NYRA TURF ROUTES

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Was just curious.

Oh...Per my equibase virtual stable. I will be betting Star Hill this Saturday when he goes in the Indiana Derby.
Star Hill breaks from post ...ML Odds 6-1
Check him out....

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by thespaah

Oh...Per my equibase virtual stable. I will be betting Star Hill this Saturday when he goes in the Indiana Derby.
Star Hill breaks from post ...ML Odds 6-1
Check him out....

I probably would have won the Belmont Tournament had he won last time. At the 1/4 pole I would have quintupled my bet. Didn't think he could lose and if he did he was a cinch to finish 2nd.

Well he finished 3rd and I was playing catchup the rest of the day. But here's the thing. There's no way I can imagine him getting a better trip, race shape, set up, ride, you name it. When the dust cleared he, dare it say it, hung like John Holmes when the money was on the line.

There's is absolutely no doubt in my mind he's good enough. However, I have serious concerns about his work ethic and heart.

If you play him IMO you must get several points over perceived market value and be in line to cash big. Make sure you get paid handsomely for being right.

I am terrified when everything goes dead on balls perfect and no soap. Sometimes I can't trust them to a big bet ever again. Caveat Emptor.

Best of luck.

V J S

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

A race deemed unhandicappable by definition HAS in fact been handicapped extensively to have been deemed as such.

IMO there's nothing wrong with that. In fact it's correct to call it that and move on.

Correct and prudent.

The point I'm trying to make is those who feel the strategy of the instructions and rides makes it too tough to quantify. Certainly have the right to pass and move on to the next puzzle. Nobody would blame them for that.

However, as I said before. Somebody, in fact many, have chosen to accept this challenge. And actual $$$ was distributed to the winners.

What I'll never understand is when people whine AFTER the fact that their opinion of what was going to happen early in the race didn't occur.

All that means is what YOU thought was likely to transpire didn't. To blame that on ANYBODY rather than owning it is crazy.

A race is a puzzle to be solved with many different components. If what you "think" should or will happen doesn't there is only one place the buck stops. In your lap. Or wallet.

Someone else saw it totally different and won your $$$. Solution? There are many. Work harder. Work longer. Do races you feel more comfortable with. Look within and accept being wrong. Own it rather than looking for an excuse to embrace denial and massage your ego.

A 7/2 shot pays $9.00 on every race on the planet. If IYO the NYRA jocks colony makes it too hard to find enough of those. Focus elsewhere.

I'll give you one thing, you have LOTS of nerve.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I probably would have won the Belmont Tournament had he won last time. At the 1/4 pole I would have quintupled my bet. Didn't think he could lose and if he did he was a cinch to finish 2nd.

Well he finished 3rd and I was playing catchup the rest of the day. But here's the thing. There's no way I can imagine him getting a better trip, race shape, set up, ride, you name it. When the dust cleared he, dare it say it, hung like John Holmes when the money was on the line.

There's is absolutely no doubt in my mind he's good enough. However, I have serious concerns about his work ethic and heart.

If you play him IMO you must get several points over perceived market value and be in line to cash big. Make sure you get paid handsomely for being right.

I am terrified when everything goes dead on balls perfect and no soap. Sometimes I can't trust them to a big bet ever again. Caveat Emptor.

Best of luck.

V J S

Been following this hoss since he broke his maiden. Much better around 1 turn.
Two turn races leave a lot to be desired.

If I owned him he,d be pointing to the Kings bishop not this race.

Love the horse. Bad spot.

Allan

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

I'll give you one thing, you have LOTS of nerve.

The post I made was designed to respond to all that have been saying the NYRA turf races were " unhandicappable". Your post was the latest to say many feel that way. That's why I copied it. However, when I was using the word "you" I wasn't singling any one person out.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I spent a lot of time trying to formulate a theory as to why the surfaces are different (including biased dirt surfaces), but in the end, as long as you know they are you can adjust your thinking on how to handicap them.

Robert99’s 2007 assertion about traction on dirt is mostly what you need to know about the difference between a turf surface and a dirt surface.

However Michael “Mick” Peterson, Ph.D., University of Maine White Paper of 2014 offers a deeper insight with the following excerpt:

“Horse‐hoof‐track interaction – Energy from the shock of contact with the ground, and forces owing to changing the momentum of the legs and body are transferred through the hoof. It is well documented that the amount of energy and magnitude of forces depend strongly on the properties of the track surface, but there are several complicating factors:

First, each surface property has a different effect on the energy and forces experienced by the horse.

Second, the energy and force magnitudes change throughout the footfall (stance) and swing phase.

Third, shoes modify the mechanics at the hoof‐track interface.

Fourth, the horse’s own conformation and anatomical construction contribute to the manner in which it interacts with the track.”

Hope this helps.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I probably would have won the Belmont Tournament had he won last time. At the 1/4 pole I would have quintupled my bet. Didn't think he could lose and if he did he was a cinch to finish 2nd.

Well he finished 3rd and I was playing catchup the rest of the day. But here's the thing. There's no way I can imagine him getting a better trip, race shape, set up, ride, you name it. When the dust cleared he, dare it say it, hung like John Holmes when the money was on the line.

There's is absolutely no doubt in my mind he's good enough. However, I have serious concerns about his work ethic and heart.

If you play him IMO you must get several points over perceived market value and be in line to cash big. Make sure you get paid handsomely for being right.

I am terrified when everything goes dead on balls perfect and no soap. Sometimes I can't trust them to a big bet ever again. Caveat Emptor.

Best of luck.

V J S

Im looking for at least 10-1.....If I don't get it, I may pass. I think he's ready to go though. We'll see.
One item. I am a visual type. I like to see them in the paddock and watch them warm up.
Not being at the track obviously makes that impossible...So.....

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by thespaah

Im looking for at least 10-1.....If I don't get it, I may pass. I think he's ready to go though. We'll see.
One item. I am a visual type. I like to see them in the paddock and watch them warm up.
Not being at the track obviously makes that impossible...So.....

Very difficult indeed. There are a few I trust to tell me how they look and are warming up.

Headed up for sure by the excellent and talented combo of Maggie and The Mig at NYRA.

But I certainly feel ya. Nothing better than actually being there.

[Dahoss9698]

5th at Saratoga another great example of a race where you'd like to find out what kind of instructions riders were riding to. Or did they come up with the stupidity by themselves.

Rosario on 1 broke on top and could have had an easy lead. Instead he deferred to an impossible 50-1 shot that missed by a bob.

You can't handicap those stupid decisions

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

5th at Saratoga another great example of a race where you'd like to find out what kind of instructions riders were riding to. Or did they come up with the stupidity by themselves.

Rosario on 1 broke on top and could have had an easy lead. Instead he deferred to an impossible 50-1 shot that missed by a bob.

You can't handicap those stupid decisions

Good to see you back

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Can't be a pissing match. Because I don't care.

I'm quite sure you're a phony. But I don't care about that either.

I don't think you actually want anyone to believe you. It seems like you enjoy just messing with folks.

That's cool. Have fun. I don't care.

Actually, he's a lot of things, but when it comes to his betting, he's not a phony.

[Thomas Roulston]

But why no 7 1/2-furlong turf races at Saratoga?

Not counting any run-up - which could be made somewhat longer than at other distances - there would be a 367-foot run into a 977-foot turn. In 7 1/2-furlong races at the Fair Grounds the run is 480 feet into an 814-foot turn - so don't say they can't do it.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

But why no 7 1/2-furlong turf races at Saratoga?

Not counting any run-up - which could be made somewhat longer than at other distances - there would be a 367-foot run into a 977-foot turn. In 7 1/2-furlong races at the Fair Grounds the run is 480 feet into an 814-foot turn - so don't say they can't do it.

No offense man, but who cares about running 7 1/2 furlong races? It is a distance usually associated with minor league tracks.

[Thomas Roulston]

Gulfstream is a minor-league track?

It is one of their most popular distances - and having no races between 5 1/2 furlongs and 1 mile is really, really bush league.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

Gulfstream is a minor-league track?

It is one of their most popular distances - and having no races between 5 1/2 furlongs and 1 mile is really, really bush league.

I think you'd be in the vast minority with that thinking. Gulfstream is only a top track a few months a year and they run few if any graded stakes at that distance.