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TFUS Pace Projector—and "finish positions"—now on DRFBets
I checked out the new availability of TimeformUS Pace Projector on DRFBets after getting a promo email alert today. It's formatted a bit different than the standard version you get with TFUS, but the main thing is, it shows a second projection labeled "finish positions" as well.
No explanation for this, but it seems like change in implied use case from all the TFUS literature. Is this actually a final outcome projection? Or just the late pace projection? Would the final outcome projection be an independent model, or just a sum of the early and late pace projections?
I use the early vs. late profile as a basic screen in my process. Nothing fancy—if you have three early runners with nearly the same score, you favor the ones with the higher late scores to hold up. Not quite the same as just adding early and late and ranking them, which seems like a cruder measure to take at face value for predicting the final outcome, albeit a logical one.
Ironically, it would be more handy for me to have a late running projection to compare with the early than it would to have a final outcome projection, especially with an opaque, independent model driving the final. Not that there's anything wrong with predicting the outcome of the race. I just wouldn't have expected my PPs to do that or me. Both of which are weird things to say.
Looks like the tie-up between TFUS and DRF continues piecemeal. I still have to buy TFUS PPs to get a serviceable summary of the TFUS figs I want to use. TFUS figs are still appended to DRF tools in a way that's hard to consume, rather than truly integrated with the platform. I guess DRF is till clinging to Beyers and keeping TFUS speed figs at arms length while embracing the pace figs. Which just seems kind of conspicuous and counterproductive after all these years.
TFUS is obviously lacking in deeper research capability than Formulator, and I'd seek just a few more basic metrics from TFUS for it to be a single source (I usually complement with BRIS and wager on Twinspires accordingly), but I otherwise don't mind conceding the trove of Formulator information that often as not would just lead me down rabbit holes to red herrings anyway.
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