Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 20 votes, 3.50 average.
Old 05-03-2017, 02:45 PM   #601
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,616
BEL Race 4 3:04 (9)
3/1
3/1
9/1
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-03-2017, 03:04 PM   #602
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,616
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
BEL Race 4 3:04 (9)
3/1
3/1
9/1
On both
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-03-2017, 03:07 PM   #603
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,616
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
On both
That sucked
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-03-2017, 03:23 PM   #604
johnhannibalsmith
Registered User
 
johnhannibalsmith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
Race 5 I might as well dabble in because if I completely misread the race, it won't be alarming with this gaggle of pretty weak maidens.

The Entry. The one that I like is Uncle Chester. When he gets the lead, he can get tough. His seven furlong turf races are just what I like - including one in which he was victorious but ultimately disqualified to third.

The problem is, on paper, there looks like a ton of pseudo-speed. Not a lot of really fast horses, but a lot of horses that seem inclined towards sitting close to the front whenever possible.

Two ways to come at this one - dismiss Chester outright as a pace casualty or play guess which trainer won't stand in the paddock and declare that there's a lot of pace in here, so don't get caught up in the battle. I think that the trainer that definitely says nothing of the sort is Chester's trainer. He's proven that's how he runs well. And furthermore, you have a somewhat intriguing other part of the entry that only furthers the point in that the barn probably wants Chester to either run his race controlling or making the pace hot for the other POE.

So, at double-digits, gotta take a shot.

Along that line, Captain Kitt needs a meltdown and he might get it. Currently 25-1 and can't imagine he gets below 20-1 and I think this is the sort of spot you have to give him enough of a chance to think 20-1 is a pretty fair offer.
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."

-Robert James Smith, 1989
johnhannibalsmith is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-03-2017, 04:14 PM   #605
johnhannibalsmith
Registered User
 
johnhannibalsmith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
Kudos to the NYRA pregame with TLG and Stabile which I caught about ten minutes of and nearly the entire time was spent talking about Esther the Queen, with both guys more or less declaring her an auto-play considering the 15-1 M/L and her better races. 15-1 turned out wishful, but still going to pay more than $15.00.
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."

-Robert James Smith, 1989
johnhannibalsmith is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-03-2017, 05:14 PM   #606
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,271
Bel R8

gimme the at 7-1 in possible wire job on his favorite course
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-03-2017, 05:18 PM   #607
PhantomOnTour
C'est Tout
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,271
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
Bel R8

gimme the at 7-1 in possible wire job on his favorite course
Cajun boy puts 'em to sleep
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
PhantomOnTour is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-03-2017, 05:27 PM   #608
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
Live plays for Wednesday, May 3rd at Belmont Park:

BEL-R2- King of New York (KY) 12-1 I Ortiz, Jr. - S M Asmussen

BEL-R4- Between the Lines (NY) 5-1 E Cancel - R R Rodriguez

BEL-R5- Saratoga Colonel (NY) 20-1 C H Velasquez - G Weaver

BEL-R6- Really (KY) 12-1 I Ortiz, Jr. - R R Rodriguez

BEL-R8- Roman Approval (KY) 10-1 K Carmouche - M J Maker
Results= Roman Approval [10-1] 1st - 17.40 7.40

Daily Plays= 5
Daily Winners= 1
Daily Net= +7.40

Total Plays/Belmont= 19
Total Winners= 2
Strike Rate= 10%
Running Total= -1.40
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-03-2017, 05:50 PM   #609
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
BELMONT 5/3

4TH ALRIGHT ALRIGHT 7/2 XXX

6TH ASIAN'S WAY 5-1 XXX

7TH COSI BELLA 5-1 XXX

8TH ROMAN APPROVAL 10-1 $17.40


Good Luck

-NCG
1 FOR 4 TODAY / 3 FOR 9 TOTAL -33%

Bet $18.00 - Returned $36.20

Avg mutuel $12.07 +$18.20 ROI +$2.01


"You're good, Kid. But as long as I'm around, you're second best"
-NorCalGreg
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-03-2017, 05:53 PM   #610
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
1 FOR 4 TODAY / 3 FOR 9 TOTAL -33%

"You're good, Kid. But as long as I'm around, you're second best"
-NorCalGreg
I'm glad I light a fire in you.....KID..
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-03-2017, 06:01 PM   #611
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
I'm glad I light a fire in you.....KID..
haha "KID"...why, I got a son your age, boy.

What are you, like.. 30?
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-03-2017, 06:08 PM   #612
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
haha "KID"...why, I got a son your age, boy.

What are you, like.. 30?
My son is 38, I'll be the big Six-O in the fall...
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-03-2017, 06:18 PM   #613
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
My ID says I'm 60...but I made up a fake birthdate ID when I was 11, so I could buy booze.

Just never changed it back. 💳
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-03-2017, 07:39 PM   #614
whodoyoulike
Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
Quote:
Originally Posted by whodoyoulike View Post
Bel 05/03/17 BPP#1


race 5 7f T sMdn62 $62k 3up arthur avenue (E/P 2) (8/1)

race 6 6f T cl40n2L $40k f/m 3up asian's way (P 3) (5/1)

race 7 8f Alw77n1x $77k f 3yo cosi bella (E/P 5) (5/1)

race 8 10f T oc62n2x $90k 3up or n3x or cl62.5k mr maybe (S 0) (2/1)
race 5 7f T sMdn62 $62k 3up arthur avenue (E/P 2) (8/1)
Finished 10th @ 14.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 Winner Bpp#4 in 81.70

Quote:
ARTHUR AVENUE kept an eye on the front runners from the inside, doing so while pulling on the bit down the backstretch, came off the turn and soon backed away.
race 6 6f T cl40n2L $40k f/m 3up asian's way (P 3) (5/1)
Finished 9th @ 3.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 Winner Bpp#12 in 68.90

Quote:
ASIAN'S WAY chased the pace along the inside coming under coaxing five-sixteenths from home, spun three wide into upper stretch, offered no response.
race 7 8f Alw77n1x $77k f 3yo cosi bella (E/P 5) (5/1)
Finished 4th @ 2.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 Winner Bpp#5 in 101.32

Quote:
COSI BELLA saved ground early, slipped to the outside past midpoint on the turn, shifted out into path six during the initial portion of the stretch, got outfinished.
race 8 10f T oc62n2x $90k 3up or n3x or cl62.5k mr maybe (S 0) (2/1)
Finished 3rd @ 3.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 Winner Bpp#6 in 120.64

Quote:
MR MAYBE just off the inside in pursuit from mid pack, came under coaxing midway on the far turn, angled six wide into upper stretch, closed well through the stretch but was just nailed for the place honors on the wire.
whodoyoulike is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-03-2017, 11:35 PM   #615
whodoyoulike
Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
Bel 05/04/17 BPP#1


race 5 8f Alw50 $55k 3up dogtown (E 8) (9/5)

race 6 7f T sMC40 $41k f/m 3up driven by speed (P 2) (6/1)

race 7 10f T Alw90 n1x $90k f/m 3up nw2x taralena (E/P 6) (5/2)

race 8 7f oc62.5 n2x $80k 3up nw3 or cl62.5 gypsum johnny (E/P 5) (2/1)
whodoyoulike is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply





Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:40 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.