The coronavirus

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by hcap

Has it ever occurred to you, you live in an alternate universe, anti-scientific bubble, first initiated by Sarah Palin's "lame stream media", and blown up beyond all reason by Trump?

YouTube

[Tor Ekman]

Lose the weight: https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/covid-...eople-experts/

A coronavirus vaccine, once found, likely won’t be as effective in protecting people who are obese, researchers have warned.

So lose the weight or die from either Covid or a cardiovascular event.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by hcap

I was probably too hard on the chimp. If he brought banana flavored cookies to kindergarten, he would figure which orifice they go in.

However he asked if the governors or the moron were responsible for whatever piss-poor mitigation efforts the US made.

Totally unaware that some governors reacted properly, but most did not, while the moron twiddled hi thumbs, with scarce leadership. Telling us "it will just go away and meanwhile inject Lysol".

You should look up the definition of a "false dichotomy."

Hey Tom, why did Europe handle to virus much better than we? They have a European Union, and each country acted together.

They also believed in science

Hey Harry, you simpleton - I asked you a simple questions - WHO is responsible for shutting down the economies of the states - and YOU are not smart enough (read: TOO F/ing STUPID) too answer. It is NOT Trump making the local decisions. False dichotomy? You should look au the differences between the US and Europe. HERE, the POTUS does NOT run the local states. That is the GOVERNORS job. You left nut wing jobs cry when Trump tried to send federal police in to protect FEDERAL property - make up your mind - it can't be that hard, yours being so GD small....you are playing both sides of the road because you have no understanding of how the nation works. Typical democrat - dumber than dirt.

And same goes for little dog 46, too.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by davew

facts backed by what?

Backed by BLATHER of course.

hcap sees so much stuff on the internet and it confuses his poor little brain. He has no clue what any of it means. To him, it all shinny objects and he reacts. You get a better debate from Chatty Cathy than hcap.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by Tom

Hey Harry, you simpleton - I asked you a simple questions - WHO is responsible for shutting down the economies of the states - and YOU are not smart enough (read: TOO F/ing STUPID) too answer. It is NOT Trump making the local decisions. False dichotomy? You should look au the differences between the US and Europe. HERE, the POTUS does NOT run the local states. That is the GOVERNORS job. You left nut wing jobs cry when Trump tried to send federal police in to protect FEDERAL property - make up your mind - it can't be that hard, yours being so GD small....you are playing both sides of the road because you have no understanding of how the nation works. Typical democrat - dumber than dirt.

And same goes for little dog 46, too.

Hey Tom, you did not ask....

"WHO is responsible for shutting down the economies of the states?"

You babbled.....

So you have one of two options now - who is responsible for the mitigation - Trump of the states.

You have a sever case of the boxcarian impaired memory flu. Shutting down is only one form of mitigation, and governors did it with little federal guidance, and no coordinated plan. So as one region got better, another region re-infected the first

Kindergarten is a calling you

[Tom]

Originally Posted by hcap

Hey Tom, you did not ask....

You babbled.....
You have a sever case of the boxcarian impaired memory flu. Shutting down is only one form of mitigation, and governors did it with little federal guidance, and no coordinated plan. So as one region got better, another region re-infected the first

Kindergarten is a calling you

Hey EINTSTEIN......same thing. Trump did not shut down the economy - dems did, and the WORST states so far are DEM STATES.

Trump provided all the resources the states asked for - just some were like you, too stupid to use them correctly.

[davew]

hcap, "WHO is responsible for shutting down the economies of the states?"

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by hcap

Instead of assuming the media, epidemiologists and medical professionals are lying, the more rational approach is we just do not understand this disease fully yet.. Your earlier post you speculated it seems to run it's course and declines someway without explaining why or how.
Are you implying the disease is not as serious as the "media" and medical community makes it out to be?

I never said they were LYING. I said their models are seemingly WRONG.

The data is telling us what's happening in the real world.

You don't start with a theory and then continue pretending it's right even though the data says it's wrong. You figure out why your model is wrong and try to come up with a new theory and better model.

That's what those climate guys did in the paper I posted MONTHS AGO. They looked at the data and tried to come up with a rational explanation for what they were seeing in the real world and a new model that gave ranges of what the herd immunity level would be given different assumptions (much lower than commonly thought and possibly as low at 20% in some places depending on conditions and behavior).

Here's an article from the NY Times on the subject. Maybe you'll believe this source or you could just listen to me when I tell you I found a very useful analysis and optimistic possibility.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/h...?smid=tw-share

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I never said they were LYING. I said their models are seemingly WRONG.

The data is telling us what's happening in the real world.

You don't start with a theory and then continue pretending it's right even though the data says it's wrong. You figure out why your model is wrong and try to come up with a new theory and better model.

That's what those climate guys did in the paper I posted MONTHS AGO. They looked at the data and tried to come up with a rational explanation for what they were seeing in the real world and a new model that gave ranges of what the herd immunity level would be given different assumptions (much lower than commonly thought and possibly as low at 20% in some places depending on conditions and behavior).

Here's an article from the NY Times on the subject. Maybe you'll believe this source or you could just listen to me when I tell you I found a very useful analysis and optimistic possibility.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/h...?smid=tw-share

All wrong and you are correct?

Even without a degree in epidemiology, I can speculate as well as you why there is a slowing in exponential groeth, and why your your premise is exaggerated. Yes, there is an auto immune response, that is not well understood, but "herd immunity" is not needed to attenuate exponential community spread. Just some.

Gottlieb says U.S. likely "a long way" from herd immunity to virus
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/scott-g...ce-the-nation/

Gottlieb said seroprevalence studies overall indicate that roughly 8% of the U.S. population has been exposed to the coronavirus, though the rate of exposure varies depending on whether states have experienced outbreaks. In Arizona, for example, roughly 25% of the population has been exposed based on modeling, while as much as 20% of the population in Florida has been exposed, he said.

"That's getting closer to a level of immunity where the rate of transmission will start to decline," Gottlieb said. "It's not quite herd immunity, but you're to see declines in the rate of transmission because of that level of infection."

Originally Posted by you

Once the virus breaks out in an area there is exponential growth in cases until about 10% (give or take) of the population is infected. Then the growth rate starts to decline and flatten. Then as more people get infected the new cases start declining (Texas and Florida are recent examples). Once you get into the 20%-30% range in the area it more or less slows to a trickle (like NY and NJ).

Why does any infectious disease run it's course in a given population? Why didn't previous deadly serious viruses and bacteriological diseases wipe out the human race long ago? There are a number factors I can think of that affect exponential community spread that given enough time, fatalities and suffering, will attenuate the initial "wildfire" growth of the coronavirus. I find it hard to believe epidemiologists and professional public health professionals have not factored those well known factors into their models you think you understand way better than they do. Total herd immunity is not needed to slow community spread. Just some auto immune response will cut the Ro numberr or contagious rate. What you are proposing is a waiting period that will bring much more fatalities and suffering than using active mitigation efforts that have proven effective

Your are an anti-science amateur climatologists claiming to know better what to do about climate change, applying your same presumptuous method to epidemiology.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by Tom

Hey EINTSTEIN......same thing. Trump did not shut down the economy - dems did, and the WORST states so far are DEM STATES.

Trump provided all the resources the states asked for - just some were like you, too stupid to use them correctly.

You are reducing a complex situation to a simplistic false dichotomy. You did that all the time with your idiotic two Bens theory of climate change. Things are rarely either black or white. Usually a thousands shades of grey. You refuse to think in those terms.

You practice knee-jerking, not thinking

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by hcap

All wrong and you are correct?

Even without a degree in epidemiology, I can speculate as well as you why there is a slowing in exponential groeth, and why your your premise is exaggerated. Yes, there is an auto immune response, that is not well understood, but "herd immunity" is not needed to attenuate exponential community spread. Just some.


Why does any infectious disease run it's course in a given population? Why didn't previous deadly serious viruses and bacteriological diseases wipe out the human race long ago? There are a number factors I can think of that affect exponential community spread that given enough time, fatalities and suffering, will attenuate the initial "wildfire" growth of the coronavirus. I find it hard to believe epidemiologists and professional public health professionals have not factored those well known factors into their models you think you understand way better than they do. Total herd immunity is not needed to slow community spread. Just some auto immune response will cut the Ro numberr or contagious rate. What you are proposing is a waiting period that will bring much more fatalities and suffering than using active mitigation efforts that have proven effective

Your are an anti-science amateur climatologists claiming to know better what to do about climate change, applying your same presumptuous method to epidemiology.

Did you even read the article?

Now you don't even believe what many mainstream epidemiologists are saying when they admit their own models and assumptions may have been wrong and it's reported by a left wing paper like the NY Time months after I told you about the ongoing data research that indicated there may be a problem with the prevailing model.

Now you are really hopeless.

I thought you were a science and facts guy?

This is obviously a waste of time. You have no interest in reality.

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by hcap

Things are rarely either black or white. Usually a thousands shades of grey. You refuse to think in those terms.

used to tell an ex lady friend that...

ps...you need to buy yourself a mirror...and practice WHAT you preach...

[davew]

Originally Posted by davew

hcap, "WHO is responsible for shutting down the economies of the states?"

should I rephrase this question into something easier to understand?

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by davew

should I rephrase this question into something easier to understand?

Draw him a picture.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Did you even read the article?

Now you don't even believe what many mainstream epidemiologists are saying when they admit their own models and assumptions may have been wrong and it's reported by a left wing paper like the NY Time months after I told you about the ongoing data research that indicated there may be a problem with the prevailing model.

Now you are really hopeless.

I thought you were a science and facts guy?

This is obviously a waste of time. You have no interest in reality.

I read it and it still is not a "fact". Still speculation. Have you read any of the rigorous science contrary?

WHO says COVID-19 herd immunity ‘not a solution we should be looking to’
Health Aug 18, 2020 8:35 AM EDT
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/...-be-looking-to

Herd immunity is has been discussed no end here. We do not know. We only know there is an immune response to some extant, and we do not know if it is lasting. More importantly you Trumpites proposing a "waiting period" denies fatalities and suffering that will occur during that waiting period. We do know however active mitigation works.

Contrast Brazil with the European Union. Brazil, no lockdown. The EU a coordinated lockdown.