behind Bellamy Road. Beyer absolutely blows chunks when it comes to rating 9F preps. I wouldn't be shocked if just using the fastest raw time has a higher Derby impact value than highest BSF.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

i doubt he'll be 12-1.

There are a lot of good horse this year. If he is lower than horses like Justify and Mendelssohn are higher than we are suspecting.

Justify 3/1
Magnum Moon 5/1
Mendelssohn 6/1
Audible 8/1
Bolt DOro 8/1
Good Magic 12/1
Vino Rosso 12/1

I just clicked off a lot of points in that tote board, and there are still 13 others

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

i doubt he'll be 12-1.

Wouldn't surprise me.

Justify is gonna take a lot of money, as will Audible, Mendelssohn, Magnum, and Bolt. At best, he'll be 5th favorite and upwards to 7th choice come post time.

Gotta a feeling Justify goes off at 5/2. It is Baffert. It is Mike Smith. He won the Santa Anita Derby handily by a widening margin and has yet to really be tested as an undefeated horse. His figures are getting better as the distances increase, and while you can point to a number of questions with 'curses' and distance, there isn't a single horse in the field that has answered the 10 furlong bell till it rings the first Saturday in May.

I think Audible will end up as 2nd favorite. His Holy Bull and Florida Derby were awfully impressive.

Justify, Audible, Magnum Moon, and Mendelssohn will all take more money than Good Magic. And likely Bolt will as well. That leaves Vino Rosso, Noble Indy, Solomini, and My Boy Jack as possible contenders for 6th, 7th, 8th favorites.

Thus, I can certainly see 12/1 on GM. Sounds crazy, until you really break it down.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

There are a lot of good horse this year. If he is lower than horses like Justify and Mendelssohn are higher than we are suspecting.

Justify 3/1
Magnum Moon 5/1
Mendelssohn 6/1
Audible 8/1
Bolt DOro 8/1
Good Magic 12/1
Vino Rosso 12/1

I just clicked off a lot of points in that tote board, and there are still 13 others

i was thinking high single digits. Chad Brown is worth a few points even if it isn't turf. Justify and Mendelsohn will be too low for me. At 12 GM is a bet. I hope your right. After Justify I like him best.