*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[cloud9]

Greg just a quick question about the Pony Picker method .
Why are you going back three Bris speed figs for your score ?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Says the pro from Mayberry...say does Emmit still have that Fix-it Shop? 🚦

Naw, but Gomer's working on your '98 Corolla at Wally's gas station, as we speak....

[Winger]

Bought Platinum awhile back. Used it for the first time today. Caught this nice little ticket.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Winger

Bought Platinum awhile back. Used it for the first time today. Caught this nice little ticket.

Nice.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Naw, but Gomer's working on your '98 Corolla at Wally's gas station, as we speak....

You know that dang Wally wants $150 for a new battery? I told him forget it---just put a solar panel on the roof. That way I can start my car--AND run my laptop for PENNIES a day!

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by cloud9

Greg just a quick question about the Pony Picker method .
Why are you going back three Bris speed figs for your score ?

Dennis:

This particular method--I didn't write. I found it in some publication somewhere, and it was just different from other methods. I did change it up a little bit---but the "3rd race back" speed rating was part of the original method. I had planned on changing it--but it worked well enough that I left that part as is. I added a class component--that's really the only thing I've changed.--NCG

[JeffH]

I was messing around today with the 4 spot plays from Pony Picks and the Value Bets, Hot List, and Horizontal Comp report from the Exotic Bets. I put the horses that were listed at least once from these 7 categories into a spreadsheet.

From there I looked at odds close to post time and bet the horses that would get me a 100% ROI. I used 2-3 horses per race using the dutching method on the Paceview site.

Here is how it turned out today: Total (accepted wagers): $371.00 $372.40 + $1.40.

On the surface it doesn't look great. But I had 5-6 horses at decent prices just barely get beat, ran 2nd with a few others-losing to the favorites or low priced horses, being down $100 after the first 7 or so bets, I don't think it's that bad.

I know the goal is to make money, and doing all of this for $1.40 may seem absurd to some. But like I said, I was just messing around today. And I think there are possibilities here.

Any comments are welcome-positive or negative.

[bruin95]

Originally Posted by Winger

Bought Platinum awhile back. Used it for the first time today. Caught this nice little ticket.

What ticket? I don't see anything.

[JeffH]

Originally Posted by bruin95

What ticket? I don't see anything.

I was wondering about that as well.

[bruin95]

Originally Posted by JeffH

I was messing around today with the 4 spot plays from Pony Picks and the Value Bets, Hot List, and Horizontal Comp report from the Exotic Bets. I put the horses that were listed at least once from these 7 categories into a spreadsheet.

From there I looked at odds close to post time and bet the horses that would get me a 100% ROI. I used 2-3 horses per race using the dutching method on the Paceview site.

Here is how it turned out today: Total (accepted wagers): $371.00 $372.40 + $1.40.

On the surface it doesn't look great. But I had 5-6 horses at decent prices just barely get beat, ran 2nd with a few others-losing to the favorites or low priced horses, being down $100 after the first 7 or so bets, I don't think it's that bad.

I know the goal is to make money, and doing all of this for $1.40 may seem absurd to some. But like I said, I was just messing around today. And I think there are possibilities here.

Any comments are welcome-positive or negative.

Any day where you end up with more money than you had at the start is a good day, regardless of the amount.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by JeffH

I was messing around today with the 4 spot plays from Pony Picks and the Value Bets, Hot List, and Horizontal Comp report from the Exotic Bets. I put the horses that were listed at least once from these 7 categories into a spreadsheet.

From there I looked at odds close to post time and bet the horses that would get me a 100% ROI. I used 2-3 horses per race using the dutching method on the Paceview site.

Here is how it turned out today: Total (accepted wagers): $371.00 $372.40 + $1.40.

On the surface it doesn't look great. But I had 5-6 horses at decent prices just barely get beat, ran 2nd with a few others-losing to the favorites or low priced horses, being down $100 after the first 7 or so bets, I don't think it's that bad.

I know the goal is to make money, and doing all of this for $1.40 may seem absurd to some. But like I said, I was just messing around today. And I think there are possibilities here.

Any comments are welcome-positive or negative.

Interesting, Jeff. One thing...some of these methods need odds minimums. Here's my dilemma:
If I put odds restrictions --that obviously cuts down on plays and many people want more plays. There are no odds restrictions on PonyPicker....you're more or less to decide your own fate. I can tell you that BOSS shouldn't be played at less than 9-2, but I didn't force that in.

Try your research with a 3-1 minimum ML...that usually cuts out the favorite, anyway...and see if any improvement in ROI.

I wanted to ask if you wouldn't mind "live" demo'ing your Exotic wagering methods you mentioned a couple pages back. I'm as curious as anyone to see if you can turn a profit.

[JeffH]

[QUOTE=JeffH;2162211]Just to clear things up, after scratches, the Horizontal Report had the following at Belmont:

Race 7) 2-4-1A-7 (4)
Race 8) 6-7 (2)
Race 9) 13 (1) =$8 bet

The results were as follows:

Race 7) 1A $34.20
Race 8) 6 $17.40
Race 9) 13 $5.70

$ 1 Pick 3 paid $918.00

Is this the one you are referring to? It was on page 222.

I don't play anything below 4-1 anyway. Using the dutching method you have on your site, I would be spending too much money to get the ROI I want.

[JeffH]

Originally Posted by JeffH

I think the best way to play the pick 3 and 4 using the programs is this: Using the Exotic Bets program, find the sequence(s) that the Horizontal Report picks that cost no more than $16 for a $1 play. In a 9 race card that equals 7 races at $16/ race = $112 in pick 3 bets at the most. Use 50 cents for the pick 4 which is the equivalent of a $32 bet at $1. So an entire 9 race card betting all pick 3's and 4's would cost no more than $144. If the sequence looks to be dominated by low priced horses, just skip that sequence.

Or is this the one you were looking at? This was on page 221.

[oughtoh]

What track were you playing Jeff, Churchill? SA had to Easy Winner plays today. Both won and paid $2.80 & $16.40. On the second winner if you added the 123 horse and boss horse with it you had a $188 Trifecta. The 123 method only had 2 winners. The $2.80 & a $7.40. There is 7 easy winners, before scratches, tomorrow at Santa Anita, but only one over 5/2.

[JeffH]

I was playing a lot of tracks and a lot of races. I played races at Belmont, Gulfstream, Churchill, Tampa Bay, and Woodbine. I played a few races at Santa Anita. I played close to 40 races today. The fact that I broke even looks even better when you consider this.