Question for Cali players

[WinterTriangle]

I avoid these tracks, mostly because it's a very steep learning curve for somebody at my level (only a few years into racing).

this is the problem I have with synthetics, and why I don't wager those tracks, is because they are not all the same. It's not like a 3rd surface, more like 3rd, 4th, and 5th surfaces. Because Pro Ride at SA is not poly at Woodbine, and is not poly at Turfway, Keeneland, Delmar, Arlington. And then we have tapeta, which is a whole 'nother ball game. and then, there was Hollywood.

(this was so obvious today, watching MTB struggle on it, yet Gitano glided over it). of course, MTB was coming off 10 week layoff, and from what I read, trainer didn't expect MTB to do great here, it was more like a test. But he did fine on woodbine poly, not SA pro ride.

so----Unless I get someone to "tutor" me on the subtle surface differences of woodbine, SA, keeneland, delmar, arlington, I can't even BEGIN to handicap these races.

Whereas, dirt is dirt, and turf is turf. So, I've learned this year to just stick with those, because it makes sense to me.

I might want to tackle plastic at some point, any thoughts on reading?

Again, it's not just that it's plastic. It's that there are so many DIFFERENT forms of it.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

I avoid these tracks, mostly because it's a very steep learning curve for somebody at my level (only a few years into racing).

this is the problem I have with synthetics, and why I don't wager those tracks, is because they are not all the same. It's not like a 3rd surface, more like 3rd, 4th, and 5th surfaces. Because Pro Ride at SA is not poly at Woodbine, and is not poly at Turfway, Keeneland, Delmar, Arlington. And then we have tapeta, which is a whole 'nother ball game. and then, there was Hollywood.

(this was so obvious today, watching MTB struggle on it, yet Gitano glided over it). of course, MTB was coming off 10 week layoff, and from what I read, trainer didn't expect MTB to do great here, it was more like a test. But he did fine on woodbine poly, not SA pro ride.

so----Unless I get someone to "tutor" me on the subtle surface differences of woodbine, SA, keeneland, delmar, arlington, I can't even BEGIN to handicap these races.

Whereas, dirt is dirt, and turf is turf. So, I've learned this year to just stick with those, because it makes sense to me.

I might want to tackle plastic at some point, any thoughts on reading?

Again, it's not just that it's plastic. It's that there are so many DIFFERENT forms of it.

It seems as if you may be misinterpreting a wide spectrum of important details. Aside from those details is the more important underlying point = The depth, variance and complexity of this game are part of what make it a superior game of skill. Please don't ask for this game to be simplified.

[Bobzilla]

WT, there appears to me to be some variance between the different brands of engineered surfaces as well. A given track might also seem capricious over the course of a day. I think the same can be said, however, for the surfaces that we collectively refer to as dirt or turf, but arguably less so.

As for Mine That Bird. His trainer admitted to being a little disappointed but did offer the suggestion that maybe it was a race he needed. MTB's rider, IMO, stated what I think was the more likely reason for the disappointing finish and that was MTB isn't the same horse on a synthetic than he is on dirt. Now I know MTB was the Canadien 2yo champ last year having won a series of races including the graded Grey stakes over Woodbine's Polytrack. My best guess would be that he won those races because he was so much the more talented that it didn't matter whether or not he was performing on his most suitable surface. Once a horse earns the right to compete against others of comparable talent, especially in G1 Stakes, I do think that the surface becomes a more important variable to weigh when handicapping. Personally, I'm not expecting much improvement from MTB in the Classic, and I highly suspect that Summer Bird will not perform to his best ability in that race as well. Time shall tell and I'd be happy if I'm proven wrong. The funny thing for me is that if either one ran in an Allowance or G3 over the Pro-Ride and won going away, the conventional wisdom would be that they loved the surface. I think many of the G1 winners we see in Cali, particularly leading up to the TC, are probably dirt horses beating up on other dirt horses who have less tolerance for the surface. I'm not sure about POTN who despite a strong Derby, might have been more of a turf animal, but we've seen turf animals in the past run well on dirt when they first attempt it. Many argue that RA should have ran in the BC because she was proven over the Keeneland Polytrack last fall when she won a preliminary allowance. If memoery serves, I don't think that was a day in which there was much closing. Furthermore, if she were to compete over a synthetic against top European turf stars then her task would be infinitely more difficult then the one she had last October when she defeated a field to which she was undoubtably superior. Not saying she couldn't pull it off, but I do think she would have much to overcome.

[andymays]

My take is a little slanted but in my perfect world we would throw everyone associated with synthetic in the United States in jail. The sentence would be equal to the length of time they've made me suffer through it (except in areas with wet weather)!


The last couple of days at Keenland it seemed to favor speed when the surface was wet but as it dried out through the day yesterday it seemed to help the closers. I was in the TVG contest and used the 40-1 shot in the last to get into contention because of his route/turf to sprint angle and his price. When you look through the PP's down the road it's hard to factor the drying out Poly in unless you keep detailed records for the next time these same horses run.

2009-10-10 15:06:17 Bet* Keeneland 10 Trifecta $0.50 4+8+10/4+8+10/1+3+4+5+8+10 $12.00 $662.05
2009-10-10 15:06:47 Bet Keeneland 10 Superfecta $0.30 4+8+10/4+8+10/3+4+5+8+10/1+3+4+5+8+10 $16.20
2009-10-10 15:07:00 Bet* Keeneland 10 Exacta $2.00 4+8+10 $12.00 $432.60
2009-10-10 15:07:12 Bet* Keeneland 10 Win $5.00 10 $5.00 $205.50
2009-10-10 15:07:20 Bet Keeneland 10 Place $6.00 10 $6.00 $74.40


At Santa Anita we saw Gitano Hernando who had never won a graded race before win the grade 1 Goodwood. That speaks volumes about the quality of the other runners in the race. In my pick 4 I used Monzante and Gitano Hernando to kick it off but I used Monzante in my TVG contest play and that most likely cost me the tournament. Then like an idiot I throw out the winner of the last because I felt he ran too close to the pace to win at Santa Anita. Typical of a Jockey changing a horses style on synthetic surfaces, Talamo took this horse a little further off the pace and won. I was an idiot for not using it. I ended up winning for the day anyway but should have won much more. I thought Zenyatta was vulnerable and was very very wrong.


2009-10-10 15:34:14 Bet* Santa Anita 7 Pick-4 $1.00 6+8/1+4+5/1+5+8+9/2+4+5+6+9 $120.00
2009-10-10 15:36:19 Bet* Santa Anita 7 Pick-3 $1.00 6+8/1+4+5/1+5+8+9+11 $30.00 $324.70
2009-10-10 15:36:21 Bet* Santa Anita 7 Pick-3 $1.00 6+8/1+4+5/1+5+8+9+11 $30.00 $324.70
2009-10-10 15:36:51 Bet* Santa Anita 7 Trifecta $1.00 4+6+8/4+6+8/2+3+4+6+7+8 $24.00 $557.50
2009-10-10 15:37:15 Bet* Santa Anita 7 Superfecta $0.50 4+6+8/4+6+8/2+3+4+6+7+8/2+3+4+6+7+8 $36.00 $1442.75
2009-10-10 15:37:47 Bet* Santa Anita 7 Exacta $8.00 4+6+8 $48.00 $799.20

[bisket]

there are differences in dirt courses as well. this is just something that you have to pay attention to on a horse to horse basis. its always a variable. on certain courses i give more weight to a horse running well over it. one thing i have noticed is horses that run well on delmar run well on santa anita. the hollywood surface is a different animal altogether and form doesn't necessarily transfer from hollywood to either santa anita or del mar.

[Robert Fischer]

I was watching and hoping that Mine That Bird would be Heavily backed. If he were heavily bet, I was going to single col john 1/2/3 in a trifecta without MTB in any slot and without Tiago in any slot, with a group of contenders 1/2/3 respectively.
Then repeat that bet but single Tiago 1/2/3 without MTB and Col john in any of the 1/2/3 slots.

I said this in a simple form on twitter a day or two before.


With Mine That Bird at only 5-2 / 7-2 i scrapped that idea. Even with the KD win , the undeserved hype, and the 24hr webcam promotion there simply wasn't a large enough player population to bet the fan favorite down low enough. Blame it on poor use of mass media, blame it on slots, blame it on Takeout, blame it on "innacurate data" even blame it on synthetics i don't care, but I was hoping for some more "dumb" money.

i wasn't planning to use the awful tres nachotacos 1st or 2nd or informed 1st and it turns out with GH winning , The trifecta turned out to be big enough that I would have won after all, I just wasn't thrilled with the idea of the average combination based on the (lack of) win money on MTB and the exacta probs I was seeing.

Mine that Bird isn't a real good surface barometer because he ran to about his level of talent in the Goodwood (4/5 of those who beat MTB are simply stronger horses, and maybe Chocolate Candy is slightly worse than MTB and CC beat him, but Tiago is clearly better and MTB happened to beat Tiago).
THis is similar to saying Curlin couldn't handle synthetics after Curlin made the biggest move in the 2008 BCC, and although that move was premature and thrust him into the role of prey rather than predator with a lot of stretch run to go. (rather than exclude Rachel , Albaraduh's ride on Curlin in the 2007 Kentucky Derby deserves a LONG look. Was it the intangibles like "seasoning" as was blamed, or does Curlin compete for or win the DERBY outright if Albarduh goes up the rail along with Sedgefield ??)

back on track:
these tracks are all different and Andy Mays (who although he opposes synthetic, is very bright) mentions the phrase "except in areas with wet weather" - dirt, turf (and arguably synth but who's counting) can become EXTREME cases of bias in wet weather. It isn't fair to focus on the sloppy tracks that forward flyers fantasize, or the Turf bog or mires with extreme slow downs in fractional pace, however we can't ignore them either when discussing surface changes.

Even dirt or turf is unique from course to course and even when you think you have perfectly equal track Surface, the "track configuration" can bite u in the asmussen - imagine a race from the chute starting effectively on the turn, using a funny run up (timer)distance, with a short run to the 1st turn, using the downhill turf, with the temp rail out 80 feet, using the alternate finish line position etc.... etc...

lol there is a lot of detail and complexity.
Not trying to disrespect the original poster. It can be certainly frustrating

[Dan H]

In Chapter Six of Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century, Steve Davidowitz discusses synthetic track handicapping. He recommends close observation of early races to detect a speed or closing bias and equal study of synthetic track maintenance. The former is pretty standard for all surfaces, but the latter was a revelation to me (and could explain track to track irregularities). He also provides insight to nine different synthetic tracks, four in California.

[46zilzal]

The big problem with most, but not all synthrocrap courses, is how to handle shippers. Woodbine tends to have only a small percentage of shippers and then mostly on the green so that one is easier than most in that regard.

It plays very consistently THROUGH any one program. Might be the exception although I hear the same thing about Turfway.

[Imriledup]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

I avoid these tracks, mostly because it's a very steep learning curve for somebody at my level (only a few years into racing).

this is the problem I have with synthetics, and why I don't wager those tracks, is because they are not all the same. It's not like a 3rd surface, more like 3rd, 4th, and 5th surfaces. Because Pro Ride at SA is not poly at Woodbine, and is not poly at Turfway, Keeneland, Delmar, Arlington. And then we have tapeta, which is a whole 'nother ball game. and then, there was Hollywood.

(this was so obvious today, watching MTB struggle on it, yet Gitano glided over it). of course, MTB was coming off 10 week layoff, and from what I read, trainer didn't expect MTB to do great here, it was more like a test. But he did fine on woodbine poly, not SA pro ride.

so----Unless I get someone to "tutor" me on the subtle surface differences of woodbine, SA, keeneland, delmar, arlington, I can't even BEGIN to handicap these races.

Whereas, dirt is dirt, and turf is turf. So, I've learned this year to just stick with those, because it makes sense to me.

I might want to tackle plastic at some point, any thoughts on reading?

Again, it's not just that it's plastic. It's that there are so many DIFFERENT forms of it.

Even though the surfaces are all different in So Cal, i think that they play fairly consistent. In other words, you're not going to lose too many races because a runner was compromised by a bias and you tossed him out because his line looked bad and then he came back to win while bias aided.

A lot of these races have moderate pace scenarios and the biases don't really change all that much. If the pace is too fast, closers will win.

I think that the thing you need to know about plastic in Calif is that on many occasions TRACKS will win races and not horses. For example, in the Pac Classic, if you knew the track, you knew that the winner or runner up was going to be coming 7 wide from far back. This is what made Richard's Kid an amazing longshot, he figured to get that type of trip and had Zenyatta's Rider who's known for being extremely patient on these types. The track won that race more than the horse won it.

I think becoming an expert in So Cal racing is just paying close attention to visuals. Watch the races carefully, watch the gallop outs, watch the head ons and really learn the horses and don't worry so much about 'bias' intracacies. You know, you do the best you can, if a track seems to favor closers, really make some notes and remember this for next time.

What i do with these other places (like Kee and Arl) is to just watch a few races and see if speed dies. If speed dies, than i try and exploit a race where there might be a more than honest pace and try and pounce with my closing crew.

[HUSKER55]

I am finding out that there is a difference in almost any track you want to go to and the reason for the difference is "because there is".

I am probably wrong, but, I think that if you are going to be successful you have to keep tabs of what the track is doing in relation to your method of handicapping, today.

I know there are good sets of pars out there. Dave Schwartz makes a good one. But in the end, I think you have to know the current condition of your track.

JMHO

[kitts]

I've been playing for 50 years, mostly California tracks. If you are convinced that these tracks are unplayable, don't play them. I play them and HOL, DMR and GG have treated me well. SA never has and probably never will. My advice is to ignore the Synthetic track doomsayers and make your own decision. Most obvious to me was that early speed seldom dominates the way it used to, but that is fairly easy to get around. And Steve Davidowitz' advice on Synthetics I found helpful. It is sorta like when Turf racing first started years ago-there were plenty of doomsayers then but here we are with turf racing an accepted fact. I am not of the opinion that fine tuning your 'capping to accomodate Synthetics is going to make a big disfference. The bottom line is if you can make money on Synthetics, go for it. If you cannot, then drop those tracks which is easy to do in this day and age.

[toetoe]

Originally Posted by kitts

Most obvious to me was that early speed seldom dominates the way it used to, but that is fairly easy to get around.

Can you say more about this, Kitts ?

[BetCrazyGirl]

Hi, I'm new here obviously but I've read the forums time to time, anyways, I agree with Husker and Kitts and mainly play the Cali tracks since I live in Cali. It hasn't seemed any worse or better to me in handicapping the surfaces here compare to other tracks/surfaces.

[andymays]

Originally Posted by BetCrazyGirl

Hi, I'm new here obviously but I've read the forums time to time, anyways, I agree with Husker and Kitts and mainly play the Cali tracks since I live in Cali. It hasn't seemed any worse or better to me in handicapping the surfaces here compare to other tracks/surfaces.

Welcome to the Board!

[JeremyJet]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Please don't ask for this game to be simplified.

There is also no reason to make the game more complex than it already is. Synthetics, IMHO, do just that.

Regards,

JeremyJet