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07-11-2016, 10:42 PM
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#91
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
... that if almost everyone in Europe trains and rides that way...
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That is another myth with no real basis in fact. I don't know how it got started but last time I actually researched racing in England the pace was actually generally faster for turf races than it is in North America.
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07-11-2016, 11:35 PM
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#92
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
That is another myth with no real basis in fact. I don't know how it got started but last time I actually researched racing in England the pace was actually generally faster for turf races than it is in North America.
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I don't know what the fractions are, but you can see them finishing stronger than they go out. The racing is more like our turf racing than our dirt racing.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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07-12-2016, 12:10 AM
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#93
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,333
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I don't know what the fractions are, but you can see them finishing stronger than they go out. The racing is more like our turf racing than our dirt racing.
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This is superfluous even for you.
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07-12-2016, 12:13 AM
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#94
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EMD4ME
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I saw your post.
Here's my reply.
If you actually were moving that amount. And winning that amount.
You would have ZERO time for the never ending drivel you force upon us.
100% of what you post is trolling crap. My ignore isn't fake. It's very real. I see your name on a post and ignore it.
Period.
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
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07-12-2016, 12:31 AM
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#95
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7,510
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Don't think they run mile races on the inner.
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I could be wrong about that one.
Thanks. But you do understand what I am referring to.
When those one turn turf event are started just before the back stretch begins and they use that "Swimming pool rope looking thing" as a guide....Tghe inside posts in these usually get kind of pushed from the outside speed horses. So for example posts 1 and 2 it would seem that early speed horses usually don't make the lead early on
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07-12-2016, 12:47 AM
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#96
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,272
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thespaah
I could be wrong about that one.
Thanks. But you do understand what I am referring to.
When those one turn turf event are started just before the back stretch begins and they use that "Swimming pool rope looking thing" as a guide....Tghe inside posts in these usually get kind of pushed from the outside speed horses. So for example posts 1 and 2 it would seem that early speed horses usually don't make the lead early on
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They run 1m16 on both courses but only run 1m on the Widener (outer).
Both 1m16 races have those swimming pool rope "rails" you're referring to.
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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07-12-2016, 01:01 AM
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#97
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
OK, this stuff is just flat out incorrect. Here is every turf race in my database going back to the beginning of 2009. It shows where the winner was after the four furlong (the official first call) for all races on turf at least 8 furlongs in distance and not more than 9 furlongs. These are the vast majority of turf races in North America.
There are 26,143 races that fit. The totals are given in raw numbers and percentage of the total. This is a rough query that doesn't take field size into account. I can do that later on if people are interested, but experience tells me it won't change the general trend. Horses running 1st early win more often than horses running second early. Horses running second early win more than horses running third early, and so on. Horses running last early win way less than should be expected.
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No doubt your stats are correct. The problem is that many bettors confuse what it takes for a horse to win on the lead on the dirt with what it takes to win on the lead on the turf.
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07-12-2016, 06:10 AM
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#98
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 9,047
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
100% of what you post is trolling crap.
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Pot meet kettle
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07-12-2016, 06:38 AM
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#99
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Just Deplorable
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lebanon, Ohio
Posts: 8,068
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
That is another myth with no real basis in fact. I don't know how it got started but last time I actually researched racing in England the pace was actually generally faster for turf races than it is in North America.
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Larger courses, wider turns?
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07-12-2016, 07:44 AM
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#100
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,088
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I don't know what the fractions are, but you can see them finishing stronger than they go out. The racing is more like our turf racing than our dirt racing.
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Somewhat true. But how come no one is talking about the Suburban Saturday. Grade 2 horses (on dirt) walking around the fast track. Supposedly, some of the best the east coast has this year. Fractions 25.31, 49.34, 1.12.7, 1.36.5, 2.01.04 with some riders taking back.........and diving to the rail....... Is it any wonder that Samraat almost held on? One guy gets aggressive and most of the others pull back, that's part of the problem turf or dirt. Mike Smith was the only one that stayed close and he won. The rest of the trips in that race were absurd with horses of that caliber. Its just not as aggressive as it used be IMO. Some races are an absolute merry go round. I did not like Samraat but I take advantage of speed all summer long because of this "new" mentality. The stats CJ is giving lead you to speed and stalkers.....both surfaces. Some races get "heated early" but its almost a rarity or out of the norm. Don't bitch about it people, jump on it and cash.
Last edited by burnsy; 07-12-2016 at 07:47 AM.
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07-12-2016, 08:43 AM
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#101
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
I saw your post.
Here's my reply.
If you actually were moving that amount. And winning that amount.
You would have ZERO time for the never ending drivel you force upon us.
100% of what you post is trolling crap. My ignore isn't fake. It's very real. I see your name on a post and ignore it.
Period.
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You made the statement (that someone is out there leveraging the change of the game and making money).
I not only responded , that I'm one of them, I proved it (just like you post your contest wins here).
People don't like to see that someone can win real money at this game. It makes them feel even worse (about their inability to do so). I don't blame you for your response, that's human nature.
Why do make time to post here? Because I truly love the game, like most of us here.
You subtly questioned. I politely answered with proof. Don't know what else I can say. I refuse to turn another thread into a Vic pissing match .
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07-12-2016, 09:01 AM
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#102
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsy
Somewhat true. But how come no one is talking about the Suburban Saturday. Grade 2 horses (on dirt) walking around the fast track. Supposedly, some of the best the east coast has this year. Fractions 25.31, 49.34, 1.12.7, 1.36.5, 2.01.04 with some riders taking back.........and diving to the rail....... Is it any wonder that Samraat almost held on? .
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You'll have to take my word on this.
When I went to the track Saturday, my plan was to play Noble Bird because there was very little speed in the race and he had the rail starting on the turn (at the time I didn't know the rail suspect). I thought he'd shake loose and come back with a much better effort. When he was scratched, I thought it was more apparent there was no speed in the race, but less obvious who would go.
The only 2 possibilities I could come with were Effinex and to a lesser degree Samraat because he had back speed. Samraat was worked a little aggressively pre race. So I thought it was likely he was going to go and Effinex would stay close.
I didn't see anything unusual about that race.
I could see someone thinking Samraat wasn't good enough even if he controlled the pace and I could see someone a little hesitant about Effinex's form, but I think the race figured to have a very slow pace with those 2 taking advantage of it.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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07-12-2016, 09:20 AM
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#103
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
This is superfluous even for you.
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I'm rarely going to disagree with any of your specific race complaints. I just think these occasional crawl fests that are pissing people off are an accidental byproduct of doing what is generally correct in turf route racing on both continents (maybe some courses and conditions are exceptions).
Think back to a couple of those SA Breeder's Cup cards when speed was an advantage on dirt. Eventually, the riders got so crazy aggressive they started causing races to collapse even though it was a speed favoring track.
Getting more aggressive was the correct thing to do, but sometimes they over compensated and erred. That's what's happening here. They are trying to back down the paces because it's harder to wire turf routes. But sometimes they are overcompensating and allowing some slug to wire.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 07-12-2016 at 09:24 AM.
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07-12-2016, 09:35 AM
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#104
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
That is another myth with no real basis in fact. I don't know how it got started but last time I actually researched racing in England the pace was actually generally faster for turf races than it is in North America.
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Did you watch the races at Royal Ascot? any race around turns was NOT run at a fast pace. the staying races are not fast. The sprints on the straight and straight miles of course are run at a fast pace. North America has no comparable races.
Allan
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07-12-2016, 10:41 AM
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#105
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
Did you watch the races at Royal Ascot? any race around turns was NOT run at a fast pace. the staying races are not fast. The sprints on the straight and straight miles of course are run at a fast pace. North America has no comparable races.
Allan
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Where did I say they were run at a fast pace?
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