*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[RaceWitch]

Thanks for sharing Greg; will play your Keen tonight and hope to catch some squid

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Lets take a look at a race TOMORROW...instead of races already run.

I like to find races with an overwhelming favorite--that clearly doesn't belong there. His numbers are so dominating compared with the rest of the field--I like to call them "sucker bets".

Once in a while they actually win the race--but these horses have this strange propensity to run 2nd. Today's 7TH @ Gulfstream is just such a horse--3/5 ML TONINA. Any 3/5 horse is a ridiculous wager anyway...but the bettors are going to ooh and ahh when they look at this one's sparkling numbers..."She can't lose" they'll say.

Well yes these horses can and do lose every day. Check Tonina's huge numbers---why are they giving away this horse for half what it's supposed worth?

I like to just scratch horses like this..and try to find the 2nd best. Sometimes you can find a sweet payoff since the favorite is taking so much money in the win pool.

The 2nd best horse looks like LIBERTY ROAD @ 9/2 ml. If Tonina scratches--then all bets are off, because Liberty Road would probably become favored.

If Tonina's numbers look highly suspicious to you--then you know what a sucker bet looks like. A lot of times these horses don't even get claimed. Wouldn't you like to know that bit of info BEFORE the race? Then you would have an excellent idea this horse isn't sound...if other expert horsemen have looked him over and passed.

So I'm going to assume (12 hours before racetime) that TONINA's presence here is a fire sale--and bet the next best-looking horse..LIBERTY ROAD.
I really don't look at horses pre-race...so unless Tonina has front wraps up to her eyeballs..or is walking with a cane...they
pretty much just look like horses to me.

Good luck-NCG

*btw...Tampa Tip Sheet is up on the website free for today WED

This is almost exactly the way I see the race as well.The only downside is not that im agonizing over whether to bet against Tonina (who of course could win for fun)....its like you said Liberty Road will likely be the clear second choice.Wish there was more "form" to speak of in the race, to draw money away from her,as i see her running one of her better races today.
Lets hope we get a decent price.

[jay68802]

Interesting reading. The problem with Liberty Road is that she is also a fire sale. Dropped from 30,000 to 12,500 in January and has run like it. To me Tonina is a example of a horse being dropped in class for the money. If she gets claimed, she is very close to a break even horse for her connections. Any 3 yr old entered to be claimed is a red flag, but in this case I think the only other option in the race is Ecliptical My Way. Recent claim by a trainer who wins off the claim, getting a Jockey upgrade, and entered in a route which is her game.
With a morning line of 8-1 and a trainer angel of 2-1, I can bet this horse lightly on top and mostly under Tonina in the exactas. If her speed figures were a little stronger and had been earned on the dirt, I would be playing her on top strongly. Look forward to watching the race and seeing the outcome.

[NorCalGreg]

Yeah, Jay and Max....this race COULD have gone a number of ways--but alas, TONINA scratched out .

Now it's just another race--we get to find who was right about the Second Best Horse---good luck guys--NCG

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Yeah, Jay and Max....this race COULD have gone a number of ways--but alas, TONINA scratched out .

Now it's just another race--we get to find who was right about the Second Best Horse---good luck guys--NCG

It just became a lot less interesting.

[jay68802]

Agree, but now Eliptical becomes a strong play.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Yeah, Jay and Max....this race COULD have gone a number of ways--but alas, TONINA scratched out .

Now it's just another race--we get to find who was right about the Second Best Horse---good luck guys--NCG

By the way was it a trainer or vet scratch?

[NorCalGreg]

#7 Tonina Scratched - Veterinarian

[jay68802]

That means you were right, fire sale!

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by jay68802

That means you were right, fire sale!

Yeah...instead of a $9.00 payoff I was looking for....SOMEONE got a $4.20 payoff (I didn't bet it after the scratch)

Oh well....on to the next

[jay68802]

Could not bet the 2 either, saved by the odds.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Anyone up for a little exacta action? Got fine PLATINUM plays from all over the country....don't worry--these never lose!!

I only even bother to look them up when I need some pocket money---gotta go walkin around Oakland tomorrow.

A pocketful of cash can save you a serious beatdown--those battered and bloodied BART riders? They made the mistake of riding public transit--with NO MONEY. Who does that?

PLATINUM EXACTAS

INDY
5TH JERSEY CHASER 4-1 BELLA BAILOR 7/5
7TH ANNUITY 4-1 CURLISH FIGURE 5/2
CTX
3RD IDENTITY THEFT 4-1 LIL ESCAPE ARTIST 5-1
EVD
2ND MRS GUTY 9/5 MINE YOURS AN OURS 9-2
3RD BOOTH ROAD SHINE 8-1 A JUSTIN SOUND 5-1
4TH LAL'ATELIER3-1 CARSON'S KATIE 6-1
6TH CREATIVE ART 2-1 STAND HIM UP 8-1
GPX
4TH TWO STEP BLUES 4-1 LOVIN EMPIRE 3-1
9TH LOST FOR WORDS 2-1 ULTIMATE DUDE 7/2
KEEN
1ST STORMY PACIFIC 7/2 DOUBLE HOURS 4-1
6TH ORIENTAL CROWN 8-1 DUNK A DIN 3-1
7TH DONT BLAME ROCKET 8-1 7TH UNTIMED PLAY 6-1
PENN
4TH SPOTLIGHT 3-1 FIRE SPARX 6-1
5TH RICK'S BOY 9/2 TACTICAL PLAN 2-1
TAMP
4TH CALL ME JUSTIFIED 5-2 GALAXIA 7/2
5TH CAROLINA SPEED 8/5 K D'S CAT BIRD 4-1

16 Exactas...$2 up/back =$64 dollars American

book 'em

-NCG

We ended up with 12 "live" exacta plays (after scratches)
-of the 24 horses--11 ran out--7 won--6 ran 2nd
-Won 2 exactas paying $10.20 & $26.00
-wagered $48.00 -- returned $36.20 -$11.80

bleh...done better/done worse-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Didn't get much handicapping done today....didn't make a single bet---not counting getting my @$$ handed to me @ Horse Tourneys in another $12 sit and go...or whatever it's called.

My new plan is to just go head-to-head using software plays at a Platinum-friendly track.
I would say most of those participants can't handicap worth a sh*t---but I haven't won anything in several tries already--so perhaps I'm the one who can't handicap worth a sh*t

[dansan]

Whats the minimum you will accept on an exacta?

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by dansan

Whats the minimum you will accept on an exacta?

Those exactas come straight from the program...I don't do anything with them except post. I don't play them much--unless there are two 5-1+ top picks in the same race.