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Old 04-04-2021, 01:58 PM   #31
Spalding No!
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I remember having a conversation with a friend years ago about the SA Derby. He thought it was becoming a 2nd tier Derby prep race. Then Bob Baffert showed up.
Kind of odd take at the time; the 10 Santa Anita Derbies prior to Baffert winning with Cavonnier produced classic winners Ferdinand, Snow Chief, Winning Colors, Sunday Silence, A P Indy, Tabasco Cat, and Timber Country.
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Old 04-04-2021, 02:18 PM   #32
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Kind of odd take at the time; the 10 Santa Anita Derbies prior to Baffert winning with Cavonnier produced classic winners Ferdinand, Snow Chief, Winning Colors, Sunday Silence, A P Indy, Tabasco Cat, and Timber Country.
There was period where it didn't produce a winner for awhile and some people thought it was fading. I don't remember the exact years, but I remember the conversations.

Baffert is in a different league now. He gets so many top young horses every year now it's bound to produce major contenders regularly.

These things have to be somewhat random also. If there are "x" major preps, each one is going to have a dry spell from time to time even if nothing has actually changed in terms of trainer preferences.
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Old 04-04-2021, 02:39 PM   #33
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There was period where it didn't produce a winner for awhile and some people thought it was fading. I don't remember the exact years, but I remember the conversations.

Baffert is in a different league now. He gets so many top young horses every year now it's bound to produce major contenders regularly.
Probably was the synthetic surface years (although Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky was in that era).

Baffert hasn't had a complete run of the CA table. Wayne Lukas, Dave Hofmans, Neil Drysdale, John Shirreffs, Doug O'Neill, and Art Sherman have all won classic races with California horses (though not all started in the SA Derby) since 1996.

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These things have to be somewhat random also. If there are "x" major preps, each one is going to have a dry spell from time to time even if nothing has actually changed in terms of trainer preferences.
A few years back I did a tally and all the major preps pretty much were on even terms with classic winners and classic-placed horses. All the calendar changes in the last few years have skewed things considerably.
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Old 04-04-2021, 03:04 PM   #34
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The track layout at Aqueduct is also causing issues with having a normal schedule, with the penultimate prep being a turnback to a mile and one turn.

Jerome, 1 turn mile
Withers, 1 1/8 miles
Gotham, 1 turn mile
Wood, 1 1/8 miles

Who thought that was a great idea?

When you consider the final 2yo prep is the early December Remsen at 1 1/8, it gets even worse.
The people who think we need more GR 3 races?
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Old 04-04-2021, 03:13 PM   #35
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I think that has become more of an issue in recent years.

The top NY barns always went to Florida for the winter. So the NY winter ALW and Stakes races would always tend be weaker. But the Wood would still draw some of the best 3yos that shipped back and from elsewhere. I can't remember the old schedules, but having 3 major preps on the same day can't be ideal for all of them.

It may also be a little cyclical and random.

I remember having a conversation with a friend years ago about the SA Derby. He thought it was becoming a 2nd tier Derby prep race. Then Bob Baffert showed up.
I remember the old NYRA route - Swift, Bay Shore, Gotham, Wood.
6,7,8,9 furlongs.
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Old 04-04-2021, 04:32 PM   #36
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Not too bad by Aqueduct standards, but definitely a few quirks.
I will add I don't agree with Beyer on the two 7f races. I broke them out, don't think the difference is near as big as the clock indicates. I could be wrong, but since I use pace also keeping the races rated together would rate the 2/3 finishers in the Carter as also running gigantic figures and I don't believe they did.

I've seen enough of this happening at Aqueduct to know it isn't a rare occurrence. There have been many days with abrupt changes in track speed.
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Old 04-04-2021, 04:36 PM   #37
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Excellent points.

Ironically, I meant to ask you if you are willing add the San Vicente to your Derby chart even though it is not a 'points' race. Despite this, it has been significant for the lead up to the Derby with Nyquist, Texas Red, Exaggerator, Into Mischief, Silver Charm, Free House, Came Home, The Factor, Sidney's Candy, Creative Cause, and Battle of Midway using it as a starting point in the past 25 years.

Last year Nadal took it and this year Concert Tour so it is still drawing the late bloomers at least. Hard to get a thorough read on the lightly raced types.
This is how the San Vicente looked this year, and I showed the next start for the horses that have run back:

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Old 04-04-2021, 04:41 PM   #38
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All of this is true (regarding NY prep climate), but it's a good thing for Chad Brown and his Owners, where he can keep or ship back some of his good horses for points and purse money$$.
Pletcher certainly had a nice outcome out of the prep in the Wood.

Anyone who wants to ship up, can do so, and they could have caught a soft field in the Wood.

Nobody 'fired' in the Wood, yesterday. Kind of a perfect storm, Where Risk Taking and both Prevelance and Brooklyn Stron all STUNK!

Allowance horse won that race! 89 Beyer!!



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I will add I don't agree with Beyer on the two 7f races. I broke them out, don't think the difference is near as big as the clock indicates. I could be wrong, but since I use pace also keeping the races rated together would rate the 2/3 finishers in the Carter as also running gigantic figures and I don't believe they did.
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I've seen enough of this happening at Aqueduct to know it isn't a rare occurrence. There have been many days with abrupt changes in track speed.
That's an interesting difference of opinion. I like your judgement of the track, as well as the TimeformUS stuff where I believe they use a number to designate the track (+ red/blue color-coded track bias), and Andy has been doing some Track Bias stuff as well.
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Old 04-04-2021, 04:52 PM   #39
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This is how the San Vicente looked this year, and I showed the next start for the horses that have run back:
Thanks a lot.

I wonder why Freedom Fighter didn't show up for the Bay Shore. He was listed as a possible and I presumed he was going to run because he stayed in NY and was breezing regularly after the Gotham.
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Old 04-04-2021, 05:06 PM   #40
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Thanks a lot.

I wonder why Freedom Fighter didn't show up for the Bay Shore. He was listed as a possible and I presumed he was going to run because he stayed in NY and was breezing regularly after the Gotham.
Interesting. Doesn't seem like a surface that would suit him, maybe pointing to a Derby weekend race at CD?
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Old 04-05-2021, 08:30 AM   #41
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I could be wrong, but since I use pace also keeping the races rated together would rate the 2/3 finishers in the Carter as also running gigantic figures and I don't believe they did.
We've had this discussion a thousand times since we first met.

You know I agree that using pace figures to help with some of those marginal decisions is a huge advantage in the figure making process.
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Old 04-07-2021, 05:29 PM   #42
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All in all, Wood was a garbage race.
As expected when I first saw the PPs.

Came back even worse than expected.

Hey guys, FL opening soon.....just saying.
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Old 04-07-2021, 05:56 PM   #43
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Does Aqueduct always play that slow, or did they tinker with the surface? Search Results ran a comparatively slow race in her final Kentucky Oaks prep, too.
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Old 04-07-2021, 08:21 PM   #44
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Does Aqueduct always play that slow, or did they tinker with the surface? Search Results ran a comparatively slow race in her final Kentucky Oaks prep, too.
It was the slowest Wood in history on the raw clock.
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Old 04-07-2021, 09:55 PM   #45
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Does Aqueduct always play that slow, or did they tinker with the surface? Search Results ran a comparatively slow race in her final Kentucky Oaks prep, too.
It has been very slow since the inner was removed. It varies from slow to molasses to moondust.
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